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2020 TV Deal: Future of the Marlins as we know it?


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So I know the new TV Deal isn’t set to expire for a little while. But I think it is a very important topic. I would like to talk about the new TV Deal but first, I would like to say something on attendance. I’m not sure winning will solve it. However, I do want to point out something. In the 2015-2016 season, the Florida Panthers had their best regular season in history and STILL finished 24th in attendance. The Heat consistenly have top ten attendance because they have a great track record. I believe in the 30 seasons of the Miami Heat, they have made the playoffs 19 or 20 times. So 2 out of 3 years, they make the playoffs, that’s incredible. Obviously, baseball is much different than hockey and basketball. And yes, the Marlins and Panthers don’t have a track record even close to the Heat. HOWEVER, one advantage baseball has over basketball and especially hockey are the giant television contracts. I know the Panthers make very little from their Fox Sports Deal, idk about the Heat. The Marlins TV Contract is up for renewal after the 2020 season. The Ray just negotiated a deal worth about $80-$85 million. Keep in mind, while the Rays were competive between 2008-2013, they have no world series titles. Not only do the Marlins have 2 World Series titles, but the Marlins play in a major international city. Miami is the gateway to Latin America. I think if the Rays can get $80-$85 Million per season, I’m expecting the Marlins to get no less than $100 Million per season for their new television contract. I believe the Marlins are at about $20 million per year now. Imagine $100 million per year compared to $20 million. Miami can actually become a big market team. And factor this in, the Marlins will still have merchandising revenue, concession revenue, parking revenue, luxury box revenue in addition to the new TV deal. Tbh, I could care less about attendance. I think the future of the Marlins as we know it hinges on that new 2020 TV Deal. Not to sound dramatic, but I think this is accurate. 

 

 

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Maybe we would sign big name FA after got the new TV deal just like the Dbacks sign Greinke after got the new TV deal.

 

Just has to be a smart contract, there have been a lot of bad ones in the past both by the Marlins and other teams. The problem is that the Marlins can't handle a bad monster deal so they have to be more cautious than say the Yankees.

 

 

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To answer the question, yes the new TV deal is gonna be very significant and I just pray that the front office and ownership knows how crucial this is. 

 

One could almost argue that if the Marlins got a better TV deal the last time around there could have been several more winning seasons over the last decade. 

 

 

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Why was the last tv deal so bad?  I'm sure some will say incompetence, but Loria and company proved to know how to make a one-sided bargain (stadium deal) so I'm not sure that flies.  Wasn't it because the Marlins' deal simply came up for renewal before the huge rush from cable networks to overpay for live sports programming, since that was the only thing that people watched live?  But, that has since changed with the rise of cord cutting and a la carte cable options.  I wonder if by 2020 it will be too late to get a deal comparable to what other teams received a few years ago.

 

 

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Why was the last tv deal so bad?  I'm sure some will say incompetence, but Loria and company proved to know how to make a one-sided bargain (stadium deal) so I'm not sure that flies.  Wasn't it because the Marlins' deal simply came up for renewal before the huge rush from cable networks to overpay for live sports programming, since that was the only thing that people watched live?  But, that has since changed with the rise of cord cutting and a la carte cable options.  I wonder if by 2020 it will be too late to get a deal comparable to what other teams received a few years ago.

 

Yeah, I think that's basically it - we were too early for the cable rights bubble, and yes, there's also been concerns that we'll be too late for it too.

 

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/barry-jackson/article184371948.html

 

 

1) They believe the annual rights of their TV contract will jump dramatically from $20 million per year when the deal with Fox expires after 2020. One person who bid on the Marlins said bidders projected, after 2020, an annual increase to somewhere between $40 million and $70 million. But while an increase is expected, the amount will depend on whether the Marlins can find a legitimate bidder to challenge Fox. There isn’t one yet that has emerged, with Comcast having shown little interest in Marlins rights in the past.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/miami-marlins/fl-sp-marlins-end-of-offseason-20170212-story.html

 

 

The larger potential revenue source for the Marlins is their TV rights.

 

Their current arrangement with Fox Sports Florida gives them about $20 million every year through 2020.

 

 

The money associated with local TV deals has exploded in recent years. The Marlins — locked in with FSF — have not been able to capitalize. The large-market Los Angeles Dodgers, for example, are getting a reported $6 billion over 25 years from Time Warner Cable, while even small-market teams are getting three and four times as much as the Marlins.

