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2020 Post-Season Thread


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1 hour ago, rmc523 said:

Are you advocating for something over or under 6 years?

I think you draw the line at 6 and don't go over that.  In fact, 5 would be better, but you could perhaps push to 6 with the DH coming.

No more than 6 years. I would pay a higher rate per year for a 5-6 year deal. 

Anything longer than 6 years is asking for trouble. 

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On 10/14/2020 at 5:36 PM, FishFan95 said:

Making win now moves will be the difference in the team being like the Pirates/Royals window or being like the Cubs/Astros window. The Marlins weakest and thinnest position right now has to be catcher. Can anyone think of a championship team the last 20 years where that has been the case? You look at the '97 team and the '03 team and they both had a terrific catcher both at the defensive end and in handling the pitching staff. Charles Johnson even had one of his better years offensively. Pudge was solid across the board. An upgrade behind the dish has to be the team's top priority this offseason. The only two options on the FA market I can think of would be JT or James McCann.

JT is unrealistic...like in outer space realistic because of money/contract. He’s not going to be healthy after this one is up. Just how playing Catcher is. McCann is realistic and we’ll only shell out somewhere between 11-13 mil a year plus add pop to the lineup. A cheap option would be Matt Weiters but he would be a righty only option. It’s also worth looking at Wilson Ramos and Mike Zunino if their options aren’t picked up.

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1 hour ago, rmc523 said:

We've seen the 8-year mega deals for catchers already like Mauer and Posey, and neither have worked out great.  With JT, what, 30 now, I don't want anything beyond 5-6 years.

So, @jeffreysfishfry, @SonOfJack's point was that if you don't offer something at least to start that's a real offer , and he winds up taking something around what a "real" offer would be, it'd be a massive disappointment that there was a chance to get him with a legit reasonable offer.

TLDR: don't give him a BS lowball "we tried" offer that he's sure to decline out of hand.

I'm not good with coming up with numbers for contracts, but does 5/$125 act as a good starting point?    And push up to maybe  6/$180 max?  

Here are comparisons to Posey and Mauer:

Posey: 8/$159M; AAV: $19.875M

Mauer: 8/$184M; AAV: $23M

Realmuto A: 5/$125M; AAV: $25M

Realmuto B: 6/$160M; AAV: $26.667M

Realmuto 😄 6/$180M; AAV: $30M

 

All of those would give him the highest AAV for a catcher.  Option B beats Posey's deal slightly (so he can say he got more), while Option C would come close to Mauer's overall figure as well.

Now, 25-30M/year is definitely a big chunk of overall payroll, so that's tough to swallow, and would depend on their budget forecasting.

Maybe 6/180 is too much for us, don't know - I'm just throwing out numbers.  But that would be the absolute maximum, not a penny over.  You make that offer, you can hold your heads high and say, yeah we offered him a huge deal that would've been the highest AAV for a catcher ever, and he declined, we did our best.  If he wants more, or some 10 year 200M+ deal, see ya!  It'd be irresponsible to do more.

Regardless of what you offer, I also think you frontload either deal while some of our guys are still cheaper, that way we can balance the money out as the younger guys make more later on.

I agree, front load his contract, that should make it more appealing and like you said we have the luxury to do so with our current core of players. 

It will be hard to match what the Phillies will offer. They have to double down in a way after gaving up Sixto and prospects.  Harper is very vocal about resigning JT to, I don't think Harper want to be left out on an island by himself in Philly 😂

Unless JT wants to take a bit less to play for the Marlins, I don't see it any other way.  I do think we can pay just as much or more for a shorter contract, a 3-4 year deal and I would be all in. 

 

 

 

Edited by jeffreysfishfry
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22 hours ago, marlins_09 said:

It’s possible that the a Royals price themselves out of a partner for Salvy. The smart thing for them IMO would be to trade him and really begin their rebuild, but if they’re stuck on getting a Bleday/Meyer/Cabrera return, no thank you. 
 

