2020 Post-Season Thread

[TaiwanMarlins]

Poor Dodgers fans, welcome to the 305. It's possible the Fish would win the WS in advance of the Dodgers …

[rmc523]

10 hours ago, jeffreysfishfry said:

Maybe it was Yelich IDK.  I thought it could have been either one or maybe none at all at this point. 

Didn't we try to work out a deal with JT but he refused?  If so, do you know if the offer was as competitive as the Phillies?  I thought I heard rumors that the  Marlins tried negotiating but it didn't materialize.  

As far as I understood, we did make an offer to him, but I remember hearing it was a sort of lowball offer.

2 hours ago, FishFan95 said:

Who is the best catcher in baseball then? JT stumbled at the end of the year, but that was based on a 25 game span. That is the definition of small sample sizes. And regardless of his offense, he is regarded as a fantastic defensive catcher.

Attendance was better in 2004 and 2005 even though the team was better in 2003. That's because the team was good out of nowhere rather than people expecting it from the outset. People showed up in 2012 rather than the following years with all of that star power because there was an expectation that the team would be good. Remember how Stanton said that we would be out of it by May every year. That was the general feeling in the area. It is only the revisionists who look back at the 2016-17 teams and say that they were good.

Adding a bit of star power at the most important position in the field to a team that is good enough to content is not going to make the team bad. And it will certainly boost enthusiasm in South Florida. It also is not going to keep the team from signing other players considering they have no other commitments. Besides, he is not going to get a decade long commitment. The days of contracts that long to players at or above 30 is over, especially for a catcher. Around 6 / $138-150 M will do it.

2012 attendance was also aided by the new ballpark.  I think they could've done nothing player signing-wise, and still would've had a huge attendance bump.

[SilverBullet]

13 hours ago, CYmarlins said:

100% the one thing I can really commend this new regime and their mindset has been having a plan and sticking to it. Marte and Kintzler seem like absolute locks to have their options picked up

Veteran pitcher would be very nice to have in the rotation to be that 3/4 guy that was mentioned previously.

Many of the rookies that made their debuts this season will find themselves back in the minors to start the season, the exception might be Jazz but that is why you have someone like Berti.

Re-sign Mike Hill to an extension and I look forward to the winter meetings.

This is the crazy thing about the 2020 Marlins that a lot of people don't seem to realize. This postseason berth was an unexpected surprise and meanwhile the "real" sustainable winner plan is still unfolding, which means we really haven't even stumbled upon the final product/the sustainable winner yet. The best "should" be yet to come for this team.

[SilverBullet]

7 hours ago, rmc523 said:

As far as I understood, we did make an offer to him, but I remember hearing it was a sort of lowball offer.

2012 attendance was also aided by the new ballpark.  I think they could've done nothing player signing-wise, and still would've had a huge attendance bump.

Yep. The winter spending spree was icing on the cake to make people think the cake was gonna taste good but the cake itself was the ballpark. Ultimately they bought some moldy expired icing.

Question, albeit off topic... had the 2012 team stuck together could they have been any good in 2013 or 2014? I'd assume we got a new manager anyways but if the players stayed the same, I guess maybe outside of Heath Bell who wouldn't have been retained.

[Michael]

59 minutes ago, SilverBullet said:

Yep. The winter spending spree was icing on the cake to make people think the cake was gonna taste good but the cake itself was the ballpark. Ultimately they bought some moldy expired icing.

Question, albeit off topic... had the 2012 team stuck together could they have been any good in 2013 or 2014? I'd assume we got a new manager anyways but if the players stayed the same, I guess maybe outside of Heath Bell who wouldn't have been retained.

Honestly, I think Stanton suddenly deciding that he absolutely needed that surgery immediately in July rather than the off-season was the collapsing point of that team. He was hitting well that year, and we probably win a few more games that month, don't trade for Carlos Lee, and then, who knows after that? Team probably does stay together, gels, things get figured out better.

It is what it is. 🤷‍♂️

[SilverBullet]

8 minutes ago, Michael said:

Honestly, I think Stanton suddenly deciding that he absolutely needed that surgery immediately in July rather than the off-season was the collapsing point of that team. He was hitting well that year, and we probably win a few more games that month, don't trade for Carlos Lee, and then, who knows after that? Team probably does stay together, gels, things get figured out better.

It is what it is. 🤷‍♂️

True. I mean there were serious issues with Ozzie's ability to lead, Heath Bell was a total disaster, and overall there was a lack of chemistry and clubhouse cohesion but you wonder if a little hot streak might have changed how that team ended up. Then again, I once read Loria said that he knew 2 weeks into the season that that team wasn't gonna work and I think that's a heck of an exaggeration but it makes me think he was always dead set on shedding payroll when he could so, kinda like the 97 team, the 2012 Marlins never had a chance to stick together. Blowing them up was in the owner's mind from way earlier than the fans and players realized is what I'm saying. No commitment to stick to those teams so no chance.

