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Miami Marlins Top 32 Prospects

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9 hours ago, EricOwens! said:

He performed pretty in line with his career numbers last year. Started off slow if I remember correctly but he still ended with a 2.7 WAR. He has the potential to be an all star any given year, and considering we traded him with 2 years of control, a potential #3 starter and a reliever isn't good enough return once you discount for uncertainty.

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15 hours ago, EricOwens! said:

He performed pretty in line with his career numbers last year. Started off slow if I remember correctly but he still ended with a 2.7 WAR. He has the potential to be an all star any given year, and considering we traded him with 2 years of control, a potential #3 starter and a reliever isn't good enough return once you discount for uncertainty.

Not sure if understand or agree with this. If we're getting some mid-rotation starter out this trade (usually like 2-3 WAR type pitcher), 3 or 4 years of just that alone would easily out-WAR what the Cards are getting with Ozuna over his 2 seasons.

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16 hours ago, marlins_09 said:

We created 3 holes on the roster NOW, to gain assets for the future (both prospects and payroll). 

We weren’t going to compete in the lifespan of those 3 players. The farm system was barren and there were no practical answer to the issues we had. 

This is really simple stuff. 

It's super simple, Yelich was under control for 5 years and until 2022, and as many here argued Stanton wasn't opting out so he was here until 2029. JT would have been more likely to sign a 5 year deal, so lets say he; would have been here until 2023.

We got Brinson, who might not do anything at the MLB level (last year I pray was an abberation). We could have signed Cameron Maybin and gotten the same production for the next 3 years if brinson does the same.

Lets look at the Stanton Deal.

We got Devers, who scouts predict will be a MLB infielder... is that the criteria... can we call them a MLB player? Donovan Solano is a MLB infielder.  Devers' hasnt even reached AA yet. His career minor league average is .260 or so. You mean to tell me you can't draft a INF in the 23rd Round who has shown the same potential?

Jorge Guzman- 4 years in pro ball and has yet to reach AA. He of the 1.54 WHIP in Jupiter. He who was so bad in the Astros farm system they traded him from "Astros Orange" to "Astros Blue".

Yeah man, our Farm System is better with those guys. By Golly We needed those guys.

What the hell are we doing still paying Starlin Castro?

Lets evaluate the Yelich Deal.

Brinson is being called a bust. He's still got potential and he is a hell of a Outfielder... not so much a hitter. I'm sure Braxton Lee could have hit what Brinson did in a full season being forced into the lineup. I hope he becomes Christian Yelich or even Cameron Maybin.

Isan Diaz played poorly in AAA (200 average) and ended up getting promoted from AA where he lit the league on fire batting .245. We can't sign an international FA who can have the same potential or draft someone?

Harrison played well, showed flashes and hit .240 and 19 HR. But then didn't do jack shit in AZFALL. I hope he develops, but he's not a can't miss guy either.

THE ONLY player in those two deals who has played well, is Jordan Yamamoto an he just graduated from a throwing league in single A to a pitching league in AA. He's proven to be the one bright spot.

We traded a slugger that was already a MVP who hit 59HR in our massive park, a OF who already was well known for being a professional and a gold glove caliber CF and in a few days the BEST catcher in baseball who may give up passed balls but catches basestealers and plays a premium position exceptional.

In other words, WTF is the point of trading all those guys- to restock a farm.

Our Farm System Still sucks, but still doing everything else we did this year- wed be better off.

We probably could have gotten players like Devers, Diaz, Yamamoto, Guzman and Harrison by signing Vets and trading them at the deadline. All it'd cost is money.

Hell they still should.

 

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21 minutes ago, Piazza31 said:

It's super simple, Yelich was under control for 5 years and until 2022, and as many here argued Stanton wasn't opting out so he was here until 2029. JT would have been more likely to sign a 5 year deal, so lets say he; would have been here until 2023.

We got Brinson, who might not do anything at the MLB level (last year I pray was an abberation). We could have signed Cameron Maybin and gotten the same production for the next 3 years if brinson does the same.

Lets look at the Stanton Deal.

We got Devers, who scouts predict will be a MLB infielder... is that the criteria... can we call them a MLB player? Donovan Solano is a MLB infielder.  Devers' hasnt even reached AA yet. His career minor league average is .260 or so. You mean to tell me you can't draft a INF in the 23rd Round who has shown the same potential?

