97marlin Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 this is going on his 4th year with the big league club and his control has only gotten worse, not to mention he was the same pitcher essentially his entire time climbing up through the system. He has no potential. What are you talking about he has been a 14/6 guy his whole career in the minor leagues. The walks suck, but its the home runs that made him a bad guy. His fastball is good. He is a 1 inning guy. With the high strikeout history he doesn't have to be a precision guy. To be successful he has to walk 10% of all hitters he faces. He should strike out 20+% of all batters. I don't think no potential is fair. He isn't an all star, but I mean a spot on a 90+ loss team he is a worthwhile option, with potential trade value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fish20 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 What are you talking about he has been a 14/6 guy his whole career in the minor leagues. The walks suck, but its the home runs that made him a bad guy. His fastball is good. He is a 1 inning guy. With the high strikeout history he doesn't have to be a precision guy. To be successful he has to walk 10% of all hitters he faces. He should strike out 20+% of all batters. I don't think no potential is fair. He isn't an all star, but I mean a spot on a 90+ loss team he is a worthwhile option, with potential trade value. not sure what you mean by 14/6 guy. Like 14 k's per 9 and 6 walks per 9? No potential might have been a little harsh, but i see very little chance he suddenly learns how to throw strikes and until he does so he cant be an effective reliever for anything more than garbage innings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
97marlin Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 not sure what you mean by 14/6 guy. Like 14 k's per 9 and 6 walks per 9? No potential might have been a little harsh, but i see very little chance he suddenly learns how to throw strikes and until he does so he cant be an effective reliever for anything more than garbage innings. yes, precisely what i meant. I just think for him to be good he doesn't have to change his k's or bb's he just has to not give up homeruns. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fish20 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 yes, precisely what i meant. I just think for him to be good he doesn't have to change his k's or bb's he just has to not give up homeruns. He's been nowhere near 14 k's per 9 in his career. Including both majors and minors he is at 8.59 k's per 9 per fangraphs and 5.61 bb's/9 innings as well. 5.61 walks per 9 is absolutely horrendous. Also, he gives up a lot of hr's because guys know he has no offspeed pitches and so when they arent being walked or struck out they hit hr's because they sit on his fastball and try to catch up to it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
97marlin Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 He's been nowhere near 14 k's per 9 in his career. Including both majors and minors he is at 8.59 k's per 9 per fangraphs and 5.61 bb's/9 innings as well. 5.61 walks per 9 is absolutely horrendous. Also, he gives up a lot of hr's because guys know he has no offspeed pitches and so when they arent being walked or struck out they hit hr's because they sit on his fastball and try to catch up to it. Ellington? in 2016 in triple A had 34 IP, 54 k's with 26 bb's. 2017 24 IP, 36 k's 11 bb's. per fangraphs. He has never produced those numbers in the majors. but he has produced those numbers. Both instances he controlled home runs. If he can do that in the majors that is a FIP of right around 4. Making him a useful major league pitcher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fish20 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Ellington? in 2016 in triple A had 34 IP, 54 k's with 26 bb's. 2017 24 IP, 36 k's 11 bb's. per fangraphs. He has never produced those numbers in the majors. but he has produced those numbers. Both instances he controlled home runs. If he can do that in the majors that is a FIP of right around 4. Making him a useful major league pitcher. I was talking about for his career as a whole. And the reason he controlled the HR's in those years is the same reason why Nicolino can pitch well for extended stretches in New Orleans but gets rocked when he comes up. Different cases because Ellington has better stuff whereas Nicolino uses his talent advantage in AAA through his feel for pitching, but neither of them have the stuff to consistently produce at the MLB level. Again, Ellington kept the HR's down in AAA because guys either cant catch up to his fastball there and doesnt have to use the offspeed pitches as much. Unless he develops a significantly better breaking ball and/or much better control, he'll always be what he is currently which is a guy who throws fast but has no control and has no offspeed pitch so hitters sit on his fastball and thats why he gives up a lot of hr's and walks. Those types of guys dont work out in the big leagues because flaws generally get taken advantage of in the big leagues as opposed to the minors when a lot of times you can get by on sheer "stuff." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
97marlin Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 I was talking about for his career as a whole. And the reason he controlled the HR's in those years is the same reason why Nicolino can pitch well for extended stretches in New Orleans but gets rocked when he comes up. Different cases because Ellington has better stuff whereas Nicolino uses his talent advantage in AAA through his feel for pitching, but neither of them have the stuff to consistently produce at the MLB level. Again, Ellington kept the HR's down in AAA because guys either cant catch up to his fastball there and doesnt have to use the offspeed pitches as much. Unless he develops a significantly better breaking ball and/or much better control, he'll always be what he is currently which is a guy who throws fast but has no control and has no offspeed pitch so hitters sit on his fastball and thats why he gives up a lot of hr's and walks. Those types of guys dont work out in the big leagues because flaws generally get taken advantage of in the big leagues as opposed to the minors when a lot of times you can get by on sheer "stuff." Nicolino is an entirely different monster. He stopped striking people out in 2014. and to me never regained his status as a prospect. He was a flyball pitcher without an ability to strike guys out. Ellington is a guy with great stuff who hasn't found a way to use it effectively at the major league level. The difference is Ellington is almost useful. Nicolino will never be useful as is. Just as an asside the way you speak about minor league numbers makes me think you just don't trust minor league numbers as a whole. Just to further the asside, what do you think of guys like Guzman, and Elieser Hernandez. and Graves? Would you be happy with any of these guys starting for our team this year? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fish20 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Nicolino is an entirely different monster. He stopped striking people out in 2014. and to me never regained his status as a prospect. He was a flyball pitcher without an ability to strike guys out. Ellington is a guy with great stuff who hasn't found a way to use it effectively at the major league level. The difference is Ellington is almost useful. Nicolino will never be useful as is. Just as an asside the way you speak about minor league numbers makes me think you just don't trust minor league numbers as a whole. Just to further the asside, what do you think of guys like Guzman, and Elieser Hernandez. and Graves? Would you be happy with any of these guys starting for our team this year? I dont consider guys who cant throw strikes and dont have a breaking ball to have great stuff, so id disagree that ellington has great stuff. He doesnt have great stuff, he just throws fast. Theres a big difference between the 2. I trust minor league numbers but it depends on the context in which they are produced. A 27 year old lighting the GCL on fire obviously is different than a 19 year old doing it. And I love Guzman's potential but he's still not pitched above short season ball. Hernandez i want on the big league team because i think he has potential and id rather not lose him for nothng in a year where we are gonna suck. Graves i could care less about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverBullet Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 I keep having to remind myself that this thread is about Jordan Yamamoto and not about Brian Ellington. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Posted March 6, 2018 Author Share Posted March 6, 2018 I keep having to remind myself that this thread is about Jordan Yamamoto and not about Brian Ellington. Put your glasses on and look at the thread title Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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