Jump to content

Bring back Willingham


Recommended Posts

Let's say he finishes the year with an .810 OPS but keeps up his current production for a week or two and the Marlins acquire him. How productive will his bat be for the Marlins for the remainder of the season?

 

 

That's not really how one should expect regression to work.

 

You don't say "Well, he has a .946 OPS right now, so he has to hit .700 the rest of the way to get to his career rate." What happened in the past should not affect the future.

 

If you think his "true skill level" is an .810 OPS, then that would be what you expect him to do the rest of the way. You should make a trade based on what you expect him to do the rest of the way, based on what you consider his true skill level.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes, I am. Probably more so than most major leaguers. Is he really a .900+ bat?

 

Why buy high on a 33 year old with 2 years left on his contract with a reasonable possibility that he cools off a ton on a second half?

 

 

As I said, I don't really want him.

 

I'm just arguing what you said, which was: "He can be that bad offensively (low to mid .700s) or he can be much better than that--it depends."

 

His lowest single season .OPS is .810 and this is now his 7th full season in the big leagues. Safe to say he can hit and he's had a pretty consistent career doing it.

Let's say he finishes the year with an .810 OPS but keeps up his current production for a week or two and the Marlins acquire him. How productive will his bat be for the Marlins for the remainder of the season?

 

That's rather impossible to answer. Unless if you're saying that because of what he's done so far this year, he's probably going to regress.

 

Anyway, if you make a trade for him, you're making the trade thinking that you're adding a mid-.800 .OPS guy, which is basically what he's been in his career.

 

By the way, his .810 .OPS year was last year playing for Oakland, a pitcher's park (121 OPS+).

 

 

Also, it's possible that he's a different hitter now with more power.

 

http://www.fangraphs...m-2012-sleeper/ seems to show that he became more pull-happy last year, resulting in better power #'s.

 

That's translated to this year (.277 .ISO) in Minnesota.

 

He'd be an upgrade to the lineup for sure. It's just probably not worth it based on what it'd take to acquire him.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes, I am. Probably more so than most major leaguers.

 

 

I don't think so. I think players go through peaks and valleys. Even the best ones.

 

 

OPS by month for the batting MVPs over the last three years:

 

Mauer, ’09: 1.338, .897, .845, 1.101, .958

Pujols, ’09: 1.132, 1.160, 1.283, .900, 1.092, 1.056

Hamilton, ’10: .845, .826, 1.297, 1.172, 1.078, .833

Votto, ’10: .904, 1.012, 1.029, 1.157, 1.053, 1.000

Braun, ’11: 1.181, .796, .923, 1.038, 1.057, .988

 

With the exception of Votto, who was kind of hilariously consistent that season, every one of them had differences of almost .400 OPS points in their MVP seasons.

 

That's not a Josh Willingham thing. It's a baseball thing.

 

No, he is not a .900 OPS bat. You don't bring him in with the expectation that he is. You bring him in with the expectation that he is an .800+ OPS bat.

I'm talking about protracted stretches of time exceeding a single month. Obviously within a month, you can expect some outliers in OPS.

 

How many of those players have had discrepancies in their half season splits going much beyond .100 OPS?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Let's say he finishes the year with an .810 OPS but keeps up his current production for a week or two and the Marlins acquire him. How productive will his bat be for the Marlins for the remainder of the season?

 

 

That's not really how one should expect regression to work.

 

You don't say "Well, he has a .946 OPS right now, so he has to hit .700 the rest of the way to get to his career rate." What happened in the past should not affect the future.

 

If you think his "true skill level" is an .810 OPS, then that would be what you expect him to do the rest of the way. You should make a trade based on what you expect him to do the rest of the way, based on what you consider his true skill level.

I was just speaking hypothetically. Under such a scenario, Willingham would be a low-mid .700s bat, but still fill Erick's definition of being a "consistent" .800 bat.

 

I'm trying to illustrate my definition of inconsistency. I'm aware that Willingham has been able to maintain .800 OPS consistently at season's end, but he's been inconsistent over large stretches of a given season.

 

Having said that, I absolutely think you can consider such trends (if they exist), when predicting how the player will perform for the rest of the season. If he player has historically fallen into protracted stints of poor offensive production, it's something to keep in mind if you want to add him for the short term.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I guess I get what you're saying, but there are two sides to that argument, as well.

