Austin Brice designated for assignment (Warning: Thread has nothing to do with Brice)

[SilverBullet 2,273]

That's what made the least sense - it seemed like they rushed to do a trade to do a trade. And while they may have taken the best deal available, that doesn't mean they had to take it. If he wasn't under control like Ozuna, you could've been ok with it, but he was signed already to a crazy team friendly deal - only a vast overpay should have been accepted.

I feel like the Realmuto trade showed what the front office learned from the mistakes of the Yelich trade.

[Photo-Realistic Billy 321]

Who really knows, but all I know on a pure baseball level is, they made a bad trade at the time of trade and you never do that. It doesn't matter as it's done, but we can hope the Brewers guys work out.

Nobody at the time of the trade said. The Marlins got a haul of prospects, which was a fair price for a high-ceiling guy who hadn't put it all together yet.

 

Here's from the FG writeup:

We expected that the package would be significant given Yelich’s talent and a contract that will pay him around $10 million a year for the next five seasons. It is big with Brinson as the headliner. The young outfielder just appeared 18th on Baseball America’s recently released top-100 list, while Eric Lohenhagen placed a 60 future-value grade on Brinson, making him one of the best prospects in baseball.

 

The deal isn’t just Brinson and filler, either. Longenhagen listed Monte Harrison as the third-best prospect in the Brewers system, with Isan Diaz close behind at the six spot. All three profile as average regulars at least. Yamamoto is more of a project, but he has an above-average curveball.

Trades must be assessed based on the information available at the time. It is revisionist and frankly incorrect to paint the trade as a steal at the time.

[SonOfJack 2,241]

Poor Austin Brice, his thread turned into a Yelich thread. He can't even have his moment.

[SilverBullet 2,273]

Poor Austin Brice, his thread turned into a Yelich thread. He can't even have his moment.

Yelich is gonna have to apologize to Brice.

[SilverBullet 2,273]

Trades must be assessed based on the information available at the time. It is revisionist and frankly incorrect to paint the trade as a steal at the time.

Another point that kills me... people look back and think we knew that we traded away the 2018 NL MVP but he hadn't done that yet. At the time of the deal Yelich had potential and was definitely great but he was absolutely not a star or any bit of an MVP yet. Gotta remember how many teams didn't even want him too, which is why the Brewers offer seemed so relatively good at the time. The Marlins in no way could have called teams and said "this guy is the next NL MVP so you need to give us a return worthy of that."

[MarlinsLou 147]

Nobody at the time of the trade said. The Marlins got a haul of prospects, which was a fair price for a high-ceiling guy who hadn't put it all together yet.

 

Here's from the FG writeup:

 

Trades must be assessed based on the information available at the time. It is revisionist and frankly incorrect to paint the trade as a steal at the time.

Nope. Here's what happened.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/ - Prospect valuation in expected dollars; and

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/putting-a-dollar-value-on-prospects-outside-the-top-100/

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-29-prospects-miami-marlins/ - Preseason rankings of Brewers kids in 2018

 

FV60 Brinson - $55 million

FV50 - Isan and Monte - $56 million ($28 million each)

FV40 - Yamamoto - $1 million

=Projected surplus value - $107 million

 

Yelich - 4.1 WAR average his age 22-25 year seasons (before his prime). This is 2014-2017. Surplus value of free agents at the time, we'll call it $8 million (over $9 now). This is $131 million in value. To note, Fangraphs more eloquently had him creating $129.6 million in value. Subtracting some nominal contract costs as a club controlled player, he was over a $120+ million asset for the Marlins. You have to base his future performance off this value.

 

So let's assume Yelich - in his age 26-30 year old seasons (facepalm right there) - would not improve from his past performance. We're talking 5 years of performance - this creates $164 million in value. Subtract his contract ($58.25), and Yelich is worth = $105 million as is. If you assume he'd be better (duh), even a casual analysis can get you closer to $150. We all knew he was going to grow into power. He's closer to $150 versus $105 by any measure of analysis. What's the exact number? I don't know, but somewhere $125-135 is the lower end.

