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Carlos Lee Has Spoken To Marlins About 2013 Return


dom2613

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send Lomo down for the year to the minors next year to play first and play Lee at first ...this team needs someone who can bat above .275 on a consistent basis and drive in some runs. Unfortunately there aren't a lot of options out there and Lee would be a cheap one to slot in there and likely would continue to work well at home as his decline in power has made him transition more to a game of driving balls into the gap (something the Hanley of old should have been doing all damn year long). He's not up there trying to smash balls over the fence, he's just trying to get a hit and drive in a run or moves guys over. It's a unique concept on this team.

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Lee's production has far surpassed LoMo's. With that being said, I don't care if LoMo is our 1b of the future. Lee is better. If he wants to be here for a reasonable price, you do it! LoMo hasn't produced well enough to be considered our 1b of the future anyway. One could argue that he has been hurt, but he has been hurt constantly, so there's another issue.

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Lee's production has far surpassed LoMo's. With that being said, I don't care if LoMo is our 1b of the future. Lee is better. If he wants to be here for a reasonable price, you do it! LoMo hasn't produced well enough to be considered our 1b of the future anyway. One could argue that he has been hurt, but he has been hurt constantly, so there's another issue.

 

 

Jeremy Hermida was hurt as well.

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For all of the "better production" Carlos Lee has given the Marlins, his OPS is all of .032 points higher than Lomo's this season with the Marlins.

 

If it's a question of $4-5M for Lee or the minimum for Lomo, there's no question you take the upside play of Lomo, especially since you still have to hope he develops into a long-term piece for you.

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For all of the "better production" Carlos Lee has given the Marlins, his OPS is all of .032 points higher than Lomo's this season with the Marlins.

 

If it's a question of $4-5M for Lee or the minimum for Lomo, there's no question you take the upside play of Lomo, especially since you still have to hope he develops into a long-term piece for you.

 

2012 OPS w/ RISP

Lee .841

Morrison .593

 

In 60 less games, Carlos Lee has 11 less RBI's than Lomo. That's the "better production" people are liking from a bat in the middle of the lineup.

 

I know, RBI's mean nothing. They're stupid.

 

Btw, I'm not saying we should sign him. We already have enough positions to fill next year, coupled with reports of our payroll being lowered next year, the last thing we should do is spend money on a position we already have a player for (albeit a player who hasn't been able to hit with RISP for the past two years).

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For all of the "better production" Carlos Lee has given the Marlins, his OPS is all of .032 points higher than Lomo's this season with the Marlins.

 

If it's a question of $4-5M for Lee or the minimum for Lomo, there's no question you take the upside play of Lomo, especially since you still have to hope he develops into a long-term piece for you.

 

2012 OPS w/ RISP

Lee .841

Morrison .593

 

Even if you believe that Lee has some magical ability to improve his game with RISP (A hypothesis for which there is little proof, in Lee's career), you are still left with the fact that he has a .640 with the bases empty, a situation in which he comes up far more often. I'm not going to keep a guy because he's passes in every fifth at bat, especially when he is old, has no upside and will likely cost a few million.

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For all of the "better production" Carlos Lee has given the Marlins, his OPS is all of .032 points higher than Lomo's this season with the Marlins.

 

If it's a question of $4-5M for Lee or the minimum for Lomo, there's no question you take the upside play of Lomo, especially since you still have to hope he develops into a long-term piece for you.

 

2012 OPS w/ RISP

Lee .841

Morrison .593

 

Even if you believe that Lee has some magical ability to improve his game with RISP (A hypothesis for which there is little proof, in Lee's career), you are still left with the fact that he has a .640 with the bases empty, a situation in which he comes up far more often. I'm not going to keep a guy because he's passes in every fifth at bat, especially when he is old, has no upside and will likely cost a few million.

I don't believe Carlos possesses a magical ability, I simply think he "stays within himself" a lot better than Lomo does when a scoring opportunity presents itself, as the numbers clearly indicate.

 

And you're right, scoring opportunities don't come along very often, but when they do, I want someone that can hit with RISP at the plate. We didn't get Carlos Lee so he could get on base for Donovan Solano to drive him in.

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I don't believe Carlos possesses a magical ability, I simply think he "stays within himself" a lot better than Lomo does when a scoring opportunity presents itself, as the numbers clearly indicate.

 

 

Comparing him to Lomo, when trying to figure out Lee's ability, is not the right way to go about things. You should compare Lee in scoring chances with Lee otherwise; when you look at it this way, he does not seem special.

 

As a hitter, Lee might be marginally better than Lomo right now, but with no upside and a higher price tag. That he has one 120 at bat sample size of decent hitting with runners in scoring position does not change the fundamental facts of the argument.

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Well, the main problem there is that OPS put too much of an over emphasis on slugging.

 

Lee has a .370 OBP with us. Lomo has a .308 OBP. We're not talking a huge sample size or saying it'll be sustainable, but point it as him playing only slightly above Lomo is a misrepresentation in my opinion.

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Overall production still counts for something. Even if you want to weigh OBP more heavily, the gap in production is not worth keeping Lee over Lomo, once everything else is factored.

 

Also, he still has just a .2 WAR with the Marlins. He's been better than Lomo, but let's not act like he's been anything approaching good or valuable.

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OPS is one of the best indicators of overall scoring, but OBP x 1.4 + SLG is an even better correlation. Remember, we were screaming about how bad Jacobs sucked at a point in the season his OPS was nearly .900, because his OBP was sub-.300

 

 

Mike Jacobs' best OPS with the Marlins was .812.

 

That aside, even if you do OBP x 1.4 + SLG, the gap between them is negligible: .868 for Lee, .830 for Lomo.

 

Besides RBI and hitting in RISP in a 140 PA sample size, there is no argument to be made that it is in the best interests of the Marlins in the long- or short-term to bring back Lee for anything above the minimum at the expense of playing time for Lomo.

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OPS is one of the best indicators of overall scoring, but OBP x 1.4 + SLG is an even better correlation. Remember, we were screaming about how bad Jacobs sucked at a point in the season his OPS was nearly .900, because his OBP was sub-.300

 

 

Mike Jacobs' best OPS with the Marlins was .812.

 

He was .894 as late as June 1, 2008.

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The problem with Mike Jacobs was that his SLG didn't make up for the rest of his mediocrity and the fact that he was the absolute worst, defensively. There's a reason why he's not in the big leagues anymore.

 

His defense might have been the worst, but his hair surely was the best.

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