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Where Do We Go From Here?


SongInTheAir
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Gordon

 

Yelich

 

Prado

 

Stanton

 

Morse

 

Ozuna

 

Salty

 

Hech

 

fixed

 

I'd like it with Prado and Yelich swapped but I doubt it happens since Red likes Stanton 3rd.

 

 

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Honestly I think Brad Hand would get the starting pitcher spot over Phelps coming out of spring training. Hand's worked with some of the coaches here for years already and had some good starts for us down the stretch.

 

Not saying it's ideal but Hand's still gonna be just 25 years old when the season starts. Took Tom Koehler until he was 27 for things to click to where they were last season.

 

I don't think Hand would be handed (hehe) the job right out of camp, but I think once Haren retires that there'll be some type of battle for that last rotation spot between multiple pitchers we'll bring in, with Phelps and Hand leading the way.

 

There's a lot of question marks within the current rotation but also a good deal of upside.

 

 

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Plugging in payroll numbers and I just realized how good the lineup looks.

 

Gordon

 

Yelich

 

Stanton

 

Morse

 

Ozuna

 

Prado

 

Salty

 

Hech

 

or bat Prado 2nd and move everyone down a spot, whatever. that is actually pretty damn solid.

 

 

This looks like the best lineup we could put on the field. Yelich gets on base more than Prado and Prado is coming off a stint (although only 133 AB's) where he slugged .541, so he might fit a power role a bit more. Hech is set at #8, Salty set at #7, and with Gordon's speed he'd be wasted anywhere but #1. Yelich's approach at the plate makes him an ideal #2, and Stanton/Morse/Ozuna is the perfect power middle the lineup kind of guys you need.

 

Basically, it's solid balance in the lineup. I'd feel very confident of a good season going into next season with that lineup out on the field.

 

 

 

Not true. Speed actually plays well late in the order, when people get on base less and the steals have more value. You need guys at the top of the order to get on base for the top and middle guys.

 

Gordon shouldn't be leading off.

 

 

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I do like it as:

 

2B Gordon

3B Prado

LF Yelich

RF Stanton

1B Morse

CF Ozuna

C Saltalamacchia

SS Hechavarria

P Hechavarria [same difference]

Breaks up Gordon/Yelich, Prado is a great guy to do hit and runs with [and Dee would easily be on third, maybe even score if hit slow enough]. Yelich could maybe drive in 85, 90 from that spot and Stanton still drives in Yelich.

 

In front of Stanton, Yelich probably wins a batting title.

 

 

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I do like it as:

 

2B Gordon

3B Prado

LF Yelich

RF Stanton

1B Morse

CF Ozuna

C Saltalamacchia

SS Hechavarria

P Hechavarria [same difference]

Breaks up Gordon/Yelich, Prado is a great guy to do hit and runs with [and Dee would easily be on third, maybe even score if hit slow enough]. Yelich could maybe drive in 85, 90 from that spot and Stanton still drives in Yelich.

 

In front of Stanton, Yelich probably wins a batting title.

 

 

This lineup. EXACTLY this. In fact, I posted this exact lineup the other day, swap McGehee and Prado. But Prado is such a better fit there it isn't even funny. That's a very fun lineup, super exciting...

 

 

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Yelich

 

Prado

 

Stanton

 

Ozuna

 

Morse

 

Saltalamacchia

 

Gordon

 

Hechavarria

 

If Gordon significantly improves on his 2014 OBP (to the .350 range, which is not impossible), then move him up.

 

 

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If you hit Gordon 7th you just eliminated the most useful part of his game. With Morse/Ozuna/Salty hitting in front of him if any of them simply get on base you basically took away Gordon's game. I understand you're saying put him 7th because as a hitter he's worse than guys like Yelich and Prado and doesn't have a real good ability to walk and get on base, but you don't trade for a guy coming off a 60+ stolen base season and not bat him leadoff.

 

That's stupid and basically turns Gordon from a threat to score to start off every game to a likely average bat with much fewer chances to steal bases and show the main skill he brings to this team.

 

 

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Yeah we'd all love Gordon to post an OBP of .350+, but he likely won't. However we have nobody like him on the team with the speed to bunt for a hit to start off any game, then steal a base and create a RISP opportunity early in every game. I just hate putting Gordon anywhere but leadoff. That's just saying "hey, you know that BIG thing we traded you for and know you can bring to the team? Yeah, let's put you somewhere in the lineup we're we won't let you do that".

 

If he could turn into prime Juan Pierre when he was posting mid to high .300 OBP's that would be greaaaaaaaat

 

 

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Having a hitter at the top of the lineup who is more likely to avoid making outs is much more statistically desirable than having a guy who steals 60 SBs. The base stealing component is conventional wisdom, but really overstated.

 

The general rule for sabermetric lineup optimization is to avoid as many outs as possible at the top of the lineup. But of course, if the OBP between two players is very similar, then you would default toward the guy with more SBs.

 

Also, Ozuna, Saltalamacchia, and Morse are note exactly high OBP guys, so you are drastically overstating the impact that their presence on base will have on Gordon's "most useful part of the game" (SBs). All three are much more balanced toward power than on base ability. In fact, if you are really that worried about other guys being on base in front of Gordon, then you would just swap him with Hechavarria (hit Gordon 8th). Then you set him up better to be moved around by Yelich and Prado.