[Photo-Realistic Billy]

11 hours ago, rmc523 said:

As far as I understood, we did make an offer to him, but I remember hearing it was a sort of lowball offer.

I couldn't find it, but someone on Twitter said (late in the season) that the offer Realmuto got from the Phillies was lower than what the Marlins offered. And at the time, folks criticized the Marlins (what's new?) for trying to low-ball Realmuto.

I think it all just feeds fuel to the argument of why Realmuto wants to be a FA. There's really been no major FA catcher since Brian McCann years ago, and even he wasn't as accomplished or promising as Realmuto is right now. Realmuto keeps getting offers based on precedent, but he wants to set a new precedent.

[FishFan95]

Making win now moves will be the difference in the team being like the Pirates/Royals window or being like the Cubs/Astros window. The Marlins weakest and thinnest position right now has to be catcher. Can anyone think of a championship team the last 20 years where that has been the case? You look at the '97 team and the '03 team and they both had a terrific catcher both at the defensive end and in handling the pitching staff. Charles Johnson even had one of his better years offensively. Pudge was solid across the board. An upgrade behind the dish has to be the team's top priority this offseason. The only two options on the FA market I can think of would be JT or James McCann.

[GuitarPik]

Hell yea. Let’s go Dodgers!

[GuitarPik]

Funny how we made Kyle Wright look like a CY Young winner. This is what a real offense can do. 

[1.618]

20 hours ago, FishFan95 said:

Who is the best catcher in baseball then? JT stumbled at the end of the year, but that was based on a 25 game span. That is the definition of small sample sizes. And regardless of his offense, he is regarded as a fantastic defensive catcher.

Attendance was better in 2004 and 2005 even though the team was better in 2003. That's because the team was good out of nowhere rather than people expecting it from the outset. People showed up in 2012 rather than the following years with all of that star power because there was an expectation that the team would be good. Remember how Stanton said that we would be out of it by May every year. That was the general feeling in the area. It is only the revisionists who look back at the 2016-17 teams and say that they were good.

Adding a bit of star power at the most important position in the field to a team that is good enough to content is not going to make the team bad. And it will certainly boost enthusiasm in South Florida. It also is not going to keep the team from signing other players considering they have no other commitments. Besides, he is not going to get a decade long commitment. The days of contracts that long to players at or above 30 is over, especially for a catcher. Around 6 / $138-150 M will do it.

Earlier you stated that 1997 was one of the biggest years in terms of attendance based on personal, hinting that JT could make a difference in the same sense.

 I simple stated that 1993, 94 and 2012 had just as much attendance and more so, because 93 was an expansion year and 2012 was a new location. 

I also didn't bring up 2003 because, like you said, they emerged so fast. But the 2004, 2005 attendance was decent but it coincides from winning a WS IMO. 

Before 1997 we never had a fire sale and it was the first time we became buyers, so it was a new look, a new start.  I remember the national attention before the season started. That team could have been one of the greatest WS teams on paper.  The comparison of 1997 to JT is not the same, and that is my point. 

I already said that JT would help this team win, but I made it clear to how it could hurt this team down the road. 

JT may be the best catcher in baseball but not in terms of value.  That's my opinion.

 

Edited October 14, 2020 by jeffreysfishfry

[1.618]

17 hours ago, rmc523 said:

As far as I understood, we did make an offer to him, but I remember hearing it was a sort of lowball offer.

2012 attendance was also aided by the new ballpark.  I think they could've done nothing player signing-wise, and still would've had a huge attendance bump.

I wasn't sure if it was a low ball offer or not, so thanks. I'm not trying to conjure up negativity on purpose.  He's a big risk, so I'm probably over criticizing is all.

2012 is my point that, attendance was high, primarily due to the new location. 

 

 

[TaiwanMarlins]

https://www.mlb.com/marlins/news/marlins-2021-catcher-options

" I just don’t see Miami making a free-agent play for Realmuto or even James McCann, who is expected to have a big market."

If that's really the case, I would be very unhappy !!!

[marlins_09]

5 hours ago, FishFan95 said:

Making win now moves will be the difference in the team being like the Pirates/Royals window or being like the Cubs/Astros window. The Marlins weakest and thinnest position right now has to be catcher. Can anyone think of a championship team the last 20 years where that has been the case? You look at the '97 team and the '03 team and they both had a terrific catcher both at the defensive end and in handling the pitching staff. Charles Johnson even had one of his better years offensively. Pudge was solid across the board. An upgrade behind the dish has to be the team's top priority this offseason. The only two options on the FA market I can think of would be JT or James McCann.

