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Current four year plan


Nny
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7Jhuxto.png

 

Done this the past couple years, always fun to look at. Was surprisingly accurate last year considering how dirty it is.

 

Few notes:

-* means arbitration eligible/guess payroll

-Replacement level team is worth 48 wins, so add 48 to the WAR total for total team wins

-Those WAR numbers are very rough, as are minimum numbers. This is meant as a rough view and not meant to be completely 100% accurate. Just enough to paint a picture.

-If they're making the minimum, their name really doesn't matter (This especially goes for bench/bullpen). It's just used as a filler piece since it's already rather interchangeable.

 

2015

 

I have Jose pitching half a season, Heaney the other half. This is a top ~5-10 rotation in baseball with only a half season of Jose, as well as a top ~5-10 bullpen and there's room to think they can outperform this. We definitely don't need pitching.

 

Top-5 OF in baseball, definitely don't need help there. And I really think Yelich can outperform my prediction WAR of him in the coming years.

 

But we're looking at getting something like 2-3 WAR out of our IF again. Need help.

 

I have us as a .500 team next year without any additional gains. We need help in the IF. And with how bad our IF is, anyone decent is a huge upgrade

 

2016

 

I try not to remove arbitration guys to show a more fuller picture, but this is with Koehler gone because there's almost no chance he breaks next years rotation unless a lot of things shake up. Mathis, Baker, and Jones off the books, but still increase in payroll through arbitrations. Full season of Jose = woo

 

2017

 

Payroll starts moving up a lot with a lot of guys hitting arbitration, but there is also a LOT of pitchers we can get rid of to save space. Trading Cishek and Eovaldi alone puts us back in the mid-60 range. Payroll still shouldn't be an issue here.

 

2018

 

Alvarez, Eolvadi, and Cishek gone. Last year of Jose. More arbitration raises. This is where we'll start needing prospects up, mostly in the rotation, because payroll is going to start to hurt.

 

TL;DR

 

We're currently built like a .500 team the next few years. We need help in the IF (gasp). We have a lotttt of payroll room the next three years, but by 2018 it goes up a lot.

 

So we gotta try and focus on 3 year contracts in FA

 

Also, we're fucking awesome if we roll out a 100m payroll. LaRoche 2/30, Lowrie 3/30, Headley 4/48, Shields 4/80:

 

gj3PAgE.png

 

This is a 90+ win team easily. Was too lazy to make 2018 around 100m, but it's easily done by removing BP arms and shit. Not going to happen, but we're crazy good with a MLB average payroll the next three years. Oh well, life of being a Marlins fan.

 

 

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Good stuff Nny. You think Yelich will be higher than 4 WAR player?? Whoa...

 

I still have reservations about the rotation until Jose comes back healthy. Alvarez I'm pretty secure on. Cosart looked great but would like to see him do that for a few more months. Nate is who knows, Koehler is Koehler, and we haven't really seen anything from Heaney yet to excite. If they sign a big name then sure, or even a 2nd tier FA to hold it together until July, terrific.

 

I really have no idea what they'll do for the infield. Sure LaRoche would help... but that much??

 

Crazy how even with Stanton they have so much salary flexibility. Doesn't really matter if you don't use it of course...

 

 

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Good stuff Nny. You think Yelich will be higher than 4 WAR player?? Whoa...

 

 

He's kind of like Carl Crawford by adding a lot of value with speed and defense (Yelich has the better bat, but Crawford added more with speed/defense). 4.3 WAR 22 years of age. He's not going to be a power hitter, but there's a lot of room to project growth in his offensive game.

 

4 WAR could be considered very conservative, but I don't like projecting too high.

 

 

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Yelich is going to be really good. We need to lock him up like we did Stanton, except get it done early unlike Stanton.

 

 

 

This. If he adds a little bulk and starts knocking out 20+ homers, and just continues to do what he already does, he will be a 5-6 WAR player. Like, almost as good at Cutch good. Seriously.

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This. If he adds a little bulk and starts knocking out 20+ homers, and just continues to do what he already does, he will be a 5-6 WAR player. Like, almost as good at Cutch good. Seriously.

 

 

I can actually agree with this.

If we had someone else to lead off, he'd be great as a #3 with Giancarlo right behind him.

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This. If he adds a little bulk and starts knocking out 20+ homers, and just continues to do what he already does, he will be a 5-6 WAR player. Like, almost as good at Cutch good. Seriously.

 

 

 

He's not Andrew McCutchen good, but he can absolutely be a 5+ WAR guy in LF as he enters his prime.

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McCutchen is a 7-8 WAR, MVP candidate caliber CF'er. It's entirely different.

 

 

I'm sorry, but I disagree. Cutch posted a 2.2 WAR his rookie year at age 22, and that was in 433 ab's. He posted a 3.6 WAR in his second year as a 23 year old.

 

Yelich posted a 1.4 WAR his rookie year in about half the ab's at age 21. Then he posted a 3.6 WAR in his second year, identical to Cutch, and won a Gold Glove, as a 22 year old.

 

I don't know what you're seeing, but I'm seeing Yelich on a near identical career path, and a year ahead of Cutch at that.

 

 

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I'm sorry, but I disagree. Cutch posted a 2.2 WAR his rookie year at age 22, and that was in 433 ab's. He posted a 3.6 WAR in his second year as a 23 year old.

 

Yelich posted a 1.4 WAR his rookie year in about half the ab's at age 21. Then he posted a 3.6 WAR in his second year, identical to Cutch, and won a Gold Glove, as a 22 year old.

 

I don't know what you're seeing, but I'm seeing Yelich on a near identical career path, and a year ahead of Cutch at that.

 

 

 

Yelich will never be Cutch.....

 

 

Cutch is black, Yelich's white.

 

Pretty self explanatory

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You don't seem to understand things sometimes.

Defensive metrics are adjusted for position.

 

 

I understand that. What's your point here? Because my point was that at age 22, McCutchen was a promising rookie. When Yelich was 22, he was posting a 3.6 WAR a year ahead of Cutch's career timetable. There's nothing to suggest Yelich can't grow into a similar player, in fact, his similar skill set says it could be extremely likely. I mean, we are talking about Christian Yelich here, a guy that was considered the most advanced hitter in the minor leagues at 20 years old. It shouldn't be a surprise when he turns out to be an MVP caliber player considering he was projected to be the kind of hitter that can win multiple batting titles and now he's also developed into a Gold Glove outfielder.

 

 

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