Here's info on the Rays' deal:

 

 

The Sports Business Journal reports the Rays are close to a 15-year extension with Fox Sports regional Sun Sports network that will pay on average $82 million per year.

 

The Rays are entering the final year of their current deal on Fox Sports Sun. The team is due to receive close to $35 million this season, the last one under that deal, sources said.

 

Fox’s payout is expected to increase to around $50 million in 2019 under the new contract. Over the 15-year life of the deal, which would run through the 2033 season, Fox would pay, on average, around $82 million per year, sources said.

 

Complicating matters is the fact that 21st Century Fox is selling the Fox Sports RSN group to Disney as part of a $52.4 billion deal that includes the company’s entertainment assets.

 

Negotiating a new television contract is a significant step toward the Rays affording their desired new stadium in Ybor City and could have payroll implications for the product on the major league field as well.

 

Despite poor stadium attendance, the Rays regularly rank in the top half of baseball in television ratings (according to Neilsen and Forbes), and generally field an entertaining team.

https://www.draysbay.com/2018/2/26/17054156/tampa-bay-rays-new-television-deal-annual-tv-revenue-fox-sports-sun-sports

 

Marlins should put up their own TV network "FishTV"

 

I think in order for something like that to work, you'd have to bring the other local professional teams (Dolphins, Panthers, Heat) into it too - a "south Florida sports network" if you will - otherwise, I'd wonder how much revenue a "fish TV" (Marlins only) could truly generate.

 

 

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Why was the last tv deal so bad?  I'm sure some will say incompetence, but Loria and company proved to know how to make a one-sided bargain (stadium deal) so I'm not sure that flies.  Wasn't it because the Marlins' deal simply came up for renewal before the huge rush from cable networks to overpay for live sports programming, since that was the only thing that people watched live?  But, that has since changed with the rise of cord cutting and a la carte cable options.  I wonder if by 2020 it will be too late to get a deal comparable to what other teams received a few years ago.

 

Yeah I don't think it was Loria and Samson not knowing how to get a better deal I think it was them not realizing that a way better deal could be had. They were lowballed and accepted it. 

 

 

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I wonder if they can negotiate earlier in any way. Like not having to wait until after 2020 to upgrade to a better deal. 

 

We aren't the Dodgers or Yankees but gotta figure it's at the very least gonna go up right? 

 

It’s complicated because the fox regional networks are currently up for sale. Disney bought them from fox as part of their bigger deal but the feds are forcing Disney to sell them because they feel it’s a monopoly with espn.  So I doubt any team deals are worked out anytime soon.

 

 

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I looked up some info on TV ratings.

 

here are numbers for this year (through July 15th):

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybrown/2018/07/19/prime-time-tv-ratings-for-each-team-at-the-mlb-all-star-break/#1a0c92cf4c4f

 

Team.....HH Rating......HH(thousands).....all tv rank......cable rank

 

Rays...........2.34.......................44.......................3........................1

 

Marlins......1.16.......................19......................11.......................4

 

For 17 vs 16:

 

#.....Team.....'16 rank.....'17 rating.....000's.....'16 rating.....+/- '16....rank all tv.....rank cable.....rank ESPN all tv

 

18.....Rays..........13.............2.70...........52..............2.85............-5%............3....................1..........................11

 

26.....Marlins......25............1.32............22..............1.88..........-30%...........8....................1..........................17

 

For 15 vs 14:

 

#......Team.....'15 rank.....'14 rating.....+/- ....000's....rank all tv.....rank cable

 

13....Rays.........4.29...........4.32............-1%.....78................2...................1

 

25....Marlins.....1.99..........1.69............18%.....33..............7....................1

 

Point being, the Rays have better TV ratings.

 

 

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I wonder if they can negotiate earlier in any way. Like not having to wait until after 2020 to upgrade to a better deal. 

 

We aren't the Dodgers or Yankees but gotta figure it's at the very least gonna go up right? 

 

Samson was talking that they were trying to renegotiate early, but obviously that was halted with the sale of the team.

 

Regardless, the TV rights should go up, yes.  The question is - by how much.

 

 

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Samson was talking that they were trying to renegotiate early, but obviously that was halted with the sale of the team.

 

Regardless, the TV rights should go up, yes.  The question is - by how much.

 

I don't want them to aim low but as bad as our current deal I'm almost thinking any realistic increase will be huge for us. 

