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SilverBullet

Miami Marlins Top 32 Prospects

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6 hours ago, MiguelDontrelle said:

Not sure if understand or agree with this. If we're getting some mid-rotation starter out this trade (usually like 2-3 WAR type pitcher), 3 or 4 years of just that alone would easily out-WAR what the Cards are getting with Ozuna over his 2 seasons.

If he does become a legit #3 then sure. I just dont see it happening. The worst part of the Ozuna trade however is that Sierra was viewed as the second best piece.

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3 minutes ago, EricOwens! said:

If he does become a legit #3 then sure. I just dont see it happening. The worst part of the Ozuna trade however is that Sierra was viewed as the second best piece.

If he becomes a legit # 3 (call it an average 2.5 WAR pitcher for 5 years), it's highway robbery. You're talking about an easy $70-80 million in surplus value with that kind of player on an intro contract. Ozuna was worth maybe $45 million at best for two years (and he produced under this in 2018, which we will ignore for purposes evaluating at the time of trade).

If Alcantara contributes 5 WAR as a reliever over his club controlled years and Gallen does a Tom Koehler impression and drops 800-1,000 solid innings before getting phased out, call this another 5 WAR, you break even. If you get any sort of breakout, i.e. if either turns into a 1.5-2 WAR starter for a few years  (a #4) or Alcantara goes HAM and becomes a 1.5+ WAR reliever (top 30-40 overall reliever in baseball), or Sierra turns into a 1 WAR poor man Jarrod Dyson bench outfielder (which isn't out of the realm of possibility), you win that trade (unless Ozuna drops something huge like a 5 WAR year in 2019).

In their defense, FG gave Sierra a FV50 last year based on his Dyson level defensive potential and base running, but obviously that torpedo'd. Just like Brinson, he is young, and gets the age-mulligan. He's not even 23 today. There may be real backup potential there if the defense holds up and he starts hitting .250. His BABIP was terrible last year. A correction and not being a jerk in the OF fixes things fast.

Also, don't make me do an analysis for Yelich as to what the breakeven is for Brinson, Monte, Diaz, and Yamamoto. It's depressing. (It's basically a collective 30+ WAR for all 4 of those guys club controlled years. That's a breakeven, not a "win." It's terrible.)

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10 hours ago, MarlinsLou said:

Devers is a FV45 prospect, you're not getting that in the 20th+ round. That is a twice in a decade draft pick luck.

Stanton would have opted out., and destroyed the team's payroll in 5-6 years if he didn't.

Guzman is being worked as a starter to get innings, and is presumably ending in the bullpen. I don't think a small sample size WHIP tells us who he is. Let him throw, and let the bullpen conversion happen in 2020 (or earlier) if it's clear it's a failed experiment. (I find that likely, which is OK. A good reliever is a fine result.)

Castro is fine. In fact, I think they should maybe extend him for a 4/$50 type of deal starting this year, so I'm not sure where your head is with him. Check out his BB/Hard Hit rate improvements. He may be a buy low right now entering his middle prime years.

You're only making one point here - they whiffed on the Yelich trade. They did horribly, even if Brinson/Monte/Diaz work out (you're also selling Diaz particularly low by the way, FG just said they think he's a probable high floor 2+ WAR starter). We can criticize the living hell out of the Yelich deal, but everything past that wasn't an objectively bad move. Gordon wasn't producing what his salary was paying, and it looks like they hit gold with Neidert. Ozuna was not nearly as valuable as everyone thought. Yea, Alcantara, Sierra, and Gallen are disappointing thus far, it happens. Trades don't work out, but the idea of moving Ozuna wasn't the problem. Stanton getting hurt would have practically ended the franchise if he opted in as a loss. Look at how radical Chen/Prado is impacting the team?

How about this in 2021:

C - ______, ______
1B - _______, Cooper
2B - Diaz
SS - _______, Riddle
3B - Anderson
LF - ________
CF - VVM, Brinson (let's assume he becomes Michael Taylor and Monte fails)
RF - ________

SP - ______, _______, Urena, Neidert, Pablo/Gallen/Yamamoto
RHP - Alcantara, Guzman, E. Cabrera, Richards, Holloway (assume all the top rated RHP arms turn into relievers)
LHP - _______, Ca. Smith, Quijada
(Dead Money - Chen)

That's $42 million dollars in 2021, and probably about 20 WAR.

