bobbob1313 Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Let's say he finishes the year with an .810 OPS but keeps up his current production for a week or two and the Marlins acquire him. How productive will his bat be for the Marlins for the remainder of the season? That's not really how one should expect regression to work. You don't say "Well, he has a .946 OPS right now, so he has to hit .700 the rest of the way to get to his career rate." What happened in the past should not affect the future. If you think his "true skill level" is an .810 OPS, then that would be what you expect him to do the rest of the way. You should make a trade based on what you expect him to do the rest of the way, based on what you consider his true skill level. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Beinfest Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 WillingHamR Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Erick Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Yes, I am. Probably more so than most major leaguers. Is he really a .900+ bat? Why buy high on a 33 year old with 2 years left on his contract with a reasonable possibility that he cools off a ton on a second half? As I said, I don't really want him. I'm just arguing what you said, which was: "He can be that bad offensively (low to mid .700s) or he can be much better than that--it depends." His lowest single season .OPS is .810 and this is now his 7th full season in the big leagues. Safe to say he can hit and he's had a pretty consistent career doing it. Let's say he finishes the year with an .810 OPS but keeps up his current production for a week or two and the Marlins acquire him. How productive will his bat be for the Marlins for the remainder of the season? That's rather impossible to answer. Unless if you're saying that because of what he's done so far this year, he's probably going to regress. Anyway, if you make a trade for him, you're making the trade thinking that you're adding a mid-.800 .OPS guy, which is basically what he's been in his career. By the way, his .810 .OPS year was last year playing for Oakland, a pitcher's park (121 OPS+). Also, it's possible that he's a different hitter now with more power. http://www.fangraphs...m-2012-sleeper/ seems to show that he became more pull-happy last year, resulting in better power #'s. That's translated to this year (.277 .ISO) in Minnesota. He'd be an upgrade to the lineup for sure. It's just probably not worth it based on what it'd take to acquire him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Yes, I am. Probably more so than most major leaguers. I don't think so. I think players go through peaks and valleys. Even the best ones. OPS by month for the batting MVPs over the last three years: Mauer, ’09: 1.338, .897, .845, 1.101, .958 Pujols, ’09: 1.132, 1.160, 1.283, .900, 1.092, 1.056 Hamilton, ’10: .845, .826, 1.297, 1.172, 1.078, .833 Votto, ’10: .904, 1.012, 1.029, 1.157, 1.053, 1.000 Braun, ’11: 1.181, .796, .923, 1.038, 1.057, .988 With the exception of Votto, who was kind of hilariously consistent that season, every one of them had differences of almost .400 OPS points in their MVP seasons. That's not a Josh Willingham thing. It's a baseball thing. No, he is not a .900 OPS bat. You don't bring him in with the expectation that he is. You bring him in with the expectation that he is an .800+ OPS bat. I'm talking about protracted stretches of time exceeding a single month. Obviously within a month, you can expect some outliers in OPS. How many of those players have had discrepancies in their half season splits going much beyond .100 OPS? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbob1313 Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 How many of those players have had discrepancies in their half season splits going much beyond .100 OPS? I'm not going to look them all up, but Pujols had a .170 gap in '09, a .103 gap in '11, a .154 in '07, and a .088 gap in '08. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Let's say he finishes the year with an .810 OPS but keeps up his current production for a week or two and the Marlins acquire him. How productive will his bat be for the Marlins for the remainder of the season? That's not really how one should expect regression to work. You don't say "Well, he has a .946 OPS right now, so he has to hit .700 the rest of the way to get to his career rate." What happened in the past should not affect the future. If you think his "true skill level" is an .810 OPS, then that would be what you expect him to do the rest of the way. You should make a trade based on what you expect him to do the rest of the way, based on what you consider his true skill level. I was just speaking hypothetically. Under such a scenario, Willingham would be a low-mid .700s bat, but still fill Erick's definition of being a "consistent" .800 bat. I'm trying to illustrate my definition of inconsistency. I'm aware that Willingham has been able to maintain .800 OPS consistently at season's end, but he's been inconsistent over large stretches of a given season. Having said that, I absolutely think you can consider such trends (if they exist), when predicting how the player will perform for the rest of the season. If he player has historically fallen into protracted stints of poor offensive production, it's something to keep in mind if you want to add him for the short term. