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So you seem to think Brian Flynn is the next... Mark Hendrickson?

 

I don't have any fantasies about Flynn becoming a top tier major league starter. But you make it seem like he's a throw away player. In reality he's one of the best pitchers in a farm system with tons of pitching depth. This is another one of those arguements we'll have to chalk up to the results this year.

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So you seem to think Brian Flynn is the next... Mark Hendrickson?

 

I don't have any fantasies about Flynn becoming a top tier major league starter. But you make it seem like he's a throw away player. In reality he's one of the best pitchers in a farm system with tons of pitching depth. This is another one of those arguements we'll have to chalk up to the results this year.

 

Fangraphs nails it on what Flynn is (they rate him #7 btw)

 

The Year in Review: Flynn had a lot of success in his first full season in the Marlins’ system. He opened the year in Double-A but spent much of the season in Triple-A before making four big league starts. He got hit around in The Show with 27 hits and 13 walks in 18 innings.

 

The Scouting Report: Flynn, 23, is a big strong dude that struggles to keep his long levers in check at times, which hurts both his command and control. He has good stuff for a lefty to an 88-93 mph fastball and a slider that projects to develop into an above-average pitch. Both his curveball and changeup need work to become average offerings. Flynn has compiled more than 300 innings over the past two seasons and should be good for a lot of innings in the back-end of a big-league rotation.

 

The Year Ahead: The former Tigers prospect currently stands to open the 2014 season as the No. 4 or 5 starter in the Marlins’ starting rotation. He’ll have to stay on his game, though, to hold off the likes of Andrew Heaney, Justin Nicolino, and Adam Conley.

 

The Career Outlook: Flynn looks like a future back-end starter who will provide a ton of innings despite his modest ceiling. He’ll probably never become a household name but he has the stuff to carve out a respectable career.

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I don't see there being a logjam in pitching. If you trade Turner, you are pretty much faced with putting Hand and Koehler into the rotation and neither of them are likely to have bright futures or anything like that. That is, until Heaney is ready and hopefully the Marlins don't rush him like they've been known to do in the past.

 

That's assuming that everyone stays healthy too (remember that Alvarez and Eovaldi spent some time on the DL last year) and everyone still lives up to expectations.

 

The Marlins would be foolish to trade any of the pitchers with reasonable upside at any point this season.

 

It's a logjam when you're having to force people on the roster because they are out of options. Hand, Flynn, Turner, Koehler, Slowey can't all pitch. Yes, it's depth, that's a semantic issue. Dealing from a strength is a way to balance out a roster.

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So you seem to think Brian Flynn is the next... Mark Hendrickson?

 

I don't have any fantasies about Flynn becoming a top tier major league starter. But you make it seem like he's a throw away player. In reality he's one of the best pitchers in a farm system with tons of pitching depth. This is another one of those arguements we'll have to chalk up to the results this year.

 

He's AAA depth for now in case someone goes down, but you are getting way carried away by saying that the Cubs would be happy to have him in their system or whatever nonsense you are saying.

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You're absolutely right, they nailed it.

 

That's a lot better outlook than penguino's analysis that "we would be lucky if he were servicable" or "His stuff is unimpressive".

 

I still think you're missing the point. That's basically his best case scenario. I think the issue here, which penguino criticizes you for (perhaps unfairly even though I tend to always agree with him), is that you assume every single marlins player is going to reach his ceiling. For instance, Jose Fernandez's ceiling is a right handed harder throwing Clayton Kershaw (maybe even better?). Brian Flynn's ceiling is a #4 starter who eats up 200IP year. Those are the both pitchers best case scenarios. Will they reach them? Probably not. However, assuming Brian Flynn is already this low 4s era who guy who pounds the strike zone and gets outs is problematic as he has yet to even come close to that. While he has value, to think another team is chomping at the bit to have him is just wrong.

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It's a logjam when you're having to force people on the roster because they are out of options. Hand, Flynn, Turner, Koehler, Slowey can't all pitch. Yes, it's depth, that's a semantic issue. Dealing from a strength is a way to balance out a roster.

 

Only Hand and Turner are out of options, unless I'm mistaken. I also don't think that being unable to have Flynn, Koehler, and Slowey is a problem that needs a remedy. None of them are obvious choices for a MLB roster. Nearly every MLB team should have a handful of candidates competing for the 5th starter spot--the rest stay in AAA. I honestly don't see much of a surplus here that needs to be moved, but I'm really not so high on most of those names you've mentioned.

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You're absolutely right, they nailed it.