Add to this trade returns for Realmuto, Steckenrider, Conley, Castro, Straily, Rojas, Wittgren, etc. You're adding 4-6 more guys to the above, all club controlled, and that's probably moving this to $45 million/30 WAR territory (you're going to get some good guys for those first 3 in particular, of course they could bomb like the Yelich guys, but chances are you don't whiff that big twice). You're back to a .500 ballclub.

Now add $40-50 million in payroll on 2-3 major free agents. Cite Wolverine budgets. 

AND THEN, since your entire team is club controlled for 3+ years, pick 4-5 guys in the minors to trade from this: 2018 draft class (Scott, Osiris, Banfield, Pompey), 2019 Draft class (# 4 overall, two additional early 2nd rounders), 2020 Draft class (likely another top 5 pick and early second rounder), multiple former first rounders (Garret, Rogers), Devers, international free agents (as they are spending again), and anyone else who wants to break out (Miller, Nelson, Dunand, Torres, etc.). The Marlins can do exactly what the Brewers did - trade 3-4 guys and go out and get a Yelich, or Segura, or Andujar, or a Realmuto, or a Kluber, or a Paxton, etc., and really put that cherry on top of the next good Marlins team. Their prospect capital is probably enormous here with the early picks coming.

Criticize the Yelich deal A LOT. Putting a 4 WAR Brinson/Monte on top of that team would radically help. But past that, I'm not sure how this is a bad plan in theory.

The team sucked. An immediate turnaround wasn't to be expected, even if the Marlins had a good half dozen assets at the MLB level.

I can appreciate the amount of thought put into this scenario but that's an awful lot of moving parts to play out in that fashion.  In the end, the problem remains with the Marlins - who is going to come out to see those teams that are just whipping posts that struggle to score 3+ runs a game for the next 2 or 3 years?  I think I also have trouble envisioning that play out just based on the sheer amount of positivity around many of the projections (not saying they're wholly unrealistic - just that this franchise seems snakebit).

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9 hours ago, Uncle Leo said:

I think there are two problems here. Some are overvaluing the worth of a player like Stanton and his contract. We had him during what very well could have been his prime years and by far cheapest part of his deal. He could have singlehandedly sunk this team from 2021-2027 making 30M and being a .250 avg .700 OPS hurt often type of slugger. Look at how bad that Pujols deal was and that guy was a perennial MVP. We actually got prospects out of it due to Stanton being younger than when Pujols signed that ginormous deal. Ozuna deal wasn't great either but he has some Puig type headache's hurting his value. And the other problem, to add to that is that we haven't hit the nail on the head on a trade since 2005. So some people are upset and being biased that we needed more, but that's not really the problem. Perceived value wise we did fine at the time. The issue is we're terrible at identifying prospects that will actually turn into anything. And yea, there's no defending the Yelich trade. He was young, cheap, a gold glover and we should only have traded him away if we were getting a guy that was MLB ready and already a beast, like a Kyle Tucker or Vlad Guerrero type prospect. I think that's why the Marlins are holding on tight to JT, they finally need a can't miss prospect. 

Not since we traded away Beckett and Lowell and Mota for Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez have we been able to make a good trade. Miguel Cabrera trade was garbage. Traded away what was probably the best pure hitter in the league during the next decade along with Pujols for a mediocre OF in Maybin and Miller and we weren't even smart enough to try him in the bullpen where he eventually became one of the best in the game. We traded away guys like Descalfani and Eovaldi for nothing. We gave up Eovaldi for fuckin' Martin Prado who's killing us value wise the past few years and we kept extending him which might have been the worst extensions ever. Only saving grace was that Phelps was a throw in in that deal and he turned out better than expected. The Dee Gordon trade was solid. We gave up a bunch of prospects for Jarred Cosart only for him to flame out and then bundled him with very good pitchers Luis Castillo and recovering Capps for Cashner. Another dumpster fire. The issue is that from Chen to Heath Bell and all these trades, I can keep going. I think we all just miss the NEXT group of players.

Where is the future Stanton or Yelich? When is the last time we made a trade and two years later we were like, wow we killed them in that trade. I'm not complaining about the theory behind all of it, I'm 100% with it, I'm just questioning the execution. They obviously need more time, these prospects don't become stars from one year to the next, but our moves from 2014-2017 were complete failures. Let's hope with time we start hitting on some of these trades and we feel differently. 

This is a quality post and should appeal to both parties on this board. 

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6 hours ago, MarlinsLou said:

Also, don't make me do an analysis for Yelich as to what the breakeven is for Brinson, Monte, Diaz, and Yamamoto. It's depressing. (It's basically a collective 30+ WAR for all 4 of those guys club controlled years. That's a breakeven, not a "win." It's terrible.)

