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Martin Prado Signs 3-Year Extension


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LOL. Jose isn't gonna be a movie. Yes, they'll make a 30 for 30 because it's a great story, but a feature film people are taking way too far. 

 

Things will calm down later on as people have high emotions right now in the moment. Jose was great but the story (outside of the Cuba escape that has been told) will be about lost potential moreso than achieved success. He was 24 years old. Most pitchers are just getting called up to the majors at that age. There's an entire career that isn't going to take place and that really sucks. 

 

 

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So, a serious question, if this team makes no changes to the starting lineup can an upgraded rotation and good depth signings actually make this team competitive?

 

Problem is the lineup this year the Marlins were the 4th worst team in the majors in runs scored. The team being 4th best in batting average happened to make people overlook that (plus the fact that sabermetrics statistics suggest a vast portion of our lineup overperformed this season). The lack of power (6th worst SLG% in baseball) is a big problem. 

 

The lineup was due for a regression next year, and a starting rotation with Jose was expected to be bottom 12 in baseball next season anyway. Without him it's bottom 3. I don't think there's any signings that move the rotation beyond bottom 5. 

 

I'm expecting the team to fight hard next season, but on paper it's a low 70 win team. 

 

 

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I believe so

Because to me the Prado extension is a sign of the front office saying they're not rebuilding next year and at least for one more season are gonna try to be competitive. Pair that with the issue of how do you part with any of these core players and I think the entire starting lineup stays and the team goes all out to add to the rotation and depth. Whether or not the available pieces are out there and can be realistically had is a whole other topic but I feel like that's what the front office is conveying at this point.
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The core lineup of this team (Stanton/Ozuna/Hech/Yelich) has been together since 2014. Here are the Marlins ranking in runs scored by year

 

2014: 16th (645 runs scored)

 

2015: 29th (613 runs scored)

 

2016: 27th (637 runs scored/661 extrapolated for full season)

 

Team OPS rankings during that time

 

2014: 15th (.694 OPS)

 

2015: 26th (.694 OPS)

 

2016: 25th (.718 OPS)

 

All numbers signal the Marlins offense made marginal improvements offensively this year, but that the major leagues took a giant leap forward offensively. The Marlins offensively are not progressing as fast as the rest of the league and it's costing them in the standings. 

 

 

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The question becomes do you believe Stanton will become 2012 Stanton-like next year, Dee Gordon will play like 2015, and the rest of the lineup will overperform in the contact department like they did in 2016? Do you believe all these factors will happen at the same time together? Because if they do, the Marlins have a league average offense. Statistically, it's pretty amazing the Marlins are at .500 given the output they've given this season. They should be lower. 

 

Is a completely decimated starting rotation, a league average offense, and an above average bullpen (which is what I think the Marlins have) good enough to make the 2nd wild card next season? On paper it is no. But the emotional side could carry them early next year. 

 

And the other alternative to keeping this team is rebuild. Which isn't really an option at the moment.

 

 

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Chen was originally signed as the #2 guy.  You hope for a rebound healthy season from him and continued improvement from Conley.  Those aren't outlandish  (Chen was awful but his history shows he should be better).  Phelps and Koehler are serviceable at the back end of the rotation.   Problem is replacing Jose, not only will they be missing a #1, I think what's out there in FA is no better than #4/#5 type guys.  The Gio idea isn't bad whoever brought that up.  I don't think you can count on Urena.  Wish Austin Brice had gotten some starts down the stretch to see if there's anything there.

 

Awesome on Prado though, good news. 

 

 

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