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Jose Got a Raise and the FO Spent Some Money(kinda)!


mrchainsaw
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Just a small step and it may not mean anything in the long run but this could be a nice step forward in many ways.

 

Maybe the new FO is already focusing more towards Jose's longterm future here and is just taking a "if it happens it happens" approach with Stanton?

 

Or maybe I'm already looking way too into Jose getting a little raise.

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Just a small step and it may not mean anything in the long run but this could be a nice step forward in many ways.

 

Maybe the new FO is already focusing more towards Jose's longterm future here and is just taking a "if it happens it happens" approach with Stanton?

 

Or maybe I'm already looking way too into Jose getting a little raise.

 

That's what I read into it...

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Just a small step and it may not mean anything in the long run but this could be a nice step forward in many ways.

 

Maybe the new FO is already focusing more towards Jose's longterm future here and is just taking a "if it happens it happens" approach with Stanton?

 

Or maybe I'm already looking way too into Jose getting a little raise.

Marlins gave Coghlan a big bump after ROY. This is nothing new.

 

There is also no approach with Stanton, they are going to trade him or keep him through arbitration. The longterm deal is off the table unless they do something incredible right now like a 5/$90-100 deal. Fernandez, they can wait until next offseason. He'll take a deal a year away from arbitration even with Boras.

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Marlins gave Coghlan a big bump after ROY. This is nothing new.

 

There is also no approach with Stanton, they are going to trade him or keep him through arbitration. The longterm deal is off the table unless they do something incredible right now like a 5/$90-100 deal. Fernandez, they can wait until next offseason. He'll take a deal a year away from arbitration even with Boras.

 

If that's the case, let's move him. I'd love to keep him, but this team has 7 picks in the first 108 in the coming draft (4 in the first 43) and a good core. They won't compete until 2016 at the earliest anyway. I want the cycle to end but the timing may not be right. Might be wise to get a haul.

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I don't think there's much chance that Stanton won't be worth that kind of money. Now you can certainly argue that kind of money doesn't make sense for the Marlins, but just based on value... I mean someone's gonna pay him.

 

 

I wonder if they feel like just paying him arb money the next 3 years & letting him walk in 2017 and take the draft pick.

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I don't think there's much chance that Stanton won't be worth that kind of money. Now you can certainly argue that kind of money doesn't make sense for the Marlins, but just based on value... I mean someone's gonna pay him.

 

 

I wonder if they feel like just paying him arb money the next 3 years & letting him walk in 2017 and take the draft pick.

I'm not opposed to this if they build a real team around him. They can punt 2014 while they see which kids work out, that's reasonable.

 

But if they really want to take advantage of Stanton, they are going to likely need a legitimate middle infield starter, a real stopgap 3B as Moran is likely not a real contributor until 16-17, maybe a 3rd OF if marisnick/ozuna doesn't work out, and probably a # 3 SP next year. I mean, maybe Hech/Dietrich, McGehee, Marisnick/Ozuna, and all of Heaney, Alvarez, Turner, and Nicolino work out, and they get good trade assets for Cishek and Dunn at the deadline, but let's be realistic. They are going to need to spend around him for 2015-2016 or they just wasted him as an asset.

 

We'll see. Hard to be optimistic with Loria shooting front office in foot.

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I'm not very good at this, but a quick google search is telling me 1 WAR = $5.54M in 2014. Stanton had 2.4 WAR in 2013. Thats $13.30M for last season. He would need to have a few seasons of 3 WAR production , and a couple of 4 war seasons to be worth $100M over 5 years. And yes I accounted for the fact that the value of war is going to go up most likely. Again, I'm bad at this so I could have done something wrong.

