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SilverBullet

Frisaro doesn't think Marlins will trade Realmuto

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Yeah I don't understand the thinking here. The reaction is as if Tomas Telis all of the sudden busted out this year. JT is doing what most of us expected him to do.

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, DMoney said:

JT is not 34. He’s 27. 

If we are good in four years (which should be the expectation), he will be 31. I can remember a pretty good Marlins team led by a 31-year-old catcher. 

in 4 years, he'll also be a free agent. There's no guarantee that we sign him to an extension - and even if we do, it most likely won't be very long. He'll be 31 when he hits FA. Not a lot of incentive for him to delay free agency any longer.

I guess we'll see.

According to Fangraph's WAR calculations, JT is on pace for a 5+ WAR season after putting in two seasons where he was at 3.5 and 3.6 WAR.

He's OPSing about .900 this year, and OPS'd .771 and .783 the year before - which seems to be mostly because his ISO has jumped 60 points this season. His BABIP is sitting at about the midpoint of his last two seasons.

It could be natural progression, but I'm betting that he's overperforming right now. He's a good catcher, but he's probably not this good going forward. And 4 years is a long time. I would rather stock up on talent now than hope that in 4 years our aging catcher can sustain his performance for multiple years... and that's if we can even buy out a few free agency years.

I'm not saying he absolutely needs to be traded or that he's not a good catcher, but I don't think it makes sense to keep him given all of the uncertainty around his future performance and contract situation. I would rather deal with the uncertainty of 1 elite prospect + 1 other high quality prospect that we can keep for 6+ years. The Nationals need to just pull the trigger and recognize that this is their shot.

Edited by Entendu (see edit history)

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6 minutes ago, Entendu said:

I don't think it makes sense to keep him given all of the uncertainty around his future performance

The uncertainty is in your head. If you're uncertain about his future performance, you should be uncertain about any player in baseball.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, SonOfJack said:

The uncertainty is in your head. If you're uncertain about his future performance, you should be uncertain about any player in baseball.

The uncertainty is on paper.

I get that we like him, but we can't be blind to the fact that there's a lot going against him being a cornerstone of a competitive Marlins team in 4 years.

Forget performance for a second. What incentive does an arbitration eligible catcher who will already be hitting free agency at 30 have to sign a deal that buys out multiple free agency years? Given that he'll get one good payday in his career, why would he want to delay until age 32-34, where he'll be at the tail end of his prime? If he thinks he's as good as you think he is, he definitely won't want to negotiate an extension.

Edited by Entendu
JT will hit FA at age 30 (see edit history)

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11 hours ago, Entendu said:

The uncertainty is on paper.

I get that we like him, but we can't be blind to the fact that there's a lot going against him being a cornerstone of a competitive Marlins team in 4 years.

Forget performance for a second. What incentive does an arbitration eligible catcher who will already be hitting free agency at 30 have to sign a deal that buys out multiple free agency years? Given that he'll get one good payday in his career, why would he want to delay until age 32-34, where he'll be at the tail end of his prime? If he thinks he's as good as you think he is, he definitely won't want to negotiate an extension.

I disagree with your argument.  J T has been getting better every year and it seems to be his natural progression.  Also, an extension can be for as many years as JT and the Marlins negotiate.  They can extend him until he's 34 or 35 if they wish. 

Don't forget that JT didnt start catching until he was in pro ball.  He will probably age well since he will have less wear and tear than other catchers his age.  He's also very athletic for his position which also points to him aging well. He's not some lumbering fat guy back there. 

Yadier and Pose have aged well and there's no reason to think that J T won't do the same. At this point you only trade him if you can't extend him.

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This guy is smart and a fierce competitor. He will only get better, it's in his nature. The kind of player you want on your side. 

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The argument made for trading Realmuto (uncertainty) could be applied to any player.  It is uncertain that Babe Ruth will continue his 1927 pace - better trade him and get multiple prospects.  Or, how about, Brian Anderson's 2018 campaign thus far is far better than what his minor league performance would indicate (it is) so we'd better trade him too.  At some point, you have to make a bet on certain players and JT seems to be the one non-rookie on the roster that it makes sense to make a long term bet on.

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JT has always been a tremendous athlete, he was called the best athlete in our system at one point. He has lived up to or even exceeded the hype and he only keeps getting better. Offer him a long term deal and hope he takes it. If he absolutely refuses to even talk, then trade him but I'm thinking he'll listen. He's not a FA this off-season and a lot of guaranteed money can make a guy want to stick around.

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19 minutes ago, SonOfJack said:

JT has always been a tremendous athlete, he was called the best athlete in our system at one point. He has lived up to or even exceeded the hype and he only keeps getting better. Offer him a long term deal and hope he takes it. If he absolutely refuses to even talk, then trade him but I'm thinking he'll listen. He's not a FA this off-season and a lot of guaranteed money can make a guy want to stick around.

wow, we finally agree on something.

If you offer enough $$ you can get just about anyone to stay or sign with you.  The "job" is essentially the same no matter where you go so that's why players tend to go where the most money is offered, especially during their primes.  You usually only get that one giant paycheck so yep, offer him longterm financial security and there's a 98% chance he'll sign.

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1 hour ago, SonOfJack said:

JT has always been a tremendous athlete, he was called the best athlete in our system at one point. He has lived up to or even exceeded the hype and he only keeps getting better. Offer him a long term deal and hope he takes it. If he absolutely refuses to even talk, then trade him but I'm thinking he'll listen. He's not a FA this off-season and a lot of guaranteed money can make a guy want to stick around.

It's just what I want to say,guaranteed money means "injury risk" free to players.

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