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ESPN Preseason Rankings: Marlins #20


poptart

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I see us being slightly better than the Mets. Oh well. 

 

​I think it is a pretty even match-up. I feel like the Mets have better starting pitching and bullpen, Marlins have a better offense. I'm just glad to see both teams on the rise and the Phillies and Braves in the shitter

 

 

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I see us being slightly better than the Mets. Oh well. 

 

​I think it is a pretty even match-up. I feel like the Mets have better starting pitching and bullpen, Marlins have a better offense. I'm just glad to see both teams on the rise and the Phillies and Braves in the shitter

 

I don't think this is very close. 

 

Mets starting position players project to a 16.2 WAR. Across the board, it's a very fair projection (i.e., the are giving Wright a good clip, and really positive projections for D'Arnaud, Flores, Lagares. Murphy is a little low though). Marlins are projected at 17.5, with Yelich only at a 3 (4 last year, crazy low. He's going to explode), and combined getting under 2 WAR from Morse, Gordon, and Hech, which is not going to happen. Marlins are going to blow past this and be 5+ wins better in the field.

 

Bullpen, heavily disagree Mets have a better pen. They are good and probably under rated, but combined, Parnell, Familia, Torres, Mejia, Edgin, and Black project to have a .5 WAR next year. They had a .7 last year so it's really not that unfair. I know this is 6 guys and likely Gee is in the pen which is huge, but this group is maybe a 2 WAR cluster at best. Cishek has a 2 WAR last year, and 1.4 the prior year for perspective. He's much better than the Mets by himself by the stats. Even more so, Dunn has had back to back .8 and .9 WAR years. He was worth more than their pen last year. This is a real advantage. Marlins bullpen had around a 3.5 WAR last year (so 3 better than the mets). The Marlins projection next year is 1.8 WAR, which is incredibly low based on last year where everyone is coming back. This is a 3-4 WAR group and conservatively a 1.5+ win advantage. This is also ignoring the Marlins are 8-12 deep in the bullpen so any injuries are immediately going to not have a decline in performance. I think it's very fair to say the Marlins win an extra 2-3 games in the bullpen this year as long as Cishek and Dunn are healthy.

 

The starting pitching, yes the Mets have that, even though the projections actually disagree. They are only projected to have a 6.6 WAR this year (Marlins 7.2 amazingly enough, but they assume Fernandez pitches 125 this year which is high), but that is certainly low due to lack of projections with Harvey and not repeat seasons of real success for DeGrom and Wheeler. This is probably closer to a 10-11 WAR group for the Mets, and probably 8-9 for the Marlins (this includes Haren, and would knock down a game and half without him due to also Phelps being forced into the rotation). I see the Mets winning an extra 2-3 games here, basically making the pitching a total PUSH.

 

Marlins 85, Mets 80. Marlins would have blown them out with Shields or any other #3 or better SP. Mets are 2 position upgrades and a really plus reliever from getting to the Marlins.

 

 

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Your projections regarding the pen are a little faulty. The variance between fWAR and rWAR is stark to say the least . fWAR for Mike Dunn was at a .9 last year and Jeurys Familia (the Mets most reliable set-up man) at a .5. Meanwhile rWAR had Dunn at a .2 and Familia at a 1. Jenrry Mejia was a fWAR/rWAR .2/1 which Cishek was 2/.9 - again, disparate to say the least. Basing projections and value on a stat that is so subjective doesn't convince me. Your projection also doesn't take into account that Parnell - either .7 or 1.2 WAR reliever in his last full season depending on the source - returns to the pen after one appearance last year. In fact I would argue the Mets have 2 proven closers and young power arms throughout middle relief that the Marlins just don't. Cishek took a quantum leap forward in punchouts that will interesting to see if he is able to maintain. Dunn posted 10 wins that I don't expect to see again either.

 

 

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Your projections regarding the pen are a little faulty. The variance between fWAR and rWAR is stark to say the least . fWAR for Mike Dunn was at a .9 last year and Jeurys Familia (the Mets most reliable set-up man) at a .5. Meanwhile rWAR had Dunn at a .2 and Familia at a 1. Jenrry Mejia was a fWAR/rWAR .2/1 which Cishek was 2/.9 - again, disparate to say the least. Basing projections and value on a stat that is so subjective doesn't convince me. Your projection also doesn't take into account that Parnell - either .7 or 1.2 WAR reliever in his last full season depending on the source - returns to the pen after one appearance last year. In fact I would argue the Mets have 2 proven closers and young power arms throughout middle relief that the Marlins just don't. Cishek took a quantum leap forward in punchouts that will interesting to see if he is able to maintain. Dunn posted 10 wins that I don't expect to see again either.

 

​OK, but what is their wPOPAWOPBIPa28+?

 

 

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fWAR and rWAR are the same stat - Wins Against Replacement - but the issue  is different sources have different scales and formulas for calculating. fWAR is from Frangraphs, rWAR is baseball reference, and Baseball Prospect (WARP) calculates it different too. In my example, the different sources rank the players differently

 

 

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fWAR and rWAR are the same stat - Wins Against Replacement - but the issue  is different sources have different scales and formulas for calculating. fWAR is from Frangraphs, rWAR is baseball reference, and Baseball Prospect (WARP) calculates it different too. In my example, the different sources rank the players differently

 

 

The scales on Fangraphs are much more reliable when projecting a year. 

 

Tanner Roark was a top-10 pitcher based on WAR according to baseball-reference last year. Would you project Tanner Roark to be a top-10 pitcher in 2015? I'm guessing you wouldn't. 

 

Particularly for pitchers, fWAR is much more reliable as it bases its number on the independent statistics of a player. Why would you value a metric primarily based on runs-allowed (results-based #) over a metric primarily based on FIP (future indicator) when projecting a year? 

 

 

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The Mets bullpen actually stinks and is nowhere near as good as the Marlins bullpen unless your comparison is based on last year's ERA totals. If that's how you project things in baseball, good luck with that. Fortunately, we have advanced stats these days. Just because Charles Barkley said he didn't like them, that doesn't mean they lost their value.

 

 

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To further prove why rWAR is a joke when projecting players, AJ Ramos (2.0 rWAR) had the highest WAR of all of our relievers last year. Cishek's was at 0.9. 

 

Am I really supposed to project AJ Ramos (the guy with the highest walk rate among relievers who threw 60+ innings last year) to have a better year than Cishek in 2015 because his 2014 ERA said so? 

 

Thinking that Mejia is anywhere near as good as Cishek is laughable. Maybe in a fantasy league where Mejia has SP eligibility; in real life, however, it's not close. At all. 

 

Anything can happen with bullpens year-to-year and Mejia has pretty good stuff so he could improve, but entering the year, trying to compare the two is a joke. Trying to compare these bullpens is a joke. 

 

What the Mets do have is a nice starting rotation (more depth in the rotation than we have for sure), and they have a couple of underrated position players (Lucas Duda comes to mind). 

 

 

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