 

3 hours ago, taiwanmarlin said:

https://www.mlb.com/marlins/news/marlins-2021-catcher-options

" I just don’t see Miami making a free-agent play for Realmuto or even James McCann, who is expected to have a big market."

If that's really the case, I would be very unhappy !!!

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, don’t limit options at positions of need to whose available in free agency. This FO has already shown the willingness to make trades, and be creative in terms of player acquisition. Part of the reason you want “layers of talent” is so that you can trade for controllable big leaguers - Starling Marte. 
 

Think Christian Vasquez, Carson Kelly, Salvy Perez, heck they might even be able to snag Keibert Ruiz from LAD. 
 

A major benefit to having a strong system is having the freedom to go after guys like this without relying on whose available this cycle to fill out your roster. 

Edited October 15, 2020 by marlins_09

[TaiwanMarlins]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/10/latest-on-the-catching-market-realmuto-sanchez.html

"When the automated strike zone comes maybe you can have a DH catch because framing will mean nothing or maybe if we give the catcher an earpiece and can feed him every pitch, game calling will mean nothing. But we are asking catchers to make 150 decisions a game and have deep relationships with every pitcher and more than ever you cannot throw the defensive component away.”

Not sure the electronic strike zones would applied to MLB or not and when, but I believe it would affect the duties and values of the catcher heavily, I think MLB needs to make it more clear if or when the system would applied to MLB for teams and players to know what to do in the negotiations on new contract. 

[1.618]

2 hours ago, marlins_09 said:

 

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, don’t limit options at positions of need to whose available in free agency. This FO has already shown the willingness to make trades, and be creative in terms of player acquisition. Part of the reason you want “layers of talent” is so that you can trade for controllable big leaguers - Starling Marte. 
 

Think Christian Vasquez, Carson Kelly, Salvy Perez, heck they might even be able to snag Keibert Ruiz from LAD. 
 

A major benefit to having a strong system is having the freedom to go after guys like this without relying on whose available this cycle to fill out your roster. 

If we could get Perez, that would be amazing.  I think it's realistic, but we would have to give up a top tier prospect and some, along with Alfaro.  

I mentioned Perez earlier this year.  He put up good numbers albeit a small sample size.

AB 150., AVE 333, HR 11,  OPS .986

[marlins_09]

6 hours ago, jeffreysfishfry said:

If we could get Perez, that would be amazing.  I think it's realistic, but we would have to give up a top tier prospect and some, along with Alfaro.  

I mentioned Perez earlier this year.  He put up good numbers albeit a small sample size.

AB 150., AVE 333, HR 11,  OPS .986

It’s possible that the a Royals price themselves out of a partner for Salvy. The smart thing for them IMO would be to trade him and really begin their rebuild, but if they’re stuck on getting a Bleday/Meyer/Cabrera return, no thank you. 
 

I fully expect one of the fringe OF’s to be moved in a deal this offseason: Connor Scott, Jerar, Misner, etc. We’ll get a good sense of how the organization views these guys. 
 

From there, there are multiple secondary pieces that can included to increase the value if needed: Urena, Alfaro, Guzman, Holloway, any of the 2020 draft picks outside of Meyer/Fulton.

 

Even Elieser is a guy that could be moved for the right piece. I would rather not unless it’s for a controllable, truly impactful piece, but it shouldn’t be off the table. 
 

It’s going to be an interesting offseason! 

[SilverBullet]

15 hours ago, taiwanmarlin said:

https://www.mlb.com/marlins/news/marlins-2021-catcher-options

" I just don’t see Miami making a free-agent play for Realmuto or even James McCann, who is expected to have a big market."

If that's really the case, I would be very unhappy !!!

If the Marlins took the money that would be spent on JT and spread it out to improve at catcher, second base, and, say, maybe another reliver then you should be much happier than spending all that money on JT alone.

[TaiwanMarlins]

50 minutes ago, SilverBullet said:

If the Marlins took the money that would be spent on JT and spread it out to improve at catcher, second base, and, say, maybe another reliver then you should be much happier than spending all that money on JT alone.

What I mean was they should at least try to acquire James. 

[Admin]

If JT signs for around 200 million, I won't be mad if it is somewhere else. But if he signs for significantly less and we didn't even make a real effort, I will be pissed. So I hope we will try at a realistic number and I think we will.

[1.618]

1 hour ago, SonOfJack said:

If JT signs for around 200 million, I won't be mad if it is somewhere else. But if he signs for significantly less and we didn't even make a real effort, I will be pissed. So I hope we will try at a realistic number and I think we will.