 

That's a lot better outlook than penguino's analysis that "we would be lucky if he were servicable" or "His stuff is unimpressive".

 

Their assessment of his talent/stuff is almost exactly in line with what I just said and it helps to undermine your overly exaggerated claims made earlier. They are also assuming best case scenario, as pollyvonwog says.

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I actually have higher hopes for Hand than Flynn. I feel like the poor guy gets no respect and I'm the only one who likes him. He had a nice velocity uptick last year and actually did throw in the low/mid 90s topping at at 95/96. He walks way too many, but also strikes a lot out. I wouldn't mind seeing what he could do in that 5th spot for 10-15 games.

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Of all of these fringe starters (Flynn, Koehler, Hand, etc.), I'm most optimistic for Hand. Everyone else I have no problem leaving in AAA until someone gets injured.

 

As for Flynn, I really think that this idea that he can throw hard is a myth. I suppose that some fatigue could have been a factor (we can't prove to what extent this is the case), but in September he only threw above 94 on a total of two pitches and never reached 95.

 

He seems to sit in that 90-91 MPH range, sometimes hits 92-93, and rarely goes above that.

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Of all of these fringe starters (Flynn, Koehler, Hand, etc.), I'm most optimistic for Hand. Everyone else I have no problem leaving in AAA until someone gets injured.

 

As for Flynn, I really think that this idea that he can throw hard is a myth. I suppose that some fatigue could have been a factor (we can't prove to what extent this is the case), but in September he only threw above 94 on a total of two pitches and never reached 95.

 

He seems to sit in that 90-91 MPH range, sometimes hits 92-93, and rarely goes above that.

 

You realize it's not a myth that a fastball at 92 MPH coming out of the hand of a 6'7 pitcher looks drastically faster than the same 92 MPH pitch out of the hand of an average pitcher. Longer legs = bigger stride + longer arms = super close release point = 92 MPH looks like 96+. For that reason, plus the fact that Flynn's size also helps him project to be more durable, makes him more attractive to me than Hand.

 

Trust me, as you guys have noted, I am optimistic. I like Hand as well. In fact, some of you guys (I think you, specifically, Penguino) critisized me this offseason about liking Hand when I mentioned his success in NO last season and how his September in Miami had me excited. But IMO Flynn is definitely the better prospect, at least as a starter.

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I don't believe any of the stuff you are saying about height is fully true. Taller pitchers have the potential to project a faster perceived velocity, but the degree to which that happens still depends upon the actual mechanics of the delivery. In other words, there is not a linear correlation between release points and height and you cannot automatically assume that Flynn or any other tall Flynn is adding 4-5 MPH on a fastball without pinpointing the exact release point. Regardless, the myth I am referring to is the claim that Flynn has a tendency to throw 94-96 on the gun--that almost never happens. You are referring to something different entirely.

 

What you are saying about durability is blatantly untrue and has been debunked by a number of statistical analyses.

 

You are more than just optimistic; you are often irrational and stretch the truth to make mediocre players sound better than they actually are. For what it's worth, I'm not too high on Hand overall, but I think that he has the most promise of the names being mentioned for the 5th starter role. He's the least of three evils.

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I actually have higher hopes for Hand than Flynn. I feel like the poor guy gets no respect and I'm the only one who likes him. He had a nice velocity uptick last year and actually did throw in the low/mid 90s topping at at 95/96. He walks way too many, but also strikes a lot out. I wouldn't mind seeing what he could do in that 5th spot for 10-15 games.

 

I'm there with you. Really though, there were people higher on him a year or two ago, as the walks have piled up the attention has moved on to the next big group of arms. But he's always been able to miss bats, I got to see him a fair amount when he pitched with the Suns & always liked his stuff. He's mentioned recently that he's not trying to be perfect with his pitches now, just letting it go & trusting his stuff. Dunno if it'll keep up but seeing some good signs in spring. Hand is getting another start Saturday in a split-squad game. He and Koehler have both been good so tough on Red to pick one, I just feel like Koehler's shown some good flexibility with bullpen/long-relief/spot-start so I'd be in favor of giving Hand a try in the rotation for a month or two like you suggest.

 

He's probably a longshot, but there's something to be said for having a bunch of these guys. Only a few are really going to pan out even if we're lucky, & you still need the depth for injuries, trade pieces, etc.

