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Miami Marlins Top 32 Prospects


SilverBullet
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Not for nothing, but did the Stanton and Yelich trades really fix the farm? Those two trades taken out and everything else the same, this team is in a better position.

 

I don't know about totally "fixing" the farm but this whole topic is about Fangraphs' top 32 Marlins prospects and every prospect we got for Stanton and Yelich is on that list so even with Stanton being mostly a salary dump and even with the Yelich return looking underwhelming so far yes those 2 trades did help improve our farm system. Our farm system is definitely better with Guzman Devers Yamamoto Diaz and Harrison in it. 

 

 

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I don't know about totally "fixing" the farm but this whole topic is about Fangraphs' top 32 Marlins prospects and every prospect we got for Stanton and Yelich is on that list so even with Stanton being mostly a salary dump and even with the Yelich return looking underwhelming so far yes those 2 trades did help improve our farm system. Our farm system is definitely better with Guzman Devers Yamamoto Diaz and Harrison in it. 

 

What about our whole system, top to bottom- is it better without Stanton, Yelich and Realmuto in it?

 

 

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Only two of the top ten on that list were part of the organization at the end of 2017.  That’s meaningful and illustrates how dire things were. Also with all the fanfare surrounding Mesa he’s still ranked behind four guys acquired last winter.  

 

Mesa hasn't played in a while and never in pro ball. He could easily become 55/60FV player in like a month

 

 

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What about our whole system, top to bottom- is it better without Stanton, Yelich and Realmuto in it?

 

Yes... because with Stanton and Yelich on the team the farm system is worse than it is today. Yes we would have a better MLB lineup but how does that matter if the team is still a losing team with no farm system behind it?

 

And u mentioned Realmuto who hasn't been traded yet so u aren't taking that return into account. I think if we trade Realmuto and are able to add Kyle Tucker to our system then hell yeah our system is better without Stanton Yelich and Realmuto because the whole system has to be accounted for... 3 spots in the MLB lineup doesn't cover up the rest of the organization being shit. 

 

 

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I wouldn't be surprised if no one from the Ozuna and Stanton trades has any real future.

 

This is a bit of an exaggeration IMO. Sandy is Urena at worst. He should develop into a nice #3 starter as he learns how to pitch. 

 

I feel fairly confident in saying Guzman should at WORST be a serviceable back in bullpen piece 

 

Not a fan of Gallen and Devers is a wait and see. Sierra is irrelevant to me 

 

 

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Yes... because with Stanton and Yelich on the team the farm system is worse than it is today. Yes we would have a better MLB lineup but how does that matter if the team is still a losing team with no farm system behind it?

 

And u mentioned Realmuto who hasn't been traded yet so u aren't taking that return into account. I think if we trade Realmuto and are able to add Kyle Tucker to our system then hell yeah our system is better without Stanton Yelich and Realmuto because the whole system has to be accounted for... 3 spots in the MLB lineup doesn't cover up the rest of the organization being shit. 

 

You build a farm system to compete at the major league level. If you have three holes in your major league lineup, whatever you have is irrelevant.

 

You build to win championships at the MLB level, having a farm full of potential is the literal equivalent of

 

A bird (MLBer) in hand is worth two (Prospects) in the bush.

 

You're supposed to keep your MLB talent and complement it with a farm system. If you don't have a farm, you draft and sign international free agents. You don't have to trade great players for the hope you get one back. I understand Stanton's was money motivated, but that was short sighted. His departure opened three holes in our lineup.

 

I get it, everyone would rather have the farm system we have now over those players- but I'm arguing having those players complemented by whatever else we get in trades from Ozuna, Gordon, and others is better than starting from scratch like were an expansion team. (And Jeters used the word expansion in interviews BTW, I believe recently in a Hot Stove Report).

 

 

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You build a farm system to compete at the major league level. If you have three holes in your major league lineup, whatever you have is irrelevant.

 

This is completely false. If you have 3 holes in your MLB lineup what you have in the minors is 2000% relevant because that's how you most easily fill those holes. 

 

 

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This is a bit of an exaggeration IMO. Sandy is Urena at worst. He should develop into a nice #3 starter as he learns how to pitch. 

