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Dominik

Can the marlins turn the rebuild into a top5 farm?

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The marlins are rebuilding and people need to accept that. Now the only thing that makes sense is a total tear down.

What they already have. The system already has improved. They have 5 or 6 grade 50 prospects. 50 prospects project as average regular mlb players and usually the best 50s are lower level (75-100) top 100 prospects. 

They also have some depth of 45s (future mlb bench players) until rank 12-13 or so.

The downside is that like more than half of those 50s are more fringy 50s with some question marks and only one or two are top100s.

What they need now is more top100s and specifically grade 55+ prospects.

 

A grade 60 prospect is basically projected for 3 war in their prime (like realmuto) while 65s are all stars (like yelich caliber) and 70 are superstars (80  is mike trout or kris bryant so basically non existant).

So it is vital that when they trade two grade 60+ players with good contracts in realmuto and yelich that they get top100 guys and specifically  55 and better guys.

 

Some more depth in the 45+  range is also important but biggest thing is that they get a couple 55+ guys into the system because you usually don't get a stanton, yelich, Fernandez or ozuna from 45s and 50s.

 

However depth is also important. You need a core of 6-7 well above average players but even that doesn't work if you don't have the depth, the marlins and white sox couldn't win with excellent cores either. Modern way is depth and teams like the dodgers and cubs have basically 20 average players on the rosters while bad teams have negative war  players. But of course they have the 3-4 star players too.

 

So marlins need to accomplish both, getting back a good core but also stuff back end of the roster with 1-1.5 win players (i.e the 45 prospects) rather than -0.5 win players (35-40 prospects). Not an easy task.

They stil have bour, realmuto and yelich to trade. Get the maximum out of it.worst case would be attaching them to chen and other dead money for mediocre prospects, ideally it even is the other way round and they take a contract or two.

 

Also they need to draft well the next years and improve player development.

 

 

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They probably have a farm in the 20s right now so I don't believe it is actually possible for them to jump into the top 5 with what is left immediately right now.

They can however do things to trend in that direction and get there eventually.

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Not with the players left to trade, but at this point burn this shit to the ground and trade Yelich, Realmuto, Bour, Prado, Castro and Straily and guarantee the #1 pick in the draft for a couple of years and then maybe they can have a top five farm system!

That and maybe stop giving away the international signing money

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12 hours ago, Bald Eagle said:

They probably have a farm in the 20s right now so I don't believe it is actually possible for them to jump into the top 5 with what is left immediately right now.

They can however do things to trend in that direction and get there eventually.

Yea this. Now? Nope. Best case scenario if everything falls right? Yeah of course. Would take a lot of time though. 

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Keep Yelich and sign Realmuto for 5.

Trade Bour, Straily, Castro, Prado, Ziegler, and Tazawa now.

Sign a veteran 1B/3B (Danny Valencia/Mark Reynolds type), veteran 2B/SS/3B type (Alcides Escobar/Jose Reyes, hell maybe keep Prado), and veteran innings eater reclamation project (Jeremy Hellickson/Chris Tillman)

Hit waivers hard the entire year and see if you can pluck the next Cody Ross for $1

Start the year:
Realmuto, Veteran 1B, Veteran 2B, Rojas, Anderson, Dietrich, Yelich, Cooper/VanSlyke
B-Cooper/Van Slyke, Riddle, Telis/Wallach battle winner, camp battle last bench spot w/ whoever
Urena, Conley, Veteran Innings Eater, D. Peters, C.Smith/Nicolino/Despaigne (Sit Chen, let him fully recover)
Pen- Barraclough, Steckenrider, Garcia, Wittgren, Smith/Nicolino, and camp battle the rest, probably O'Grady, E. Hernandez, Despaigne/Jumbo/Guerra. Doesn't matter who

Assuming he is playing well, call up Sierra in mid may when his service time rolls over and they get his extra year of control

July, trade Barraclough, Dietrich, Urena, Conley, Rojas, and any other veteran free agent signing you can move for BPA

Call up the farm in August (Alcantara, Gallen, Brigham, B. Lee, whoever else is ready from what they have and the above trades, etc.)

See what you have at the end of the year and how all the young pitchers developed. If things look bleek, trade Yelich and Realmuto and see ya in 2023.

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No, they somehow managed to get rid of Gordon, Stanton, and Ozuna without getting a single Top 100 prospect in return. Even if they got a few for Realmuto/Yelich (who I doubt they trade) they would still be middle of the road. Right now they are in the bottom third.

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