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Austin Brice designated for assignment (Warning: Thread has nothing to do with Brice)


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I told you...

 

dont fucking trade him in the first place.

 

you are the one trying to justify based on role players helping you win a title

 

Dude, we get it. You've said the same thing every post.

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The reality is you don’t fucking trade yelich in the first place. That’s the fucking point that’s being made.

 

Abd if you are trading him you better sure as fuck get Best the best the other team has to fucking offer I. Their system or tell them other team to get bent.

I 100% agree with all of this... I guess some proof that I'm not bickering with you for no reason?

 

Yelich didn't have to be traded but if they were gonna do it they should have raided the other team's farm, which I was kinda excited about at the time.

 

In the end I think the Marlins thought they needed to make the trade sooner than they really had to and thus they bit on lesser bait to get the trade out of the way instead of being more patient as they did with Realmuto.

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you are the one trying to justify based on role players helping you win a title

Wrong.

 

I'm not justifying the Yelich trade with that.

 

Someone made a point that trades don't have to be justified by WAR comparisons alone and I gave an example as to how I agree with that specific point.

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I 100% agree with all of this... I guess some proof that I'm not bickering with you for no reason?

 

Yelich didn't have to be traded but if they were gonna do it they should have raided the other team's farm, which I was kinda excited about at the time.

 

In the end I think the Marlins thought they needed to make the trade sooner than they really had to and thus they bit on lesser bait to get the trade out of the way instead of being more patient as they did with Realmuto.

 

because they were fucking idiots.

The reality is you can’t justify this trade and really call it anything but a fucking utter disaster.

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Wrong.

 

I'm not justifying the Yelich trade with that.

 

Someone made a point that trades don't have to be justified by WAR comparisons alone and I gave an example as to how I agree with that specific point.

 

There was no real economic reason (or shouldn’t) have been to move Yelich.

 

they weren’t going to trade him to win a title.

 

they didn’t even get back the best prospects.

 

I don’t know what criteria you should use? you can’t use the one from the Urbana trade. You can’t talk about the totality if return being equal or greater. You can’t even use the I got the best of their system argument.

 

so let’s try to create some other way to justify this clusterfuck

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There was no real economic reason (or shouldn’t) have been to move Yelich.

 

they weren’t going to trade him to win a title.

 

they didn’t even get back the best prospects.

 

I don’t know what criteria you should use? you can’t use the one from the Urbana trade. You can’t talk about the totality if return being equal or greater. You can’t even use the I got the best of their system argument.

 

so let’s try to create some other way to justify this clusterfuck

I wasn't even talking about the Yelich trade when I mentioned the Urbina trade.

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I wasn't even talking about the Yelich trade when I mentioned the Urbina trade.

 

I’m saying those are the criteria that make sense.

 

your criteria is grasping at straws to make it seem like less if a total clusterfuck.

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you win world series’ with stars.

 

Yelich = Star.

 

the other 4 = not stars. Complimentary pieces you’d hope (and they better be hoping big on Harrison), but none can help lead your team to a title.

 

defending the trade as you got what you thought were good pieces is indefensible.

 

you had a sure thing that you should have known was entering his prime Abd was on a cheap deal.

 

remind me how the prospect haul for Miguel Cabrera worked out again?

 

prospects are just hopes and dreams until they do something.

 

marlins have done god fucking awful from this trade. It would take nothing short of a miracle at this point for the trade to not be a disaster.

 

a few 2 war seasons won’t even begin to sniff non disaster status.

Yelich = Star

Stanton = Star

Realmuto = Star

Ozuna = Star

 

Put them together with a bunch other key guys like Dee Gordon, Justin Bour, and most of the season of Jose Fernandez and you get a 79 win team!

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Yelich = Star

Stanton = Star

Realmuto = Star

Ozuna = Star

 

Put them together with a bunch other key guys like Dee Gordon, Justin Bour, and most of the season of Jose Fernandez and you get a 79 win team!

If only that squad featured another starter or two and some type of support system for Fernandez other than let him do whatever the fuck he wants.

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Yelich = Star

Stanton = Star

Realmuto = Star

Ozuna = Star

 

Put them together with a bunch other key guys like Dee Gordon, Justin Bour, and most of the season of Jose Fernandez and you get a 79 win team!

I'm going to quibble and say Ozuna is not a star, but he's still really good. The other 3 - and Fernandez - could easily have been the top 4 players on a championship team, with a strong cast of Ozuna, Paddack, L. Castillo, B. Anderson, etc. behind them.

 

Oh wait.....

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If only that squad featured another starter or two and some type of support system for Fernandez other than let him do whatever the fuck he wants.

That squad scored 655 runs that year. Good for 27th in the majors and 13th in the NL. They needed more than a starter or two.

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So let's assume Yelich - in his age 26-30 year old seasons (facepalm right there) - would not improve from his past performance. We're talking 5 years of performance - this creates $164 million in value. Subtract his contract ($58.25), and Yelich is worth = $105 million as is. If you assume he'd be better (duh), even a casual analysis can get you closer to $150. We all knew he was going to grow into power. He's closer to $150 versus $105 by any measure of analysis. What's the exact number? I don't know, but somewhere $125-135 is the lower end.