Are you saying it was that bad at the time of trade or post 2018? I thought the consensus at the time of the deal was that the Marlins did pretty well. I thought the 60 FV, 50, 50, 40 return was pretty much in line with the return Eaton got - the most similar comp I can think of, although his value might've been higher than Yelich's due to his contract - 60 FV Giolito, 55 Lopez, 45 Dunning. But yeah obviously the post 2018 outlook is worse given Yelich's 2018.

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On 12/21/2018 at 11:00 AM, MarlinsLou said:

Devers is a FV45 prospect, you're not getting that in the 20th+ round. That is a twice in a decade draft pick luck.

Stanton would have opted out., and destroyed the team's payroll in 5-6 years if he didn't.

Guzman is being worked as a starter to get innings, and is presumably ending in the bullpen. I don't think a small sample size WHIP tells us who he is. Let him throw, and let the bullpen conversion happen in 2020 (or earlier) if it's clear it's a failed experiment. (I find that likely, which is OK. A good reliever is a fine result.)

Castro is fine. In fact, I think they should maybe extend him for a 4/$50 type of deal starting this year, so I'm not sure where your head is with him. Check out his BB/Hard Hit rate improvements. He may be a buy low right now entering his middle prime years.

You're only making one point here - they whiffed on the Yelich trade. They did horribly, even if Brinson/Monte/Diaz work out (you're also selling Diaz particularly low by the way, FG just said they think he's a probable high floor 2+ WAR starter). We can criticize the living hell out of the Yelich deal, but everything past that wasn't an objectively bad move. Gordon wasn't producing what his salary was paying, and it looks like they hit gold with Neidert. Ozuna was not nearly as valuable as everyone thought. Yea, Alcantara, Sierra, and Gallen are disappointing thus far, it happens. Trades don't work out, but the idea of moving Ozuna wasn't the problem. Stanton getting hurt would have practically ended the franchise if he opted in as a loss. Look at how radical Chen/Prado is impacting the team?

How about this in 2021:

C - ______, ______
1B - _______, Cooper
2B - Diaz
SS - _______, Riddle
3B - Anderson
LF - ________
CF - VVM, Brinson (let's assume he becomes Michael Taylor and Monte fails)
RF - ________

SP - ______, _______, Urena, Neidert, Pablo/Gallen/Yamamoto
RHP - Alcantara, Guzman, E. Cabrera, Richards, Holloway (assume all the top rated RHP arms turn into relievers)
LHP - _______, Ca. Smith, Quijada
(Dead Money - Chen)

That's $42 million dollars in 2021, and probably about 20 WAR.

Add to this trade returns for Realmuto, Steckenrider, Conley, Castro, Straily, Rojas, Wittgren, etc. You're adding 4-6 more guys to the above, all club controlled, and that's probably moving this to $45 million/30 WAR territory (you're going to get some good guys for those first 3 in particular, of course they could bomb like the Yelich guys, but chances are you don't whiff that big twice). You're back to a .500 ballclub.

Now add $40-50 million in payroll on 2-3 major free agents. Cite Wolverine budgets. 

AND THEN, since your entire team is club controlled for 3+ years, pick 4-5 guys in the minors to trade from this: 2018 draft class (Scott, Osiris, Banfield, Pompey), 2019 Draft class (# 4 overall, two additional early 2nd rounders), 2020 Draft class (likely another top 5 pick and early second rounder), multiple former first rounders (Garret, Rogers), Devers, international free agents (as they are spending again), and anyone else who wants to break out (Miller, Nelson, Dunand, Torres, etc.). The Marlins can do exactly what the Brewers did - trade 3-4 guys and go out and get a Yelich, or Segura, or Andujar, or a Realmuto, or a Kluber, or a Paxton, etc., and really put that cherry on top of the next good Marlins team. Their prospect capital is probably enormous here with the early picks coming.

Criticize the Yelich deal A LOT. Putting a 4 WAR Brinson/Monte on top of that team would radically help. But past that, I'm not sure how this is a bad plan in theory.

The team sucked. An immediate turnaround wasn't to be expected, even if the Marlins had a good half dozen assets at the MLB level.

It's alot to digest and I'm at work but...

I appreciate you writing it, it was informative- I just don't agree with your assestment. I can't see this team employing Riddle, Diaz, Cooper, and possibly Brinson when it's ready to compete. My gut feeling is we get lucky and Brinson becomes Kotsay or Maybin 2.0, great teammates and good MLB Vets not making much but having long careers as somewhat journeymen.