 

I feel fairly confident in saying Guzman should at WORST be a serviceable back in bullpen piece 

 

Not a fan of Gallen and Devers is a wait and see. Sierra is irrelevant to me 

 

Maybe that comes true. Quite possible. But that's still not good enough for Ozuna alone, let alone Ozuna and Stanton.

 

 

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Maybe that comes true. Quite possible. But that's still not good enough for Ozuna alone, let alone Ozuna and Stanton.

 

Oh I 100% agree. But keep in mind, it’s those prospects + 250 mill off the books. That’s significant. 

 

Moreso addressing your original comment that this crop might not be anything. I would’ve taken literally any prospect outside of Sierra and Gallen does zero for me, but it’s still hyperbole. That’s all

 

 

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How good do you think Ozuna really is? I didn't see him light St Louis on fire. 

 

He performed pretty in line with his career numbers last year. Started off slow if I remember correctly but he still ended with a 2.7 WAR. He has the potential to be an all star any given year, and considering we traded him with 2 years of control, a potential #3 starter and a reliever isn't good enough return once you discount for uncertainty.

 

 

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This is completely false. If you have 3 holes in your MLB lineup what you have in the minors is 2000% relevant because that's how you most easily fill those holes. 

 

Those prospects in the minors can fizzle out and become "Has Beens and Never Weres".

 

The prospect farm is irrelevant in that if you have a MLB All star patroling a position, you have time to develop beneath them.

We traded vets and good players for the hope that we'll get another in return.

 

We CREATED three holes to fill, and the farm system wouldn't have mattered as much to those positions if we had those three mentioned players to fill them.

 

 

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Those prospects in the minors can fizzle out and become "Has Beens and Never Weres".

 

The prospect farm is irrelevant in that if you have a MLB All star patroling a position, you have time to develop beneath them.

We traded vets and good players for the hope that we'll get another in return.

 

We CREATED three holes to fill, and the farm system wouldn't have mattered as much to those positions if we had those three mentioned players to fill them.

 

We created 3 holes on the roster NOW, to gain assets for the future (both prospects and payroll). 

 

We weren’t going to compete in the lifespan of those 3 players. The farm system was barren and there were no practical answer to the issues we had. 

 

This is really simple stuff. 

 

 

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He performed pretty in line with his career numbers last year. Started off slow if I remember correctly but he still ended with a 2.7 WAR. He has the potential to be an all star any given year, and considering we traded him with 2 years of control, a potential #3 starter and a reliever isn't good enough return once you discount for uncertainty.

 

Post Of The Week nominee

 

 

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He performed pretty in line with his career numbers last year. Started off slow if I remember correctly but he still ended with a 2.7 WAR. He has the potential to be an all star any given year, and considering we traded him with 2 years of control, a potential #3 starter and a reliever isn't good enough return once you discount for uncertainty.

 

Not sure if understand or agree with this. If we're getting some mid-rotation starter out this trade (usually like 2-3 WAR type pitcher), 3 or 4 years of just that alone would easily out-WAR what the Cards are getting with Ozuna over his 2 seasons.

 

 

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We created 3 holes on the roster NOW, to gain assets for the future (both prospects and payroll). 

 

We weren’t going to compete in the lifespan of those 3 players. The farm system was barren and there were no practical answer to the issues we had. 

 

This is really simple stuff. 

 

It's super simple, Yelich was under control for 5 years and until 2022, and as many here argued Stanton wasn't opting out so he was here until 2029. JT would have been more likely to sign a 5 year deal, so lets say he; would have been here until 2023.

 

We got Brinson, who might not do anything at the MLB level (last year I pray was an abberation). We could have signed Cameron Maybin and gotten the same production for the next 3 years if brinson does the same.

 

Lets look at the Stanton Deal.

 

We got Devers, who scouts predict will be a MLB infielder... is that the criteria... can we call them a MLB player? Donovan Solano is a MLB infielder.  Devers' hasnt even reached AA yet. His career minor league average is .260 or so. You mean to tell me you can't draft a INF in the 23rd Round who has shown the same potential?