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 By the way, his .810 .OPS year was last year playing for Oakland, a pitcher's park (121 OPS+). He sucked on the road, though. Edit: His home/road splits are pretty crazy this year too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Erick Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 I guess I get what you're saying, but there are two sides to that argument, as well. I've checked some of his monthly splits every year and he does tend to be up/down. With that said, just like you can say that he's probably bound to have a bad month or two, one can also say that Josh Willingham is also capable of carrying an offense for a month or two. Just like he's had some terrible months in his career, he's also had great months where his .OPS is north of 1.000. When you're a buyer at the trade deadline, you're always (or rather, usually) taking some sort of risk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 There really isn't a true sabermetric reason to predict his decline--I am fully admitting this. It's mostly just playing the odds, since it's happened enough historically for me to take notice. The odds make such a move more risky than I would like the Marlins to make, considering the fact that he has two more years under contract. The way I see it, he's a long term solution for a short term problem, and might underwhelm over the short term. That's basically my position here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammerhead Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Yes, I am. Probably more so than most major leaguers. Is he really a .900+ bat? Why buy high on a 33 year old with 2 years left on his contract with a reasonable possibility that he cools off a ton on a second half? As I said, I don't really want him. I'm just arguing what you said, which was: "He can be that bad offensively (low to mid .700s) or he can be much better than that--it depends." His lowest single season .OPS is .810 and this is now his 7th full season in the big leagues. Safe to say he can hit and he's had a pretty consistent career doing it. Let's say he finishes the year with an .810 OPS but keeps up his current production for a week or two and the Marlins acquire him. How productive will his bat be for the Marlins for the remainder of the season? That's rather impossible to answer. Unless if you're saying that because of what he's done so far this year, he's probably going to regress. Anyway, if you make a trade for him, you're making the trade thinking that you're adding a mid-.800 .OPS guy, which is basically what he's been in his career. By the way, his .810 .OPS year was last year playing for Oakland, a pitcher's park (121 OPS+). Also, it's possible that he's a different hitter now with more power. http://www.fangraphs...m-2012-sleeper/ seems to show that he became more pull-happy last year, resulting in better power #'s. That's translated to this year (.277 .ISO) in Minnesota. He'd be an upgrade to the lineup for sure. It's just probably not worth it based on what it'd take to acquire him. What do you think that would be? I mean obviously the Twins are going to be looking for prospects but as long as the main peice from us wasn't Yelich or Fernandez, I probably wouldn't be against it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sirspud Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 I'd bet money that he has a pretty mediocre second half. Mediocre is a huge upgrade at this point. Not really, considering he's not really much of a defender, either. He does nothing to improve the outfield defense. The Marlins should be able to piece together low .700 OPS offensive production without taking on Willingham's contract. You say this as if Willingham isn't a lot better than that, offensively. Not that I really want him, but he would certainly be an upgrade. He can be that bad offensively (low to mid .700s) or he can be much better than that--it depends. He's too inconsistent for me to want to go out and acquire him right now. I have little confidence that he can maintain this level of production for a full season. Tough crowd when a guy whose OPS has been .810-.863 every year in the majors is labeled inconsistent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOTtheILMarlins Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Willingham was always a great Marlin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canada-marlin24 Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 He just started a 3 year deal and the twins need him. Not happening. The Twins don't need him at all. They suck and would be better off trading him for assets that can benefit the future of their team. If the twins fix the bottom of their order they have a solid lineup. If they are like this by the trade deadline next year then maybe he gets traded. Letting him go now would make rebuilding quickly even harder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dom2613 Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 What about Carlos Quentin? Assuming he's healthy and hitting he could be a trade piece for the pads and he's an fa after this season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Erick Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 He just started a 3 year deal and the twins need him. Not happening. The Twins don't need him at all. They suck and would be better off trading him for assets that can benefit the future of their team. If the twins fix the bottom of their order they have a solid lineup. If they are like this by the trade deadline next year then maybe he gets traded. Letting him go now would make rebuilding quickly even harder. The Twins problem isn't exactly the bottom of their lineup. Their problem is...well, everything. They suck and their farm system isn't good, either. They have the worst run differential in the big leagues and should be rebuilding. They're not close to anything, with or without a 33-year old Josh Willingham. The Twins are a dysfunctional mess right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jokersgoon Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Trade for Mauer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammerhead Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 What about Carlos Quentin? Assuming he's healthy and hitting he could be a trade piece for the pads and he's an fa after this season. He's a terrible OFer but he makes up for it with his hitting. If he's healthy, he's a good name to throw out there. He might cost a little less than Willingham, too based on the time he's missed this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Trade for Mauer Why not Fielder? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammerhead Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Trade for Mauer Why not Fielder? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AeroFishOne Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Cabbage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mystikol87 Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Benched wins the interwebz. Also, I will forever read his posts in a Zoidberg voice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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