Jorge Guzman- 4 years in pro ball and has yet to reach AA. He of the 1.54 WHIP in Jupiter. He who was so bad in the Astros farm system they traded him from "Astros Orange" to "Astros Blue".

Yeah man, our Farm System is better with those guys. By Golly We needed those guys.

What the hell are we doing still paying Starlin Castro?

Lets evaluate the Yelich Deal.

Brinson is being called a bust. He's still got potential and he is a hell of a Outfielder... not so much a hitter. I'm sure Braxton Lee could have hit what Brinson did in a full season being forced into the lineup. I hope he becomes Christian Yelich or even Cameron Maybin.

Isan Diaz played poorly in AAA (200 average) and ended up getting promoted from AA where he lit the league on fire batting .245. We can't sign an international FA who can have the same potential or draft someone?

Harrison played well, showed flashes and hit .240 and 19 HR. But then didn't do jack shit in AZFALL. I hope he develops, but he's not a can't miss guy either.

THE ONLY player in those two deals who has played well, is Jordan Yamamoto an he just graduated from a throwing league in single A to a pitching league in AA. He's proven to be the one bright spot.

We traded a slugger that was already a MVP who hit 59HR in our massive park, a OF who already was well known for being a professional and a gold glove caliber CF and in a few days the BEST catcher in baseball who may give up passed balls but catches basestealers and plays a premium position exceptional.

In other words, WTF is the point of trading all those guys- to restock a farm.

Our Farm System Still sucks, but still doing everything else we did this year- wed be better off.

We probably could have gotten players like Devers, Diaz, Yamamoto, Guzman and Harrison by signing Vets and trading them at the deadline. All it'd cost is money.

Hell they still should.

 

Devers is a FV45 prospect, you're not getting that in the 20th+ round. That is a twice in a decade draft pick luck.

Stanton would have opted out., and destroyed the team's payroll in 5-6 years if he didn't.

Guzman is being worked as a starter to get innings, and is presumably ending in the bullpen. I don't think a small sample size WHIP tells us who he is. Let him throw, and let the bullpen conversion happen in 2020 (or earlier) if it's clear it's a failed experiment. (I find that likely, which is OK. A good reliever is a fine result.)

Castro is fine. In fact, I think they should maybe extend him for a 4/$50 type of deal starting this year, so I'm not sure where your head is with him. Check out his BB/Hard Hit rate improvements. He may be a buy low right now entering his middle prime years.

You're only making one point here - they whiffed on the Yelich trade. They did horribly, even if Brinson/Monte/Diaz work out (you're also selling Diaz particularly low by the way, FG just said they think he's a probable high floor 2+ WAR starter). We can criticize the living hell out of the Yelich deal, but everything past that wasn't an objectively bad move. Gordon wasn't producing what his salary was paying, and it looks like they hit gold with Neidert. Ozuna was not nearly as valuable as everyone thought. Yea, Alcantara, Sierra, and Gallen are disappointing thus far, it happens. Trades don't work out, but the idea of moving Ozuna wasn't the problem. Stanton getting hurt would have practically ended the franchise if he opted in as a loss. Look at how radical Chen/Prado is impacting the team?

How about this in 2021:

C - ______, ______
1B - _______, Cooper
2B - Diaz
SS - _______, Riddle
3B - Anderson
LF - ________
CF - VVM, Brinson (let's assume he becomes Michael Taylor and Monte fails)
RF - ________

SP - ______, _______, Urena, Neidert, Pablo/Gallen/Yamamoto
RHP - Alcantara, Guzman, E. Cabrera, Richards, Holloway (assume all the top rated RHP arms turn into relievers)
LHP - _______, Ca. Smith, Quijada
(Dead Money - Chen)

That's $42 million dollars in 2021, and probably about 20 WAR.

Add to this trade returns for Realmuto, Steckenrider, Conley, Castro, Straily, Rojas, Wittgren, etc. You're adding 4-6 more guys to the above, all club controlled, and that's probably moving this to $45 million/30 WAR territory (you're going to get some good guys for those first 3 in particular, of course they could bomb like the Yelich guys, but chances are you don't whiff that big twice). You're back to a .500 ballclub.

Now add $40-50 million in payroll on 2-3 major free agents. Cite Wolverine budgets. 