 

I've checked some of his monthly splits every year and he does tend to be up/down.

 

With that said, just like you can say that he's probably bound to have a bad month or two, one can also say that Josh Willingham is also capable of carrying an offense for a month or two.

 

Just like he's had some terrible months in his career, he's also had great months where his .OPS is north of 1.000.

 

When you're a buyer at the trade deadline, you're always (or rather, usually) taking some sort of risk.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There really isn't a true sabermetric reason to predict his decline--I am fully admitting this. It's mostly just playing the odds, since it's happened enough historically for me to take notice. The odds make such a move more risky than I would like the Marlins to make, considering the fact that he has two more years under contract.

 

The way I see it, he's a long term solution for a short term problem, and might underwhelm over the short term. That's basically my position here.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes, I am. Probably more so than most major leaguers. Is he really a .900+ bat?

 

Why buy high on a 33 year old with 2 years left on his contract with a reasonable possibility that he cools off a ton on a second half?

 

 

As I said, I don't really want him.

 

I'm just arguing what you said, which was: "He can be that bad offensively (low to mid .700s) or he can be much better than that--it depends."

 

His lowest single season .OPS is .810 and this is now his 7th full season in the big leagues. Safe to say he can hit and he's had a pretty consistent career doing it.

Let's say he finishes the year with an .810 OPS but keeps up his current production for a week or two and the Marlins acquire him. How productive will his bat be for the Marlins for the remainder of the season?

 

That's rather impossible to answer. Unless if you're saying that because of what he's done so far this year, he's probably going to regress.

 

Anyway, if you make a trade for him, you're making the trade thinking that you're adding a mid-.800 .OPS guy, which is basically what he's been in his career.

 

By the way, his .810 .OPS year was last year playing for Oakland, a pitcher's park (121 OPS+).

 

 

Also, it's possible that he's a different hitter now with more power.

 

http://www.fangraphs...m-2012-sleeper/ seems to show that he became more pull-happy last year, resulting in better power #'s.

 

That's translated to this year (.277 .ISO) in Minnesota.

 

He'd be an upgrade to the lineup for sure. It's just probably not worth it based on what it'd take to acquire him.

What do you think that would be? I mean obviously the Twins are going to be looking for prospects but as long as the main peice from us wasn't Yelich or Fernandez, I probably wouldn't be against it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'd bet money that he has a pretty mediocre second half.

 

 

Mediocre is a huge upgrade at this point.

Not really, considering he's not really much of a defender, either. He does nothing to improve the outfield defense. The Marlins should be able to piece together low .700 OPS offensive production without taking on Willingham's contract.

 

You say this as if Willingham isn't a lot better than that, offensively.

 

Not that I really want him, but he would certainly be an upgrade.

He can be that bad offensively (low to mid .700s) or he can be much better than that--it depends. He's too inconsistent for me to want to go out and acquire him right now.

 

I have little confidence that he can maintain this level of production for a full season.

 

Tough crowd when a guy whose OPS has been .810-.863 every year in the majors is labeled inconsistent.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

He just started a 3 year deal and the twins need him. Not happening.

 

 

The Twins don't need him at all. They suck and would be better off trading him for assets that can benefit the future of their team.

 

If the twins fix the bottom of their order they have a solid lineup. If they are like this by the trade deadline next year then maybe he gets traded.

 

Letting him go now would make rebuilding quickly even harder.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

He just started a 3 year deal and the twins need him. Not happening.

 

 

The Twins don't need him at all. They suck and would be better off trading him for assets that can benefit the future of their team.

 

If the twins fix the bottom of their order they have a solid lineup. If they are like this by the trade deadline next year then maybe he gets traded.

 

Letting him go now would make rebuilding quickly even harder.

 

The Twins problem isn't exactly the bottom of their lineup.

 

Their problem is...well, everything.

 

They suck and their farm system isn't good, either.

 

They have the worst run differential in the big leagues and should be rebuilding. They're not close to anything, with or without a 33-year old Josh Willingham.

 

The Twins are a dysfunctional mess right now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What about Carlos Quentin? Assuming he's healthy and hitting he could be a trade piece for the pads and he's an fa after this season.

 

He's a terrible OFer but he makes up for it with his hitting. If he's healthy, he's a good name to throw out there. He might cost a little less than Willingham, too based on the time he's missed this year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



×
×
  • Create New...