Marlins would not have sniffed the playoffs the last 2 seasons even with Yelich. People are hoping for around 70-75 wins this year. Yelich won't make us a playoff team this year

 

Maybe they get there in 2021 or 2022, but considering it will likely take contributions from Monte, Isan, Yamamoto, and/or Brinson to do so, it would cancel out at least some of Yelich's contributions.

 

All the while Yelich here would have contributed to wins that would limit the draft pool and likely cost the team Bleday and limit the prospect value from the 2020 draft.

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Nope. Here's what happened.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/ - Prospect valuation in expected dollars; and

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/putting-a-dollar-value-on-prospects-outside-the-top-100/

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-29-prospects-miami-marlins/ - Preseason rankings of Brewers kids in 2018

 

FV60 Brinson - $55 million

FV50 - Isan and Monte - $56 million ($28 million each)

FV40 - Yamamoto - $1 million

=Projected surplus value - $107 million

 

Yelich - 4.1 WAR average his age 22-25 year seasons (before his prime). This is 2014-2017. Surplus value of free agents at the time, we'll call it $8 million (over $9 now). This is $131 million in value. To note, Fangraphs more eloquently had him creating $129.6 million in value. Subtracting some nominal contract costs as a club controlled player, he was over a $120+ million asset for the Marlins. You have to base his future performance off this value.

 

So let's assume Yelich - in his age 26-30 year old seasons (facepalm right there) - would not improve from his past performance. We're talking 5 years of performance - this creates $164 million in value. Subtract his contract ($58.25), and Yelich is worth = $105 million as is. If you assume he'd be better (duh), even a casual analysis can get you closer to $150. We all knew he was going to grow into power. He's closer to $150 versus $105 by any measure of analysis. What's the exact number? I don't know, but somewhere $125-135 is the lower end.

 

So now we're back at the Brewers kids. Did some wrong math, so editing to $107. It's not as bad as I remember, but I suppose my historical view is view Yelich as getting better. You're not betting anything on Yelich's upside here. I think that's a major problem for a guy not having grown into his power.

Also, this analysis of player value is deeply flawed. The "surplus value" does not generate $105 M in additional revenue. The Marlins could not cash Yelich in for a check worth $109 M. There is no basis other than an averaging of FA WAR values relative to their contracts. The largest AAV ever on a FA contract was Garrett Cole's $36 M. Is anyone projecting that he will finish with a WAR of 4? Is anyone projecting that Rendon or Strasberg are going to finish with a WAR of under 4?

 

The reason why 1 WAR is so expensive on average is because of the players that perform dramatically under expectations that weigh down the WAR outputs. Replacing Yelich's production would not cost $105 M more than his contract value.

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Marlins would not have sniffed the playoffs the last 2 seasons even with Yelich. People are hoping for around 70-75 wins this year. Yelich won't make us a playoff team this year

 

Maybe they get there in 2021 or 2022, but considering it will likely take contributions from Monte, Isan, Yamamoto, and/or Brinson to do so, it would cancel out at least some of Yelich's contributions.

 

All the while Yelich here would have contributed to wins that would limit the draft pool and likely cost the team Bleday and limit the prospect value from the 2020 draft.

Who gives a shit about 2018 and 2019? It was a rebuild? They would have a top 20 player in baseball for a contending window right when the rest of the team starts peaking in 21-22. You don't trade these players under any circumstance.

 

Who cares about having some weaker picks in the draft versus one of the top players in the league - and that's before Yelich exploded? Really?

 

Are you serious right now? Do you see what you are typing?

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Also, this analysis of player value is deeply flawed. The "surplus value" does not generate $105 M in additional revenue. The Marlins could not cash Yelich in for a check worth $109 M. There is no basis other than an averaging of FA WAR values relative to their contracts. The largest AAV ever on a FA contract was Garrett Cole's $36 M. Is anyone projecting that he will finish with a WAR of 4? Is anyone projecting that Rendon or Strasberg are going to finish with a WAR of under 4?

 

The reason why 1 WAR is so expensive on average is because of the players that perform dramatically under expectations that weigh down the WAR outputs. Replacing Yelich's production would not cost $105 M more than his contract value.

We have too monetize production and surplus value to be able to assess it. Is it flawed? Absolutely. Is it the best we got? Yes, but I'll be interested in seeing an alternative way if you want to present something.

 

How about this. You have $58 million to spend (Yelich's contract) and you need to produce 25 WAR - that's what Yelich was going to do.

 

Pick MLB FA contracts this offseason. Also, you need to do this over 5 players max (Yelich's year of control) because we can't nickel and dime by scouring for $1-2 million deals because there is IMMENSE value in getting chunk production out of 1 roster slot like Yelich.

 

I'll also let you "trade" for Villar

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