Our farm system went from being the worst, to just being a bad. It sucks, because I love this team, but there's not much to root for here and I don't see a light at the end of the tunnel like I did in 1998 (THAT was my first true year as a fan), 2006, or 2013. The Stanton trade to me was short sighted, because it cost them Yelich and Realmuto.

Hoping this team can compete is sad, but I'm really hopeful they will complement the prospects we have with legitimate free agent signings.

Truthfully, I don't see a potential All Star or Star in the system period outside of Realmuto. I see Brinson being a Gaby Sanchez type All Star- someone who is an All Star because we HAVE to have one.

I don't see our farm as being capable of landing a star player in a trade.

 

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On 12/21/2018 at 9:17 PM, hovertical said:

I can appreciate the amount of thought put into this scenario but that's an awful lot of moving parts to play out in that fashion.  In the end, the problem remains with the Marlins - who is going to come out to see those teams that are just whipping posts that struggle to score 3+ runs a game for the next 2 or 3 years?  I think I also have trouble envisioning that play out just based on the sheer amount of positivity around many of the projections (not saying they're wholly unrealistic - just that this franchise seems snakebit).

TLDR - Don’t fuck up Realmuto trade and pray they spend money on FA for 2021

 

I have no answer for getting people excited about a total rebuild. You have to be a baseball nerd to appreciate what is happening and how little victories - like going over-slot for Banfield, getting a lucky 3rd rounder in Pompey, acquiring some nominal RHP relievers in back to back years in the Rule5, getting Ca. Smith for a nominal prospect, winning the Phelps trade, getting Richards from the independent leagues, etc. - are eventually going to turn into some real value for the team in years. I am a full on believer in the "Sam Hinkie" rebuild philosophy. Burn it all down until you can be good again. I know that doesn't help short term ticket sales, which definitely cuts against being unapologetic to build a winner, but the end goal is to build a winner so that's how I roll.

In any event, I think it's actually a low level of moving parts. It really boils down to "get a good package for Realmuto, Steckenrider, Conley, Castro, and Straily when you inevitably trade them." If we do the basic math on the assets that they have, what I'm basically saying is, I think they will have 9+ WAR in 6 position players by 2021, I think they'll have 5+ WAR in 3 SP, and 6+ WAR in relievers. Of course, tinker that up or down among each positional group to 20+ WAR which I think is an acceptable goal.

Hitters

Anderson - 2.2 WAR projection in 2019 (644 PA) (Note, 3.4 WAR in 2018)

Call these guys bench options (longterm basis). Current projections extrapolated to bench PA

Brinson - .6 (350/PA) or Dean - .8 (350/PA)

Riddle - .7 (350/PA)

Cooper - .6 (350/PA)

I don’t think we’re asking a lot here for Diaz and VVM to turn into 2+ WAR starters by 2021, or likewise, them not working out and Monte and/or Brinson do work out and become (at least) a low-end 2+ WAR starter on defense/dingers, or if those bench options fail, someone like Sierra or Harold Ramirez working out, or Anderson keeping his 2018 performance. This isn’t great at all, but collectively, if they get 3 starters and 3 bench players out of this producing 9+ WAR, this is starting to form the basis of a CHEAP (important concept is saving money) and solid supporting cast which is all my point is here. 

Pitchers

So then you get to the starting pitching, and assume your 3/4/5 SP can get you 5+ WAR combined. In 2018, Urena, Ca. Smith, and Richards produced 4.4 WAR in 377 innings (well below the innings of what three SP would throw). They might already have this threshold met. Practically, I think I’m averaging this very low considering Neidert looks to be a better prospect than everyone here, Urena took a big step forward this year, and the likelihood that one of Alcantara/Ca. Smith/Richards/Pablo/Gallen/Yamamoto works out into at least a good 4/5 SP is high. They all likely won’t fail. In any event, Urena/Pablo/Richards/Ca. Smith this season are projected to have a 3.7 WAR in 464 innings. If you extrapolate that up to 600 innings (i.e., 3 SP), you’re at 4.8 and basically already at this hypothetical threshold I'm debating. I think this is very safe to assume they will get 3 guys here producing a combined 5 WAR in the rotation. I guess you can call that a moving part, but this is a really really low projection.

