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Mark Buehrle, Marlins agree to 4 year/$58 million contract

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For what it's worth, the results of FanGraph's fansourcing experiment to see what their readers thought the contracts of FAs would be were released.

Buehrle's average result was 2.7 years, $11.1 million per.
Jackson's were 3.3 years, $10.4 million per.

Not saying it's worth much, except as a though experiment, but it's interesting to see the perceptions of each. People don't think their contracts will be too dissimilar.

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Buehrle should be our top priority. People are going to overpay for Wilson and Jackson because the market is thin, and IMO they are question marks. Buehrle proves year in and year out that he is a top of the line starter, and the guy is not as old as you'd think... Nothing scares me about him. If we are going to commit that kind of money to the rotation, and we can't afford mistakes, this is the guy.


I think there are certainly reasons not to want to sign him:

He'll be 33 years old opening day.
He doesn't strike anyone out.
He doesn't have elite home run prevention skills.
He relies on his defense a lot, and there's no guarantee we'll be running out a great one behind him.

I'm not saying we shouldn't sign him, but there's no upside left in him anymore, and there's always the possibility that things catch up to him. I'd be fine if we did, but I wouldn't expect a whole lot more than a 4 ERA every year.

Yes, at an almost guaranteed 200+ innings, a 4 ERA is really cool. He would absolutely solidify our staff. But it's a safe move that has very little upside. I can absolutely see why people wouldn't be big on it.
I think that's a fair assessment..

My argument would be that Buehrle has been the same pitcher his entire career... he won't blow you away but he's a terrifically intelligent pithcer who works extremely fast and has great mechanics. So for the next 3 years I see no reason why his ability won't stay the same.. which with a move the NL, his upside would be an ERA closer to 3 than 4... which would be extremely valuable to us.

I know a "clubhouse guy" and "fan favorites" are dirty words around here.. but he's got that going for him too... not that it really matters.

I think yours is a much better assesment than the one you quoted, Lou.

Keep in mind, the Florida Marlins DO NOT sign pitchers to deals past 3 years unless their name is Josh Johnson. That basically means Jackson is definitely out, considering he will most certainly command a 4-6 year deal and I don't see Beinfest handing out a guarantee like that to Jackson.

NOW, I certainly see a 3-year deal in Buehrle's future... Like you said, he has been the absolute model for consistency, the same way Javy Vazquez has been, and almost every sign says you will not lose by signing him. The Marlins talk about spending money wisely, let's give the dollars to a guy that has shown he ALWAYS deserves his salary and will only grab a 3-year deal anyway...
Nice jab at bobbob, even though he actually used facts and Iowa simply painted some broad strokes (not that there's anything wrong with broad strokes, just that they don't qualify as a "much better assessment" than facts).

And your analysis is garbage. The pre-2011 Marlins spending habits are borderline irrelevant. They haven't been a player for a major free agent starting pitcher for a very long time, and not with the promise of the new revenue stream.

Vazquez was miserable for a couple of months and brilliant for a couple. He ended with good stats, sure, but not a "consistent" season. And his last 4 ERAs were 4.67, 2.87, 5.32, 3.69. His average yearly ERA change is greater than 2.00. Yeah, a model of consistency.

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Buehrle should be our top priority. People are going to overpay for Wilson and Jackson because the market is thin, and IMO they are question marks. Buehrle proves year in and year out that he is a top of the line starter, and the guy is not as old as you'd think... Nothing scares me about him. If we are going to commit that kind of money to the rotation, and we can't afford mistakes, this is the guy.


I think there are certainly reasons not to want to sign him:

He'll be 33 years old opening day.
He doesn't strike anyone out.
He doesn't have elite home run prevention skills.
He relies on his defense a lot, and there's no guarantee we'll be running out a great one behind him.

I'm not saying we shouldn't sign him, but there's no upside left in him anymore, and there's always the possibility that things catch up to him. I'd be fine if we did, but I wouldn't expect a whole lot more than a 4 ERA every year.

Yes, at an almost guaranteed 200+ innings, a 4 ERA is really cool. He would absolutely solidify our staff. But it's a safe move that has very little upside. I can absolutely see why people wouldn't be big on it.
I think that's a fair assessment..

My argument would be that Buehrle has been the same pitcher his entire career... he won't blow you away but he's a terrifically intelligent pithcer who works extremely fast and has great mechanics. So for the next 3 years I see no reason why his ability won't stay the same.. which with a move the NL, his upside would be an ERA closer to 3 than 4... which would be extremely valuable to us.

I know a "clubhouse guy" and "fan favorites" are dirty words around here.. but he's got that going for him too... not that it really matters.

I think yours is a much better assesment than the one you quoted, Lou.

Keep in mind, the Florida Marlins DO NOT sign pitchers to deals past 3 years unless their name is Josh Johnson. That basically means Jackson is definitely out, considering he will most certainly command a 4-6 year deal and I don't see Beinfest handing out a guarantee like that to Jackson.

NOW, I certainly see a 3-year deal in Buehrle's future... Like you said, he has been the absolute model for consistency, the same way Javy Vazquez has been, and almost every sign says you will not lose by signing him. The Marlins talk about spending money wisely, let's give the dollars to a guy that has shown he ALWAYS deserves his salary and will only grab a 3-year deal anyway...

You actually think some team might offer Edwin Jackson 6 years?
You think Buehrle is not capable of getting more than 3?

The Marlins don't spend more than 3 years on pitchers because they've never spent this way before. They spent on Josh Johnson because he's been the only pitcher in recent years to be awesome enough to get such a contract. At least when healthy. When did the Marlins come out with the policy saying they would never spend more than 3 years on a pitcher?

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For what it's worth, the results of FanGraph's fansourcing experiment to see what their readers thought the contracts of FAs would be were released.

Buehrle's average result was 2.7 years, $11.1 million per.
Jackson's were 3.3 years, $10.4 million per.

Not saying it's worth much, except as a though experiment, but it's interesting to see the perceptions of each. People don't think their contracts will be too dissimilar.

That seems about right (and a pretty cool idea).. I could definitely see Jackson getting a 4 year deal while Buehrle gets a 3 year deal with more per year. Something like 4/40 for Jackson and 3/36 for Buehrle

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The problem is that Edwin Jackson is right handed. I fail to see how he or any other right hander like him does anything at all to improve the rotation.

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The problem is that Edwin Jackson is right handed. I fail to see how he or any other right hander like him does anything at all to improve the rotation.


True. The organization would probably have no interest in a guy like that.

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http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/11/marlins-to-meet-with-mark-buehrle-.html?utm_medium=facebook&utm_source=twitterfeed
Marlins To Meet With Mark Buehrle

By Ben Nicholson-Smith [November 7, 2011 at 10:52pm CST]

The Marlins, who already obtained manager Ozzie Guillen from the White Sox this offseason, are now pursuing the most dependable starter the skipper had in Chicago, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. The Marlins will meet with free agent left-hander Mark Buehrle tomorrow.

Rosenthal reported earlier today that adding left-handed starting pitching is the Marlins' top offseason priority. C.J. Wilson, another free agent left-hander, concerns the Marlins because of his postseason control issues, according to ESPN.com's Buster Olney.

The Marlins aren't shying away from other top free agents. They have Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols on their radar and, according to Rosenthal, will meet with Jose Reyes Wednesday and Cuban outfielder Yoenis Cespedes Thursday. Pujols, Fielder, Reyes and Wilson are Type A free agents, while Buehrle qualifies as a Type B. He wouldn't cost the Marlins a 2012 draft pick and neither would Cespedes.

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