 

So now we're back at the Brewers kids. Did some wrong math, so editing to $107. It's not as bad as I remember, but I suppose my historical view is view Yelich as getting better. You're not betting anything on Yelich's upside here. I think that's a major problem for a guy not having grown into his power.

 

Marlins got smoked from day 1. I reject your alternative facts regarding a revisionist history. I said this day 1, and then the trade got worse. See below.

[MarlinsLou 147]

They failed not getting Hiura to upgrade Monte or Isan (+$18 million), or Burnes outright added ($21). That's my position.

 

Need to correct math above*

 

Math is hard when you're furious someone is trying to defend trading Yelich with 5 years of control**

[MarlinsLou 147]

Thanks for this rabbit hole of despair.

 

Yelich was a 5 WAR player his preceding two years. You can do the whole reasonable valuation based on 2 years of performance and him to an easy $150+ million in surplus.

 

They needed BOTH Hiura over Isan and Burnes. THEN this would have made sense.

 

It's as bad as I thought when starting. They are dumb.

 

And then Yelich got better.

[Das Texan 123]

The Yelich trade was not about saving money, it was about moving someone that they thought would be a clubhouse problem. Whether we agree with it or not, that's what it was.

They thought that because they didn’t bother to fucking communicate any plan with Yelich. That’s on this ownership group.

Same thing happened with Realmuto.

 

you approach them say look. You are our cornerstone. We are building around you and layout the plan.

 

nowhere have I read thar actually happened.

 

so yes. It was about saving money under the guise of clubhouse issues.

[Das Texan 123]

Of course you don't go into trades to "not win" them but, as a fan who in theory wants my team to win the World Series every single season, I'll take a World Series win over winning a comparison of WAR stats.

 

Try telling Marlins fans in 2003 that the Marlins made a bad trade getting Urbina for Gonzalez.

 

you win world series’ with stars.

 

Yelich = Star.

 

the other 4 = not stars. Complimentary pieces you’d hope (and they better be hoping big on Harrison), but none can help lead your team to a title.

 

defending the trade as you got what you thought were good pieces is indefensible.

 

you had a sure thing that you should have known was entering his prime Abd was on a cheap deal.

 

remind me how the prospect haul for Miguel Cabrera worked out again?

 

prospects are just hopes and dreams until they do something.

 

marlins have done god fucking awful from this trade. It would take nothing short of a miracle at this point for the trade to not be a disaster.

 

a few 2 war seasons won’t even begin to sniff non disaster status.

[SilverBullet 2,273]

Didn't realize you need a team of 25 stars to win a championship.

[Das Texan 123]

It's been said there weren't really that many teams pursuing Yelich at the time though and the Brewers offer might have really been the best of the bunch. So it seems more like the Marlins didn't realize how much more they could get for Yelich and thus rushed into the best return at the moment instead of holding out for more, right?

 

Compare it to the Realmuto deal where many teams made offers but the Marlins held their ground until the Phillies upped the return at the last moment.

 

Because nobody took the marlins as seriously offering him up.

 

cardinals would have offered up much more for yelich than ozuna. But marlins weren’t trading Yelich. It was only after Yelich got pissed that they looked to move him and the off-season was mostly over.

 

That’s entirely the Marlins fault the market wasn’t bigger.

 

marlins should of had 25 teams in on Yelich.

[Das Texan 123]

Didn't realize you need a team of 25 stars to win a championship.

 

you don’t. But you need a few stars.

 

who exactly would be considered a bonafide Star on this team.

 

go.

[Das Texan 123]

Another point that kills me... people look back and think we knew that we traded away the 2018 NL MVP but he hadn't done that yet. At the time of the deal Yelich had potential and was definitely great but he was absolutely not a star or any bit of an MVP yet. Gotta remember how many teams didn't even want him too, which is why the Brewers offer seemed so relatively good at the time. The Marlins in no way could have called teams and said "this guy is the next NL MVP so you need to give us a return worthy of that."

 

If the Brewers out scouted the marlins on Yelich And his career trajectory then the Marlins problems are far far bigger than anyone ever imagined.

 

yelich was entering his prime and was a budding bonafide star.

[Das Texan 123]

Thanks for this rabbit hole of despair.