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I'm there with you. Really though, there were people higher on him a year or two ago, as the walks have piled up the attention has moved on to the next big group of arms. But he's always been able to miss bats, I got to see him a fair amount when he pitched with the Suns & always liked his stuff. He's mentioned recently that he's not trying to be perfect with his pitches now, just letting it go & trusting his stuff. Dunno if it'll keep up but seeing some good signs in spring. Hand is getting another start Saturday in a split-squad game. He and Koehler have both been good so tough on Red to pick one, I just feel like Koehler's shown some good flexibility with bullpen/long-relief/spot-start so I'd be in favor of giving Hand a try in the rotation for a month or two like you suggest.

 

He's probably a longshot, but there's something to be said for having a bunch of these guys. Only a few are really going to pan out even if we're lucky, & you still need the depth for injuries, trade pieces, etc.

 

Oh, I love the depth, don't get me wrong. But for a team with no shot at contention, I think selling that depth for talent at areas of need is in order at some point. This team badly needs infield talent at every level and I would dangle every pitcher except Jose and Heaney, including Cishek, to gauge interest. Particularly if you find a desperate contender at the deadline.

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The problem with that line of thinking is that Jose is probably the only sure thing in the rotation (in terms of talent). We don't really even know what to expect from Eovaldi, Turner, Alvarez, and Heaney. On top of that, Flynn, Hand, and Koehler have much lower ceilings.

 

The Marlins need to have some time to see how serviceable and healthy some of these guys are before trading them off. With a busted elbow or someone failing to live up to expectations, pitching depth can turn into a lack awfully quickly.

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The problem with that line of thinking is that Jose is probably the only sure thing in the rotation (in terms of talent). We don't really even know what to expect from Eovaldi, Turner, Alvarez, and Heaney. On top of that, Flynn, Hand, and Koehler have much lower ceilings.

 

The Marlins need to have some time to see how serviceable and healthy some of these guys are before trading them off. With a busted elbow or someone failing to live up to expectations, pitching depth can turn into a lack awfully quickly.

 

I'm not gonna lie, I actually beleive the Marlins pitching is getting a little overrated lately, given scout and media reports recently. Outside of Jose, nobody is anything special nor does anyone profile as a frontline (1-2-3) starter. They have always projected as backend rotation fodder. Alvarez won't succeed unless he keeps the ball on the ground, Eovaldi's secondary stuff is stiff and he doesn't miss enough bats, Turner has control issues and Koehler is an old, limited prospect.

 

I get all that and am realistic. But if teams are overvaluing that pitching, and Miami is out of contention like we think, I'm all for balancing out this incredibly sad offense. Heaney is on the way, hopefully one of Conley or Nicolino can become a starter and Miami's probably taking a top college pitcher in the draft.

 

If there isn't much of a difference between Flynn, Hand, Koehler and Turner, and they won't be here long term, and someone overvalues them at the deadline, just get what you can. I think that's reasonable.

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I'm specifically talking about the guys that are ready now that I listed. I have high hopes that Heaney can be a good No. 2 or spectacular No. 3.

Gotcha. I have hopes for Eovaldi and Alvarez, but both have problems missing bats as you noted. The good thing is their stuff is certainly good enough to start striking out more batters any day.

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I'm not gonna lie, I actually beleive the Marlins pitching is getting a little overrated lately, given scout and media reports recently. Outside of Jose, nobody is anything special nor does anyone profile as a frontline (1-2-3) starter. They have always projected as backend rotation fodder. Alvarez won't succeed unless he keeps the ball on the ground, Eovaldi's secondary stuff is stiff and he doesn't miss enough bats, Turner has control issues and Koehler is an old, limited prospect.

 

I get all that and am realistic. But if teams are overvaluing that pitching, and Miami is out of contention like we think, I'm all for balancing out this incredibly sad offense. Heaney is on the way, hopefully one of Conley or Nicolino can become a starter and Miami's probably taking a top college pitcher in the draft.

 

If there isn't much of a difference between Flynn, Hand, Koehler and Turner, and they won't be here long term, and someone overvalues them at the deadline, just get what you can. I think that's reasonable.

 

Well, I would certainly separate Turner from Flynn, Hand, and Koehler. Of those remaining three, though, there isn't much trade value even at the deadline. You aren't going to bring in a piece that is going to substantially upgrade the team.

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Well, I would certainly separate Turner from Flynn, Hand, and Koehler. Of those remaining three, though, there isn't much trade value even at the deadline. You aren't going to bring in a piece that is going to substantially upgrade the team.

 

That's my point. That I think if one of them pitches over their head and can keep some of the momentum from this spring, you can get someone to take the bait. Plus you can dangle back of the bullpen arms like Cishek and Dunn that don't hold much long term value or are repleaceable.

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