 

So in other words, in my scenario, the only real measurable impact on reducing Gordon's opportunities to steal bases would be him getting less PAs over the course of the season, which should be the case anyway.

 

 

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Having a hitter at the top of the lineup who is more likely to avoid making outs is much more statistically desirable than having a guy who steals 60 SBs. The base stealing component is conventional wisdom, but really overstated.

 

The general rule for sabermetric lineup optimization is to avoid as many outs as possible at the top of the lineup. But of course, if the OBP between two players is very similar, then you would default toward the guy with more SBs.

 

Also, Ozuna, Saltalamacchia, and Morse are note exactly high OBP guys, so you are drastically overstating the impact that their presence on base will have on Gordon's "most useful part of the game" (SBs). All three are much more balanced toward power than on base ability. In fact, if you are really that worried about other guys being on base in front of Gordon, then you would just swap him with Hechavarria (hit Gordon 8th). Then you set him up better to be moved around by Yelich and Prado.

 

So in other words, in my scenario, the only real measurable impact on reducing Gordon's opportunities to steal bases would be him getting less PAs over the course of the season, which should be the case anyway.

 

 

 

Why do people try and reinvent the wheel? Conventional wisdom isn't necessarily a bad thing. Having Gordon lead off will impact more than the stats can provide, and that's why managers still put players like him at the top. They have more of a positive impact than OBP alone will suggest.

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Having a hitter at the top of the lineup who is more likely to avoid making outs is much more statistically desirable than having a guy who steals 60 SBs. The base stealing component is conventional wisdom, but really overstated.

 

The general rule for sabermetric lineup optimization is to avoid as many outs as possible at the top of the lineup. But of course, if the OBP between two players is very similar, then you would default toward the guy with more SBs.

 

Also, Ozuna, Saltalamacchia, and Morse are note exactly high OBP guys, so you are drastically overstating the impact that their presence on base will have on Gordon's "most useful part of the game" (SBs). All three are much more balanced toward power than on base ability. In fact, if you are really that worried about other guys being on base in front of Gordon, then you would just swap him with Hechavarria (hit Gordon 8th). Then you set him up better to be moved around by Yelich and Prado.

 

So in other words, in my scenario, the only real measurable impact on reducing Gordon's opportunities to steal bases would be him getting less PAs over the course of the season, which should be the case anyway.

 

 

 

Why do people try and reinvent the wheel? Conventional wisdom isn't necessarily a bad thing. Having Gordon lead off will impact more than the stats can provide, and that's why managers still put players like him at the top. They have more of a positive impact than OBP alone will suggest.

 

Billy Bean changed the rules of the game not penguin, Pengui is not wrong... However last season was Gordon first full season as a MLB starter so I kind of have the impression that we may see more discipline from him as a hitter sooner than later. We know he can put the bat on the ball and put it in play. He just has to avoid getting fooled at the plate as much as it was happening at the 2nd half of the season. That is mostly maturity and experience...He didn't take BBs doesn't necessarily mean he is a free swinger. He just needs to show more focus at the plate . The fact that Brett Butler is one of our coaches and he had very similar skillset to Dee Gordon but was an amazing OBP guy should work in Dee's favor. Gordon to begin with just needs to perfect his bunting skills and studying the pitchers more. BTW with the Dodgers he had some awesome coaches to work with as well (John Valentin, Dave Lopes and Manny Mota)

 

 

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People keep on forgetting how well Hand was pitching at the end of the season . He has a legitimate opportunity to open the season in the starting rotation. As he has had chances for the last 2 season. I saw him becoming the type of pitcher we all hoped last season. I guess with Heaney we all have set aside the thought of Hand being the southpaw in our rotation but now that he is gone Hand can be again the lone lefty starter

 

Rotation

 

Anderson 24y/o

 

Cozart 24y/o

 

Latos 27y/o

 

Hand 24y/o

 

Koehler 28y/o

 

or

 

Phelps 28y/o

 

Haren 34y/o (hopefully will be traded)

 

 

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The only major move I want to see the Marlins do is to sign Yoan Moncada...I don't think he can be signed yet but The Marlins need to make it happen... You put him as your starting SS over Hech, the lineup would be explosive!

 

1. Dee Gordon (L} 2nd base

 

2. Martin Prado ® 3rd Base

 

3. Christian Yelich (L) LF

 

4. Giancarlo Stanton ® RF

 

5. Michael Morse ® 1st Base

 

6. Marcell Ozuna ® CF

 

7. Yoan Moncada (S) SS

 

8. Jarrod Saltalamacchia (S) C

 

 

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let's see.... so far I've got:

 

In:

 

Morse

 

Latos

 

Haren

 

Prado

 

Gordon

 

Phelps

 

Sizemore

 

Rojas

Rienzo

 

McKirahan

Flores

 

Castillo

Stem

 

out:

 

Eovaldi

 

McGehee

 

Jones

 

Jennings

 

Hatcher

 

Hernandez

 

Heaney

 

Desclafani

 

Flynn

 

German

 

Jensen

 

Wallach

 

Barnes

 

Canha

 

 

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