 

I can see why the marlins don't want to sign him long term at this point. Its kinda too late. They needed to take care of this earlier in his career when he wasn't so close to being a FA. It still makes sense for Stanton to sign, but he is at the point where he can risk a theoretical $100M for a much larger FA payout and still be set for life if something terrible happens. 6.5M for 2014, and he's a FA in 2017, and going into 2015 he will be comfortably set for life through arbitration. I don't think he would sign for longer than 5 years either. He will be 29 if he signs for 6 years. I would rather go into free agency at 28 with his bat. Thats big time money and probably a contract that takes you to the end of your career. They missed the boat with Stanton for whatever reason.

 

The marlins can't miss on "big" contracts. We've seen what happens before. I would trade Stanton now.

 

I actually kind of see where you are coming from here although I think Stanton is worth the money. The biggest concern for me is injury, because it's pretty much to be expected at this point that Stanton spends a considerable amount of time on the DL each season.

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I actually kind of see where you are coming from here although I think Stanton is worth the money. The biggest concern for me is injury, because it's pretty much to be expected at this point that Stanton spends a considerable amount of time on the DL each season.

Another thing to consider is that a team should probably be willing to pay progressively more for each additional WAR a player can be expected to bring. Given the limited number of players that can be active at a given time, a 5 WAR player is worth more than a 2 WAR player and a separate 3 WAR player. It's those higher WAR guys who are key in helping make that push from a ~.500 squad to a playoff-level team.

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That's true and part of the reason why I have never bought into the "1 WAR= so many million" figure. It presumes a linear extrapolation, which is just plain silly.

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I'm not opposed to this if they build a real team around him. They can punt 2014 while they see which kids work out, that's reasonable.

 

But if they really want to take advantage of Stanton, they are going to likely need a legitimate middle infield starter, a real stopgap 3B as Moran is likely not a real contributor until 16-17, maybe a 3rd OF if marisnick/ozuna doesn't work out, and probably a # 3 SP next year. I mean, maybe Hech/Dietrich, McGehee, Marisnick/Ozuna, and all of Heaney, Alvarez, Turner, and Nicolino work out, and they get good trade assets for Cishek and Dunn at the deadline, but let's be realistic. They are going to need to spend around him for 2015-2016 or they just wasted him as an asset.

 

We'll see. Hard to be optimistic with Loria shooting front office in foot.

I have to disagree on Moran. He will absolutely be in the majors by the end of the year or 2015. He's not a HS prospect, he played a lot of college ball and will probably start the year in High A or AA. It won't take him very long to be here, which is why they are putting a stopgap of McGehee in place for now at 3rd.

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I have to disagree on Moran. He will absolutely be in the majors by the end of the year or 2015. He's not a HS prospect, he played a lot of college ball and will probably start the year in High A or AA. It won't take him very long to be here, which is why they are putting a stopgap of McGehee in place for now at 3rd.

They may rush him, but that doesn't mean he is going to be a positive contributor for a few years. He hasn't even played Jupiter yet and got destroyed in the AFL this offseason. Expecting Moran to be a savior in a year and a half is highly optimistic. He may be the longterm answer at 3B, but if they are serious about contending during Stanton's years (15-16), Moran hitting his stride quick is a bonus and not something to be counted on. That's the issue here - the complete mismanagement of Stanton compared to the team's other assets. He should be signed through 2019 right now, and that lines right up with everyone else in their pre-free agency years.

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I would ignore the AFL stats. Keep in mind that he had played an entire college season and then some minor league ball before he got there. A lot of times people overstate the impact of AFL perfomance either way.

 

It's also not at all optimistic to see him starting next year with the big-league club. I'm just reiterating the views of a lot of scouting people who deal with prospects.

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Moran is expected to be able to enter the majors and hit right away because of his already advanced hit tool. That is why he's considered being rushed in the first place. He is viewed as the best pure hitter in last draft class and he's one of those prospects whose advanced approach is projected to make an immediate impact in the MLB. That doesn't necessarily mean it will initially, but it is very likely not to take long. He is a very different prospect from those toolsy prospects that aren't as refined hitters, but have bigger potential.

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