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SilverBullet

2018 Winter Meetings

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5 minutes ago, tranquility said:

Steamer projects a 2019 WAR of 2.5 for Carlos Santana, who has two years and $35 million remaining on his contract. This year 2.5 fWAR was valued at about $20 million so Santana's contract is at least neutral even if Santana drops to 2.0 WAR in his second year.

Steamer projects a 2019 WAR of 1.3 for Martin Prado, who has one year and $15 million remaining on his contract. This year 1.3 fWAR was valued at about $10.7 million so Prado's contract could well have negative value.

Therefore, the Marlins would need to up the ante to even the trade.

Steamer projects ~1 fWAR for Justin Bour in 2019 and he just got 1 yr/$2.5 mil on the open market so I don't think those $/fWAR estimates you're using are too useful.

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4 minutes ago, MiguelDontrelle said:

Steamer projects ~1 fWAR for Justin Bour in 2019 and he just got 1 yr/$2.5 mil on the open market so I don't think those $/fWAR estimates you're using are too useful.

When someone evaluates a trade proposal, he or she make a projection -- explicitly or implicitly -- on how each player will perform.

I welcome alternative means of projecting value.

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If Realmuto gets traded to the Braves I'll buy every single active person in this thread a beer. And then I'll buy a Realmuto Braves jersey. for myself. Screen cap this post if you want, idc

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15 minutes ago, mrchainsaw said:

If Realmuto gets traded to the Braves I'll buy every single active person in this thread a beer. And then I'll buy a Realmuto Braves jersey. for myself. Screen cap this post if you want, idc

You want to just mail me my beer since I’m out of Florida if this goes down. How this work?

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2 hours ago, tranquility said:

When someone evaluates a trade proposal, he or she make a projection -- explicitly or implicitly -- on how each player will perform.

I welcome alternative means of projecting value.

You're missing the fact that the Marlins payroll for this upcoming season isn't an issue.  We don't have to dump Prado's contract.  Also, Prado's contract only has one season left on it.  Again, no need to dump his contact. Especially if it's going to cost us Brinson.  Brinson had a miserable rookie year but he was a highly rated prospect just two season's ago and he was the center piece of the Yelich trade.  No way they give up on him that quickly. 

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9 hours ago, tranquility said:

Steamer projects a 2019 WAR of 2.5 for Carlos Santana, who has two years and $35 million remaining on his contract. This year 2.5 fWAR was valued at about $20 million so Santana's contract is at least neutral even if Santana drops to 2.0 WAR in his second year.

Steamer projects a 2019 WAR of 1.3 for Martin Prado, who has one year and $15 million remaining on his contract. This year 1.3 fWAR was valued at about $10.7 million so Prado's contract could well have negative value.

Therefore, the Marlins would need to up the ante to even the trade.

I think the analysis is right here, but Prado can't be trusted to produce that amount. He is -$15 and a pure loss.

It's why they should just keep him until the deadline. If he can stay healthy for 3 months, they can turn him into some arm like Mills or Eveld, even if they eat all/most of his payroll.

Ultimately, it's stupid to trade for Santana.

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