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Article: 2017 Offseason: Where Do The Marlins Go From Here?


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The funny thing about Doug Fister is he raised his ERA by a full run in the final month of the season. Went from 3.60 to 4.60 in a span of 6 starts, losing all of them. Before that he had gone at least 5 2/3 IP in 20 of his first 26 starts. He gave 3 ER or less in 22 of his 32 starts. He had a 2 month stretch in May/June when he had a 2.66 ERA. 

 

He signed a 1 year, $7 million deal with the Astros to play this year, and after sh*tting the bed to end the season he's set to get about the same thing. He'd either be Mat Latos 2.0 or Mark Buerhle 2.0 for us. At that price tag it would be dumb not to see which one he'll be.

 

 

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Back to the point of the thread, I gotta think both Rodney and Dunn are more likely out of here than not. The Marlins have seen enough negative of both that I'm pretty sure they're already looking past them.

 

Well Rodney's apparently on the way out (didn't realize his salary more than doubled due to him achieving incentives). Now I'm pretty annoyed we gave up Paddack for somebody who gave us a 6 ERA in two months. Expected him to get at least another month next year to prove himself since Rodney's success is always predicated on confidence. 

 

Mike Dunn isn't going though. Lefty veteran who has been pretty consistent and was solid out of the 'pen last season. Don't see why he shouldn't be there.

 

 

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Well Rodney's apparently on the way out (didn't realize his salary more than doubled due to him achieving incentives). Now I'm pretty annoyed we gave up Paddack for somebody who gave us a 6 ERA in two months. Expected him to get at least another month next year to prove himself since Rodney's success is always predicated on confidence. 

Mike Dunn isn't going though. Lefty veteran who has been pretty consistent and was solid out of the 'pen last season. Don't see why he shouldn't be there.

Dunn is a free agent, not sure if you knew that. Marlins have seen plenty of him and if they even entertain the thought of bringing him back I'm sure they'll have a limit on their offer and then other teams will swoop in and offer more money. I have to believe his chances are returning here are extremely low.
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I'm not sure what the market value for somebody like Dunn will be though. He avoided arbitration with a $3 million a year deal in 2015 after a 3.16 ERA season, but again that was arbitration and I don't know what teams will pay for him. I do know the Marlins would love him back.

 

 

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I only started the article, but I call BS on Luis Castillo being a top 100 prospect. I like the guy as a pitcher and he made great strides in 2016, but he's not even a top 150 prospect. Braxton Garrett is our only top 100 guy and that is just out of principle of being a top 10 draft pick. I am highly skeptical of the Rays trade you offer forward. While I'm always ok with upgrading at shortstop, that trade does the exact opposite that needs to be done to improve. The Marlins were league average when it came to getting on base and far above average at hitting the ball, but were one of the worst in the league in power statistics leading to low end run support. Ozuna is one of the only guys left on the roster that has legitimate 30 home run power. Take that away and we have even less runs next season.

 

I'm going to point out that Hechavarria carries a negative value currently, and Flores is a pointless value at the moment given his poor AAA production this season.

 

So when I look at a straight up Ozuna for Adames trade, it basically becomes giving away consistent MLB performance at a loaded position versus unknown potential at a premium position. Good shortstops are hard to find in the league today. Adames is a 21 year old who has only reached AA who has never shown an ability to hit for contact or power in the minors. He's a top 50 prospect for a reason, and it's all about potential and his discipline at the plate. Long term, Adames could very easily become the better player and better value in the trade, but that won't happen for another four or five years while he finds his bearings in the majors. If your plan involves the Marlins going full rebuild mode, then that is an acceptable trade to consider. But if you want them to look towards competing soon, it isn't.

 

Chih-Wei Yu has incredible minor league numbers and it would be amazing to get him. Again, the issue with a Hu trade would be he'll need three or four years to truly develop. I believe value wise his potential is equal to the value Ozuna provides right now, but that would mean going into rebuild mode.

 

As for Blanco, I'd rather just stick with Hech for another year as terrible as that sounds. The value Hech adds defensively makes him pretty much the same value of a player as Blanco. The shortstop market in free agency is awful and it will likely be awful for a while so I don't see the Marlins moving on from Hech anytime soon.

 

Doug Fister is a perfectly fine signing and the kind of moves the Marlins should always try to make. Getting a pitcher who was once a star and after a couple bad seasons is of incredibly low value on the market. Won't cost much to see whether Fister still has anything left in the tank or if he is truly on the downturn of his career. I actually expect Fister to be one of the Marlins signings this offseason.

 

Ivan Nova is the other side of the coin. Historically inconsistent pitcher who had a career year in a short amount of time (11 starts) and is likely to get a relatively big money, long term-ish deal where he's bound to regress. I'd stay far away from a bidding war that takes place for Nova. 

 

As for Tim Lincecum, I think it's safe to say he's done barring some minor miracle. He was absolutely awful with the Angels this year and his career is just DOA. I have no problems signing him to a minor league contract since the rule of thumb is that there really is no such bad thing as a minor league deal, but I don't think we'll ever seen Big Time Timmy Jim pitching in the big leagues again.

You make fair points. I'll go through ths peice by peice.

 

Highly disagree that Castillo isn't a top 100 prospect. His changsup needs work but his FB is already rated 80 by multiple sources and he barely touched AA. Of course his numbers will normalize a bit away from Jupiter but if he grows into his arm speed as I said and learns to command his stuff by not overthrowing in bases occupied situations, he will easily be a top 3 starter in this league and especially in Miami.

 

Giving up power in the OF for a gifted shortstop is a necessary risk and adames is as close to a sure thing as they come. He's succeeded tons against older talent at every level of the minors. While I like Ozuna as a player, he works best defensively in RF which he can't possibly play here on a regular basis. He's also far from a sure thing when it comes to hitting 30 or even 20 HRs. Yeah the power is there but he's nearing 27 and has yet to do it. Not saying he never will. Just saying I question ye fact he's a perennial 30 HR threat.

 

As for Hu you got it right. He's very close to the majors because of a stellar MILB career. He's shut scouts up about his lack of athletic build by throwing awesome secondary stuff. His delivery is as deceptive as they come and his arm speed is fantastic. I really want him.

 

As for Hech having negative value I laid out a few weeks ago how his batted ball stats paint him as a mystery as to why he hit what he did this year. Blanco who yes, is older, didn't have that problem though he won't hit what he did in Philly here but he is a perfectly fine single season (if that) stopgap to Adames. I think a team like the Rays who are rebuilding, if they look at Hech's detailed stats, will be willing to take the slight risk on him. As bad as he was Hech doesn't have to mash the ball and likely never will in order to be a plus value player. Reasons for that are obvious.

 

I disagree with you that Nova will get big money. After just slight success as you laid out and lots of injury history I think he will come at a decent price. Though other teams will probably be interested, I doubt they'll want to commit to him long term until he at least proves this version of him that he showed in Pittsburgh is for real. While I wouldn't get into a bidding war either, we should at least be a player considering what the in house alternatives are (though I do still like Brice and think he could become a back end starter). Again, a guy like Fister will be a stop gap to Hu (if we get him) and Castillo. If we get Nova and he is still decent, we could move a guy like Koehler at the break.

 

 

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