 

Of course getting some mega deal would be phenomenal but it's almost like when you haven't had a vacation in forever and you just get a little mini vacation and it just feels like the best vacation ever... lol y'all know what I mean right? 

 

 

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If I remember correctly... this is how we got stuck with the TV deal as it was.

 

In 1998 when Huizinga was slashing payroll, he approached the Dodgers owners(at the time Fox) with an idea.

 

The Dodgers were in the middle of a contract standoff with Piazza and refused to give him the 5 years 90 million he wanted.

 

The Marlins / Huizinga were in the middle of a firesale and desperately wanted to slash payroll anyway they can.

 

Huizinga approached the Dodgers with a Sheff, Bonilla, Eisenrich, Johnson and Barrios offer for Piazza and Zeile because he knew he could flip them much quicker than the Marlins players, especially since Sheff had a No Trade Clause.

 

Sheff waived it after the Dodgers gave him a moving bonus, and the Marlins eventually shipped Piazza out for what would become Preston Wilson and Mike Lowell.

 

Part of the agreement, a handshake agreement as it was- was that in exchange for taking the 5 players off the Marlins hands, Huizinga would sign a friendly TV rights deal with FSN, especially because he had one foot out the door already.

 

In other words, Henry and Loria both inherited the horrible deal because Huizinga wanted to save money.

 

I'm almost positive it's the same Huizinga approved deal, but I'm 100% sure thats what happened in 1998.

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Huizinga also signed the lease agreement between the Marlins and Dolphins that handcuffed the next owners (concession and souvenier stands ran by the Dolphins, adverts on stadium to Dolphins, ads on field and seats to Marlins).

 

It was a double "WAMI" Henry and Loria couldn't deal with. 

 

 

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From what I just looked for:

 

"According to then Dodgers general manager Fred Claire, the Piazza swap was negotiated by Fox television executives without his knowledge. Their intention was not to improve the Dodgers but to incentivize Marlins owner H. Wayne Huizenga to sell Fox a Florida regional sports network he owned. As Claire later pointed out, there was nothing typical about the trade. It happened in May, not at the trading deadline. Piazza didn't go to a contender but to a team bent on losing 100 games. It wasn't about baseball."

 

 

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Samson worked out the current deal and he even took fault for it a year or so ago.

 

 

 

Samson worked out the current deal and he even took fault for it a year or so ago.

 

Huh, didn't know that. I guess they were in a hurry to get anything better than what was negotiated.

 

Am I wrong the Huizinga essentally signed the lease agreement with himself as the Marlins and Dolphins?

 

 

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I looked up some info on TV ratings.

 

here are numbers for this year (through July 15th):

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybrown/2018/07/19/prime-time-tv-ratings-for-each-team-at-the-mlb-all-star-break/#1a0c92cf4c4f

 

Team.....HH Rating......HH(thousands).....all tv rank......cable rank

 

Rays...........2.34.......................44.......................3........................1

 

Marlins......1.16.......................19......................11.......................4

 

For 17 vs 16:

 

#.....Team.....'16 rank.....'17 rating.....000's.....'16 rating.....+/- '16....rank all tv.....rank cable.....rank ESPN all tv

 

18.....Rays..........13.............2.70...........52..............2.85............-5%............3....................1..........................11

 

26.....Marlins......25............1.32............22..............1.88..........-30%...........8....................1..........................17

 

For 15 vs 14:

 

#......Team.....'15 rank.....'14 rating.....+/- ....000's....rank all tv.....rank cable

 

13....Rays.........4.29...........4.32............-1%.....78................2...................1

 

25....Marlins.....1.99..........1.69............18%.....33..............7....................1

 

Point being, the Rays have better TV ratings.

 

Does it means more people watching the Rays games on TV than the people watching the Marlins games on TV ?

 

 

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Is it fair to expect $100 million per year with the new TV deal?

 

Well, I'd like to think we have more market potential than the Rays if we ever become good and the whole latin america thing, but the Rays deal only goes to $82M/year, and they have far better ratings than we do (though they've also been more competitive).  Let's hope we can at least match the figures of that deal.  One of the articles (written before the sale) I linked to, though, mentioned that prospective bidders for the team projected TV rights in the $40-70M/year range, which is far better than the current $20M/year, but doesn't match the Rays.

 

Does it means more people watching the Rays games on TV than the people watching the Marlins games on TV ?

 

Yes.  The Rays seem to tend to be midpack, while the Marlins are in the lower third at best.

 

 

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