 

Yelich was a 5 WAR player his preceding two years. You can do the whole reasonable valuation based on 2 years of performance and him to an easy $150+ million in surplus.

 

They needed BOTH Hiura over Isan and Burnes. THEN this would have made sense.

 

It's as bad as I thought when starting. They are dumb.

 

And then Yelich got better.

 

i hate agreeing with you. So so so much.

 

marlins not getting the top prospects on the brewer system was criminal.

 

At least with Cabrera they got the cream of the crop (I think)

[SilverBullet 2,273]

you don’t. But you need a few stars.

 

who exactly would be considered a bonafide Star on this team.

 

go.

Changing the conversation again?

 

You only need a few stars on a championship team... if some of the guys we got back for Yelich become role players on a championship team with other stars leading the way then at least we got something good from that trade.

 

You are making it sound like we needed to get 4 superstars back for Yelich to make that trade any good and that is total BS.

 

For the record, I'm not the biggest fan of the Yelich trade so I'm not defending it blindly. I'm just put off by some of the ways people here analyze trades.

[Das Texan 123]

Changing the conversation again?

 

You only need a few stars on a championship team... if some of the guys we got back for Yelich become role players on a championship team with other stars leading the way then at least we got something good from that trade.

 

You are making it sound like we needed to get 4 superstars back for Yelich to make that trade any good and that is total BS.

 

For the record, I'm not the biggest fan of the Yelich trade so I'm not defending it blindly. I'm just put off by some of the ways people here analyze trades.

 

yelich = star

 

what star is on the marlins.

 

The marlins moving yelich made zero sense when it happened and was 100% their own making.

[MarlinsLou 147]

i hate agreeing with you. So so so much.

 

marlins not getting the top prospects on the brewer system was criminal.

 

At least with Cabrera they got the cream of the crop (I think)

Well they did get the top prospect (Brinson), but they failed in not getting Hiura instead of Isan and Yamamoto upgraded to Burnes/Woodruff.

 

They blew it.

 

They got the cream of the crop for Cabrera - that trade actually made sense on a value analysis. Maybin and Miller just bombed.

 

This one though stunk from day 1 and is a full blown dumpster fire now

 

Why do you hate agreeing me! What do I do despite get irrational angry at procedural baseball moves!

[Das Texan 123]

The reality is you don’t fucking trade yelich in the first place. That’s the fucking point that’s being made.

 

Abd if you are trading him you better sure as fuck get Best the best the other team has to fucking offer I. Their system or tell them other team to get bent.

 

why do you think Lindor is not a Dodger yet?

[Das Texan 123]

Well they did get the top prospect (Brinson), but they failed in not getting Hiura instead of Isan and Yamamoto upgraded to Burnes/Woodruff.

 

They blew it.

 

They got the cream of the crop for Cabrera - that trade actually made sense on a value analysis. Maybin and Miller just bombed.

 

This one though stunk from day 1 and is a full blown dumpster fire now

 

Why do you hate agreeing me! What do I do despite get irrational angry at procedural baseball moves!

 

i hate agreeing with you because we’ve been on the opposite side way too many times. ??

[Das Texan 123]

I also am always skeptical of a top prospect that moves more than once...

[SilverBullet 2,273]

what star is on the marlins.

Changing the conversation again from how to analyze the Yelich trade to what star is on the Marlins.

[SonOfJack 2,241]

Changing the conversation again from how to analyze the Yelich trade to what star is on the Marlins.

I am waiting to see how the convo turns back to being about Brice

[SilverBullet 2,273]

The reality is you don’t fucking trade yelich in the first place. That’s the fucking point that’s being made.

 

Abd if you are trading him you better sure as fuck get Best the best the other team has to fucking offer I. Their system or tell them other team to get bent.

 

why do you think Lindor is not a Dodger yet?

I am waiting to see how the convo turns back to being about Brice

Who?

[Das Texan 123]

Changing the conversation again from how to analyze the Yelich trade to what star is on the Marlins.

 

I told you...

 

dont fucking trade him in the first place.

 

you are the one trying to justify based on role players helping you win a title