 

Jorge Guzman- 4 years in pro ball and has yet to reach AA. He of the 1.54 WHIP in Jupiter. He who was so bad in the Astros farm system they traded him from "Astros Orange" to "Astros Blue".

 

Yeah man, our Farm System is better with those guys. By Golly We needed those guys.

 

What the hell are we doing still paying Starlin Castro?

 

Lets evaluate the Yelich Deal.

 

Brinson is being called a bust. He's still got potential and he is a hell of a Outfielder... not so much a hitter. I'm sure Braxton Lee could have hit what Brinson did in a full season being forced into the lineup. I hope he becomes Christian Yelich or even Cameron Maybin.

 

Isan Diaz played poorly in AAA (200 average) and ended up getting promoted from AA where he lit the league on fire batting .245. We can't sign an international FA who can have the same potential or draft someone?

 

Harrison played well, showed flashes and hit .240 and 19 HR. But then didn't do jack shit in AZFALL. I hope he develops, but he's not a can't miss guy either.

 

THE ONLY player in those two deals who has played well, is Jordan Yamamoto an he just graduated from a throwing league in single A to a pitching league in AA. He's proven to be the one bright spot.

 

We traded a slugger that was already a MVP who hit 59HR in our massive park, a OF who already was well known for being a professional and a gold glove caliber CF and in a few days the BEST catcher in baseball who may give up passed balls but catches basestealers and plays a premium position exceptional.

 

In other words, WTF is the point of trading all those guys- to restock a farm.

 

Our Farm System Still sucks, but still doing everything else we did this year- wed be better off.

 

We probably could have gotten players like Devers, Diaz, Yamamoto, Guzman and Harrison by signing Vets and trading them at the deadline. All it'd cost is money.

 

Hell they still should.

 

 

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It's super simple, Yelich was under control for 5 years and until 2022, and as many here argued Stanton wasn't opting out so he was here until 2029. JT would have been more likely to sign a 5 year deal, so lets say he; would have been here until 2023.

 

We got Brinson, who might not do anything at the MLB level (last year I pray was an abberation). We could have signed Cameron Maybin and gotten the same production for the next 3 years if brinson does the same.

 

Lets look at the Stanton Deal.

 

We got Devers, who scouts predict will be a MLB infielder... is that the criteria... can we call them a MLB player? Donovan Solano is a MLB infielder.  Devers' hasnt even reached AA yet. His career minor league average is .260 or so. You mean to tell me you can't draft a INF in the 23rd Round who has shown the same potential?

 

Jorge Guzman- 4 years in pro ball and has yet to reach AA. He of the 1.54 WHIP in Jupiter. He who was so bad in the Astros farm system they traded him from "Astros Orange" to "Astros Blue".

 

Yeah man, our Farm System is better with those guys. By Golly We needed those guys.

 

What the hell are we doing still paying Starlin Castro?

 

Lets evaluate the Yelich Deal.

 

Brinson is being called a bust. He's still got potential and he is a hell of a Outfielder... not so much a hitter. I'm sure Braxton Lee could have hit what Brinson did in a full season being forced into the lineup. I hope he becomes Christian Yelich or even Cameron Maybin.

 

Isan Diaz played poorly in AAA (200 average) and ended up getting promoted from AA where he lit the league on fire batting .245. We can't sign an international FA who can have the same potential or draft someone?

 

Harrison played well, showed flashes and hit .240 and 19 HR. But then didn't do jack shit in AZFALL. I hope he develops, but he's not a can't miss guy either.

 

THE ONLY player in those two deals who has played well, is Jordan Yamamoto an he just graduated from a throwing league in single A to a pitching league in AA. He's proven to be the one bright spot.

 

We traded a slugger that was already a MVP who hit 59HR in our massive park, a OF who already was well known for being a professional and a gold glove caliber CF and in a few days the BEST catcher in baseball who may give up passed balls but catches basestealers and plays a premium position exceptional.

 

In other words, WTF is the point of trading all those guys- to restock a farm.

 

Our Farm System Still sucks, but still doing everything else we did this year- wed be better off.

 

We probably could have gotten players like Devers, Diaz, Yamamoto, Guzman and Harrison by signing Vets and trading them at the deadline. All it'd cost is money.

 

Hell they still should.