Even if it's a long term deal, let's say anything over 6 years?

5 hours ago, marlins_09 said:

It’s possible that the a Royals price themselves out of a partner for Salvy. The smart thing for them IMO would be to trade him and really begin their rebuild, but if they’re stuck on getting a Bleday/Meyer/Cabrera return, no thank you. 
 

I fully expect one of the fringe OF’s to be moved in a deal this offseason: Connor Scott, Jerar, Misner, etc. We’ll get a good sense of how the organization views these guys. 
 

From there, there are multiple secondary pieces that can included to increase the value if needed: Urena, Alfaro, Guzman, Holloway, any of the 2020 draft picks outside of Meyer/Fulton.

 

Even Elieser is a guy that could be moved for the right piece. I would rather not unless it’s for a controllable, truly impactful piece, but it shouldn’t be off the table. 
 

It’s going to be an interesting offseason! 

You make nice points here.  I agree Bleday and Meyer are both off the table. Outside of that is just a host of fillers that may not be enticing enough. Elieser has mid range value, that would help, along with Alfaro.  I think Brinson or Harrison would have to be in the mix as well?.?.

You are right we have a surplus of players to be competitive in the offseason.  It should be interesting. 

Edited October 15, 2020 by jeffreysfishfry

[rmc523]

1 hour ago, jeffreysfishfry said:

Even if it's a long term deal, let's say anything over 6 years?

You make nice points here.  I agree Bleday and Meyer are both off the table. Outside of that is just a host of fillers that may not be enticing enough. Elieser has mid range value, that would help, along with Alfaro.  I think Brinson or Harrison would have to be in the mix as well?.?.

You are right we have a surplus of players to be competitive in the offseason.  It should be interesting. 

Are you advocating for something over or under 6 years?

I think you draw the line at 6 and don't go over that.  In fact, 5 would be better, but you could perhaps push to 6 with the DH coming.

[Admin]

5 minutes ago, rmc523 said:

Are you advocating for something over or under 6 years?

I think you draw the line at 6 and don't go over that.  In fact, 5 would be better, but you could perhaps push to 6 with the DH coming.

Agreed. 

[rmc523]

22 minutes ago, SonOfJack said:

Agreed. 

We've seen the 8-year mega deals for catchers already like Mauer and Posey, and neither have worked out great.  With JT, what, 30 now, I don't want anything beyond 5-6 years.

So, @jeffreysfishfry, @SonOfJack's point was that if you don't offer something at least to start that's a real offer , and he winds up taking something around what a "real" offer would be, it'd be a massive disappointment that there was a chance to get him with a legit reasonable offer.

TLDR: don't give him a BS lowball "we tried" offer that he's sure to decline out of hand.

I'm not good with coming up with numbers for contracts, but does 5/$125 act as a good starting point?    And push up to maybe  6/$180 max?  

Here are comparisons to Posey and Mauer:

Posey: 8/$159M; AAV: $19.875M

Mauer: 8/$184M; AAV: $23M

Realmuto A: 5/$125M; AAV: $25M

Realmuto B: 6/$160M; AAV: $26.667M

Realmuto 😄 6/$180M; AAV: $30M

 

All of those would give him the highest AAV for a catcher.  Option B beats Posey's deal slightly (so he can say he got more), while Option C would come close to Mauer's overall figure as well.

Now, 25-30M/year is definitely a big chunk of overall payroll, so that's tough to swallow, and would depend on their budget forecasting.

Maybe 6/180 is too much for us, don't know - I'm just throwing out numbers.  But that would be the absolute maximum, not a penny over.  You make that offer, you can hold your heads high and say, yeah we offered him a huge deal that would've been the highest AAV for a catcher ever, and he declined, we did our best.  If he wants more, or some 10 year 200M+ deal, see ya!  It'd be irresponsible to do more.

Regardless of what you offer, I also think you frontload either deal while some of our guys are still cheaper, that way we can balance the money out as the younger guys make more later on.

Edited October 15, 2020 by rmc523

[marlinsmaniac]

Sign James Mccann to a 2-3 year deal to Groom Alfaro for the long haul, sign Mitch Moreland on a one year deal to platoon with Aguilar if the Padres don’t pick up his option (say what you want, Aguilar played a huge part in changing the culture this season and he should be retained) And Lewin could benefit from at least half a season in the minors. If/when he’s ready, you can trade Moreland at the deadline like the Sox did this year. Pickup Kintzlers option but remove him as closer. Trade some of the fringe starters for relievers with some velocity and spin rates (Matt Barnes could be a great Buy low guy due to recent struggles and the Red Sox “retooling”)