So this gets you to the bullpen. This is where I think I may side with you, but I have cautious optimism. A middle of the pack bullpen is 3.5+ WAR, and an elite bullpen is 6+ WAR. The Marlins need to develop an elite one. The Yankees have averaged over 8 WAR the last 3 seasons, and I don’t think I need to point out who built that bullpen which is where my leap of faith is here. I believe that Denbo/team are really focusing on this and rebuilding the Yankees bullpen down in Miami. When we look at what the pen could look like without needing these guys as starters (Alcantara, Guzman, E. Cabrera, Holloway, Richards, Ca. Smith, Quijada, and Garcia as the first tier, and a second tier of Anderson, Brigham, Ferrell, Merandy, Gallen, Guerrero, Hernandez, Keller, Yamamoto, Duggers, Beggs, Eveld, Mills, etc.), I think that’s A LOT of guys to figure out 7-8 good arms. I think this is going to be closer to 6 than 3.5 by 2021, even if this falls short.

So that's where, shift up the bats or SP a little, shift down the bullpen a little, and we're at 17 players/roughly $42 million (and $16 of that is a final Chen payment)/20+ WAR expectation. I mean, that sucks if you think about it. Their best assets internally (for 2021, basically ignoring 2018 draft) taking away just a few guys, is a probably a 20 WAR team absent something amazing happening. That's just not that great. But, they can trade Realmuto, Steckenrider, Conley, Castro, Straily, Rojas, Wittgren, etc., they can spend money in 1-2 seasons, and they can unload prospect inventory in 2021 to get another win now player (ala the Brewers). Yea, that is moving parts and a lot of things could go wrong, but a lot of things could go right too. We'll see. This makes total sense to me on paper.

They really have to crush the Realmuto trade.

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On 12/21/2018 at 9:47 PM, MiguelDontrelle said:

Are you saying it was that bad at the time of trade or post 2018? I thought the consensus at the time of the deal was that the Marlins did pretty well. I thought the 60 FV, 50, 50, 40 return was pretty much in line with the return Eaton got - the most similar comp I can think of, although his value might've been higher than Yelich's due to his contract - 60 FV Giolito, 55 Lopez, 45 Dunning. But yeah obviously the post 2018 outlook is worse given Yelich's 2018.

Bad at the time of trade, and worse after 2018 (but that's obvious as Yelich got even better than expected and the Brewers outfielders each feel down a peg). I'd have given Yelich $150 million in surplus value prior to the trade, and at the time of trade, Brinson, Monte, Diaz, and Yamamoto probably totaled around $125+ in value.

They should have gotten Monte/Diaz upgraded to Hiura, or Yamamoto upgraded to Burnes, or maybe 1-2 other guys (like Brett Phillips) thrown in, etc.

I hated it day 1, and now I mega-loathe it. 

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8 hours ago, Piazza31 said:

It's alot to digest and I'm at work but...

I appreciate you writing it, it was informative- I just don't agree with your assestment. I can't see this team employing Riddle, Diaz, Cooper, and possibly Brinson when it's ready to compete. My gut feeling is we get lucky and Brinson becomes Kotsay or Maybin 2.0, great teammates and good MLB Vets not making much but having long careers as somewhat journeymen.

Our farm system went from being the worst, to just being a bad. It sucks, because I love this team, but there's not much to root for here and I don't see a light at the end of the tunnel like I did in 1998 (THAT was my first true year as a fan), 2006, or 2013. The Stanton trade to me was short sighted, because it cost them Yelich and Realmuto.

Hoping this team can compete is sad, but I'm really hopeful they will complement the prospects we have with legitimate free agent signings.

Truthfully, I don't see a potential All Star or Star in the system period outside of Realmuto. I see Brinson being a Gaby Sanchez type All Star- someone who is an All Star because we HAVE to have one.

I don't see our farm as being capable of landing a star player in a trade.

 

I don't disagree with you here for the most part. 

Let me try and say this another way, I think the Marlins between (A) all the guys they currently have that will be MLB ready by 2021; and (B) everyone you want to trade off the MLB team besides Realmuto; are the makings of a pretty solid players 6-25 on a MLB roster that will be very cheap.

They need to get probably 5 guys who are better than Anderson (who I think we'd all agree is probably the best longterm player they have right now):

Realmuto Asset # 1
Major FA 1
Major FA 2
Trading 2018/2019/2020/Future IFA players for a 2021 win now player
Realmuto Asset # 2 / Someone else breaking out into a 3.5+ WAR player, like Monte or Brinson

That's the blueprint. I think they will have the rest figured out.

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