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Article: 2017 Offseason: Where Do The Marlins Go From Here?


Hammerhead
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I only started the article, but I call BS on Luis Castillo being a top 100 prospect. I like the guy as a pitcher and he made great strides in 2016, but he's not even a top 150 prospect. Braxton Garrett is our only top 100 guy and that is just out of principle of being a top 10 draft pick. 

 

I am highly skeptical of the Rays trade you offer forward. While I'm always ok with upgrading at shortstop, that trade does the exact opposite that needs to be done to improve. The Marlins were league average when it came to getting on base and far above average at hitting the ball, but were one of the worst in the league in power statistics leading to low end run support. Ozuna is one of the only guys left on the roster that has legitimate 30 home run power. Take that away and we have even less runs next season.

 

I'm going to point out that Hechavarria carries a negative value currently, and Flores is a pointless value at the moment given his poor AAA production this season.

 

So when I look at a straight up Ozuna for Adames trade, it basically becomes giving away consistent MLB performance at a loaded position versus unknown potential at a premium position. Good shortstops are hard to find in the league today. Adames is a 21 year old who has only reached AA who has never shown an ability to hit for contact or power in the minors. He's a top 50 prospect for a reason, and it's all about potential and his discipline at the plate. Long term, Adames could very easily become the better player and better value in the trade, but that won't happen for another four or five years while he finds his bearings in the majors. If your plan involves the Marlins going full rebuild mode, then that is an acceptable trade to consider. But if you want them to look towards competing soon, it isn't.

 

Chih-Wei Yu has incredible minor league numbers and it would be amazing to get him. Again, the issue with a Hu trade would be he'll need three or four years to truly develop. I believe value wise his potential is equal to the value Ozuna provides right now, but that would mean going into rebuild mode.

 

As for Blanco, I'd rather just stick with Hech for another year as terrible as that sounds. The value Hech adds defensively makes him pretty much the same value of a player as Blanco. The shortstop market in free agency is awful and it will likely be awful for a while so I don't see the Marlins moving on from Hech anytime soon.

 

Doug Fister is a perfectly fine signing and the kind of moves the Marlins should always try to make. Getting a pitcher who was once a star and after a couple bad seasons is of incredibly low value on the market. Won't cost much to see whether Fister still has anything left in the tank or if he is truly on the downturn of his career. I actually expect Fister to be one of the Marlins signings this offseason.

 

Ivan Nova is the other side of the coin. Historically inconsistent pitcher who had a career year in a short amount of time (11 starts) and is likely to get a relatively big money, long term-ish deal where he's bound to regress. I'd stay far away from a bidding war that takes place for Nova. 

 

As for Tim Lincecum, I think it's safe to say he's done barring some minor miracle. He was absolutely awful with the Angels this year and his career is just DOA. I have no problems signing him to a minor league contract since the rule of thumb is that there really is no such bad thing as a minor league deal, but I don't think we'll ever seen Big Time Timmy Jim pitching in the big leagues again.

 

 

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I've said I want to go after Gio Gonzalez, and yes I know it is incredibly unrealistic to see the Nationals not picking up his option. But that would be my first go-to player if things fall through.

 

I believe the way to winning is through the rotation. It needs to be fixed, and the biggest trade pieces this team has are Marcell Ozuna, AJ Ramos, Derek Dietrich, Tomas Telis, Tom Koehler, and maybe Hech.

 

The Marlins needed at least a #2 starter with Jose. Without Jose they need a rotation that cannot be fixed in a years time. It's going to take time to rebuild it now. I don't know who that guy will be, but giving up AJ Ramos for him would be the ideal situation (and I'd be willing to throw in Ozuna for the right person). 

 

The team next year going in should look like...

 

C Realmuto

 

1B Bour

 

2B Gordon

 

SS Rojas (I'm open to giving him a full season try despite his own shortcomings)

 

3B Prado

 

LF Yelich

 

CF Ozuna (barring a trade)

 

RF Stanton

 

Rotation (this is with trading Koehler)

 

Wei-Yin Chen

 

Adam Conley

 

Doug Fister

 

David Phelps

 

??? (Guys I've seen that could be interesting matches include Jake Peavy, R.A. Dickey, and Jorge De La Rosa. In house options here will be Austin Brice, Justin Nicolino, and Jose Urena).

 

Bullpen (this would be without Ramos, who should be a prime trade target)

 

Closer: Kyle Barraclough

 

Setup: Nick Wittgren

 

RP: Fernando Rodney

 

RP: Brian Ellington

 

RP: Mike Dunn

 

RP: Austin Brice

 

RP: Jose Urena

 

RP: Chris Reed

 

Rest of RP are random free agent signings. 

 

That's how I would like to see the team constructed next season. In the event of an Ozuna trade, I'd like to see the team target either Austin Jackson or try and go big to get Josh Reddick in free agency. 

 

I think the rotation is going to be poor regardless of what you do. However, I do think there are some underrated value players that could help fix things. David Phelps was spectacular last season in the role and while he's obviously due to regress it would be a mistake not to give him a job to open the year. I also believe Austin Brice is an excellent sleeper candidate to become a respectable starter in 2017, similar to what Adam Conley did for us this year. Brice was our best starting pitching prospect who the team inexplicably moved to the bullpen with successful results. While the numbers have been good in relief, it would be a mistake to not see what you have in him as a starter. 

 

Other than that my plan is about getting veteran pitchers on their last run. Guys like Peavy, Dickey, and De La Rosa would make for great clubhouse guys and can have good seasons at a cheap cost with no long term investment. Instead of splurging in the market, those are the kind of moves that are needed to push the needle without a farm system.

 

 

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