AND THEN, since your entire team is club controlled for 3+ years, pick 4-5 guys in the minors to trade from this: 2018 draft class (Scott, Osiris, Banfield, Pompey), 2019 Draft class (# 4 overall, two additional early 2nd rounders), 2020 Draft class (likely another top 5 pick and early second rounder), multiple former first rounders (Garret, Rogers), Devers, international free agents (as they are spending again), and anyone else who wants to break out (Miller, Nelson, Dunand, Torres, etc.). The Marlins can do exactly what the Brewers did - trade 3-4 guys and go out and get a Yelich, or Segura, or Andujar, or a Realmuto, or a Kluber, or a Paxton, etc., and really put that cherry on top of the next good Marlins team. Their prospect capital is probably enormous here with the early picks coming.

Criticize the Yelich deal A LOT. Putting a 4 WAR Brinson/Monte on top of that team would radically help. But past that, I'm not sure how this is a bad plan in theory.

The team sucked. An immediate turnaround wasn't to be expected, even if the Marlins had a good half dozen assets at the MLB level.

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I had zero problem with getting rid of Gordon or Ozuna, which was the right move, even if the guys we got haven't been fantastic thus far.  The Stanton deal, while I understood completely from a financial perspective, wasn't fun - he was the franchise player, and he's gone, but again, I understood that.  The Yelich deal is where things went off the rails - they took a deal to take a deal rather than holding out for a great offer like they've been doing with Realmuto.

But there's not much that can be done about that now, all we can do is look forward with what we have.

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I think there are two problems here. Some are overvaluing the worth of a player like Stanton and his contract. We had him during what very well could have been his prime years and by far cheapest part of his deal. He could have singlehandedly sunk this team from 2021-2027 making 30M and being a .250 avg .700 OPS hurt often type of slugger. Look at how bad that Pujols deal was and that guy was a perennial MVP. We actually got prospects out of it due to Stanton being younger than when Pujols signed that ginormous deal. Ozuna deal wasn't great either but he has some Puig type headache's hurting his value. And the other problem, to add to that is that we haven't hit the nail on the head on a trade since 2005. So some people are upset and being biased that we needed more, but that's not really the problem. Perceived value wise we did fine at the time. The issue is we're terrible at identifying prospects that will actually turn into anything. And yea, there's no defending the Yelich trade. He was young, cheap, a gold glover and we should only have traded him away if we were getting a guy that was MLB ready and already a beast, like a Kyle Tucker or Vlad Guerrero type prospect. I think that's why the Marlins are holding on tight to JT, they finally need a can't miss prospect. 

Not since we traded away Beckett and Lowell and Mota for Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez have we been able to make a good trade. Miguel Cabrera trade was garbage. Traded away what was probably the best pure hitter in the league during the next decade along with Pujols for a mediocre OF in Maybin and Miller and we weren't even smart enough to try him in the bullpen where he eventually became one of the best in the game. We traded away guys like Descalfani and Eovaldi for nothing. We gave up Eovaldi for fuckin' Martin Prado who's killing us value wise the past few years and we kept extending him which might have been the worst extensions ever. Only saving grace was that Phelps was a throw in in that deal and he turned out better than expected. The Dee Gordon trade was solid. We gave up a bunch of prospects for Jarred Cosart only for him to flame out and then bundled him with very good pitchers Luis Castillo and recovering Capps for Cashner. Another dumpster fire. The issue is that from Chen to Heath Bell and all these trades, I can keep going. I think we all just miss the NEXT group of players.

Where is the future Stanton or Yelich? When is the last time we made a trade and two years later we were like, wow we killed them in that trade. I'm not complaining about the theory behind all of it, I'm 100% with it, I'm just questioning the execution. They obviously need more time, these prospects don't become stars from one year to the next, but our moves from 2014-2017 were complete failures. Let's hope with time we start hitting on some of these trades and we feel differently. 

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I will defend the Eovaldi trade. We got Prado and Phelps and both performed great for us. Prado become a problem after he was extended so that's not part of the Eovaldi trade, that was bad extension but not bad on the trade. I count the Eovaldi trade as for what Prado did here before the extension. And Eovaldi was trash here, can't think anything about what happened to Eovaldi this year. To get what we got was great. 