 

Devers is a FV45 prospect, you're not getting that in the 20th+ round. That is a twice in a decade draft pick luck.

 

Stanton would have opted out., and destroyed the team's payroll in 5-6 years if he didn't.

 

Guzman is being worked as a starter to get innings, and is presumably ending in the bullpen. I don't think a small sample size WHIP tells us who he is. Let him throw, and let the bullpen conversion happen in 2020 (or earlier) if it's clear it's a failed experiment. (I find that likely, which is OK. A good reliever is a fine result.)

 

Castro is fine. In fact, I think they should maybe extend him for a 4/$50 type of deal starting this year, so I'm not sure where your head is with him. Check out his BB/Hard Hit rate improvements. He may be a buy low right now entering his middle prime years.

 

You're only making one point here - they whiffed on the Yelich trade. They did horribly, even if Brinson/Monte/Diaz work out (you're also selling Diaz particularly low by the way, FG just said they think he's a probable high floor 2+ WAR starter). We can criticize the living hell out of the Yelich deal, but everything past that wasn't an objectively bad move. Gordon wasn't producing what his salary was paying, and it looks like they hit gold with Neidert. Ozuna was not nearly as valuable as everyone thought. Yea, Alcantara, Sierra, and Gallen are disappointing thus far, it happens. Trades don't work out, but the idea of moving Ozuna wasn't the problem. Stanton getting hurt would have practically ended the franchise if he opted in as a loss. Look at how radical Chen/Prado is impacting the team?

 

How about this in 2021:

 

C - ______, ______

1B - _______, Cooper

2B - Diaz

SS - _______, Riddle

3B - Anderson

LF - ________

CF - VVM, Brinson (let's assume he becomes Michael Taylor and Monte fails)

RF - ________

 

SP - ______, _______, Urena, Neidert, Pablo/Gallen/Yamamoto

RHP - Alcantara, Guzman, E. Cabrera, Richards, Holloway (assume all the top rated RHP arms turn into relievers)

LHP - _______, Ca. Smith, Quijada

(Dead Money - Chen)

 

That's $42 million dollars in 2021, and probably about 20 WAR.

 

Add to this trade returns for Realmuto, Steckenrider, Conley, Castro, Straily, Rojas, Wittgren, etc. You're adding 4-6 more guys to the above, all club controlled, and that's probably moving this to $45 million/30 WAR territory (you're going to get some good guys for those first 3 in particular, of course they could bomb like the Yelich guys, but chances are you don't whiff that big twice). You're back to a .500 ballclub.

 

Now add $40-50 million in payroll on 2-3 major free agents. Cite Wolverine budgets. 

 

AND THEN, since your entire team is club controlled for 3+ years, pick 4-5 guys in the minors to trade from this: 2018 draft class (Scott, Osiris, Banfield, Pompey), 2019 Draft class (# 4 overall, two additional early 2nd rounders), 2020 Draft class (likely another top 5 pick and early second rounder), multiple former first rounders (Garret, Rogers), Devers, international free agents (as they are spending again), and anyone else who wants to break out (Miller, Nelson, Dunand, Torres, etc.). The Marlins can do exactly what the Brewers did - trade 3-4 guys and go out and get a Yelich, or Segura, or Andujar, or a Realmuto, or a Kluber, or a Paxton, etc., and really put that cherry on top of the next good Marlins team. Their prospect capital is probably enormous here with the early picks coming.

 

Criticize the Yelich deal A LOT. Putting a 4 WAR Brinson/Monte on top of that team would radically help. But past that, I'm not sure how this is a bad plan in theory.

 

The team sucked. An immediate turnaround wasn't to be expected, even if the Marlins had a good half dozen assets at the MLB level.

 

 

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I had zero problem with getting rid of Gordon or Ozuna, which was the right move, even if the guys we got haven't been fantastic thus far.  The Stanton deal, while I understood completely from a financial perspective, wasn't fun - he was the franchise player, and he's gone, but again, I understood that.  The Yelich deal is where things went off the rails - they took a deal to take a deal rather than holding out for a great offer like they've been doing with Realmuto.

 

But there's not much that can be done about that now, all we can do is look forward with what we have.

 

 

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