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2 minutes ago, Uncle Leo said:

I think there are two problems here. Some are overvaluing the worth of a player like Stanton and his contract. We had him during what very well could have been his prime years and by far cheapest part of his deal. He could have singlehandedly sunk this team from 2021-2027 making 30M and being a .250 avg .700 OPS hurt often type of slugger. Look at how bad that Pujols deal was and that guy was a perennial MVP. We actually got prospects out of it due to Stanton being younger than when Pujols signed that ginormous deal. Ozuna deal wasn't great either but he has some Puig type headache's hurting his value. And the other problem, to add to that is that we haven't hit the nail on the head on a trade since 2005. So some people are upset and being biased that we needed more, but that's not really the problem. Perceived value wise we did fine at the time. The issue is we're terrible at identifying prospects that will actually turn into anything. And yea, there's no defending the Yelich trade. He was young, cheap, a gold glover and we should only have traded him away if we were getting a guy that was MLB ready and already a beast, like a Kyle Tucker or Vlad Guerrero type prospect. I think that's why the Marlins are holding on tight to JT, they finally need a can't miss prospect. 

Not since we traded away Beckett and Lowell and Mota for Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez have we been able to make a good trade. Miguel Cabrera trade was garbage. Traded away what was probably the best pure hitter in the league during the next decade along with Pujols for a mediocre OF in Maybin and Miller and we weren't even smart enough to try him in the bullpen where he eventually became one of the best in the game. We traded away guys like Descalfani and Eovaldi for nothing. We gave up Eovaldi for fuckin' Martin Prado who's killing us value wise the past few years and we kept extending him which might have been the worst extensions ever. Only saving grace was that Phelps was a throw in in that deal and he turned out better than expected. The Dee Gordon trade was solid. We gave up a bunch of prospects for Jarred Cosart only for him to flame out and then bundled him with very good pitchers Luis Castillo and recovering Capps for Cashner. Another dumpster fire. The issue is that from Chen to Heath Bell and all these trades, I can keep going. I think we all just miss the NEXT group of players.

Where is the future Stanton or Yelich? When is the last time we made a trade and two years later we were like, wow we killed them in that trade. I'm not complaining about the theory behind all of it, I'm 100% with it, I'm just questioning the execution. They obviously need more time, these prospects don't become stars from one year to the next, but our moves from 2014-2017 were complete failures. Let's hope with time we start hitting on some of these trades and we feel differently. 

The execution for pre-2018 was "Loria." It's tough to use that as a baseline with the meddling.

Yelich trade looks like a disaster so that's all we have to work on now. Gordon, Ozuna, and Stanton were fine. Those were never going to be radical needle movers.

So are they going to mess up Realmuto? That's a big question we'll have to see. He's more valuable than Gordon, Ozuna, and Stanton, and if they drop another Yelich, whoever is in charge (Hill) needs to go. 

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@MarlinsLou , this is only a Bleacher Report filler article/suggestion but what would you think of Brendan Rodgers from the Rockies as the headliner in a return for JT?

Quote

 

Would a package built around top prospect Brendan Rodgers be enough for the Marlins to pull the trigger?

Rodgers, 22, posted a .790 OPS with 27 doubles, 17 home runs and 67 RBI against much older competition while splitting the season between Double-A and Triple-A. He's the No. 9 prospect in baseball, according to MLB.com, and could be ready for the majors in 2019.

A strong argument can be made that no team would benefit more from adding J.T. Realmuto than the Rockies. The catcher position produced a brutal .206/.307/.349 line for Colorado last season, and with a young pitching staff, stability behind the plate defensively will be instrumental in Denver.

If the front office believes Garrett Hampson is the future at second base and thinks rising prospect Colton Welker is the heir to Nolan Arenado at third base, flipping top prospect Brendan Rodgers in a swap for Realmuto is justifiable.

Rodgers alone won't get a deal done, but the Rockies have a deep enough system to fill out the trade package. Finding a way to send incumbent catcher Chris Iannetta and his $4.2 million salary the other way would also make sense.

 

 

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18 minutes ago, SilverBullet said:

@MarlinsLou , this is only a Bleacher Report filler article/suggestion but what would you think of Brendan Rodgers from the Rockies as the headliner in a return for JT?

 

I would be all over that. They have good secondary pieces (Pint, Nevin) so a deal can work out if the Rockies want to go all in. Give'em a reliever. 

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