I fully expect one of the fringe OF’s to be moved in a deal this offseason: Connor Scott, Jerar, Misner, etc. We’ll get a good sense of how the organization views these guys. 
 

From there, there are multiple secondary pieces that can included to increase the value if needed: Urena, Alfaro, Guzman, Holloway, any of the 2020 draft picks outside of Meyer/Fulton.

 

Even Elieser is a guy that could be moved for the right piece. I would rather not unless it’s for a controllable, truly impactful piece, but it shouldn’t be off the table. 
 

It’s going to be an interesting offseason! 

Is the suggestion here that one of the “fringe OFs” + secondary piece(s) would net you a quality big leaguer? No chance. And Ureña has no value. Holloway has next to no value. Guzman looked terrible. I think you’re way over-inflating what those type of guys would bring back in a trade.

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2 hours ago, mystikol87 said:

Is the suggestion here that one of the “fringe OFs” + secondary piece(s) would net you a quality big leaguer? No chance. And Ureña has no value. Holloway has next to no value. Guzman looked terrible. I think you’re way over-inflating what those type of guys would bring back in a trade.

Depends what you consider a quality big leaguer, and what position you’re discussing.

These “fringe OF’s” are only fringe on a strong farm system. Misner is a fringe prospect for us, but he would be a top 5-7 prospect for the Redsox or diamondbacks. 

A package of Alfaro, Misner, + Holloway/Urena/Guzman would absolutely be a competitive offer for a guy like Carson Kelly. If anything, it might be an overpay.  
 

Conversely, you could absolutely get a quality reliever for a Misner/Scott + return. 

Edited by marlins_09
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12 hours ago, marlins_09 said:

Depends what you consider a quality big leaguer, and what position you’re discussing.

These “fringe OF’s” are only fringe on a strong farm system. Misner is a fringe prospect for us, but he would be a top 5-7 prospect for the Redsox or diamondbacks. 

A package of Alfaro, Misner, + Holloway/Urena/Guzman would absolutely be a competitive offer for a guy like Carson Kelly. If anything, it might be an overpay.  
 

Conversely, you could absolutely get a quality reliever for a Misner/Scott + return. 

If we’re considering a trade for somebody then why not hit up the cubs about Willson Contreras and Jacob Stallings of the Pirates. I wouldn’t mind packaging Alfaro, Guzman, Misner, Urena, and maybe Holloway/Guzman if it got me Contreras and Jose Martinez? Stallings and Musgrove for the Pirates?

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If we’re really thinking cost effective prospect wise and money wise then the plan is pretty simple.

C- Sign Matt Weiters to a 2-3 mil deal, Keep Wallach on the 40 but move him down

 

2nd- Josh Harrison to a 4 mil deal, Berti can move to a more natural utility role


LF- Jurickson Profar. If he explodes he could offer a big return on a short term deal + he’s a movable piece. Can essentially play anywhere. Move Dickerson to a DH role.

 

RF- Josh Reddick on a 1-2 year deal.


SP- Alex Wood on a price it deal


RP/CL- Ken Giles on a prove it deal

 

No prospects traded, lineup gets more consistent and better, and all can be moved for prospects if our actual prospects emerge.

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30 minutes ago, taiwanmarlin said:

Carson Kelly really that good ? his stats is really bad …

He’s a stud defender who is coming off a down year offensively. Young and controllable and should bounce back offensively. My ideal catching replacements would be 

1. Keibert Ruiz 

2. Carson Kelly 

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On 10/16/2020 at 8:39 PM, marlins_09 said:

He’s a stud defender who is coming off a down year offensively. Young and controllable and should bounce back offensively. My ideal catching replacements would be 

1. Keibert Ruiz 

2. Carson Kelly 

Can't really say he's coming off a down year offensively as he's never even started a full season in his entire MLB career.   he had one season (2019) where he was given 300+ ab's since he came in up 2016 so he's still kinda an unknown overall. It's possible he's amazing and just needs a shot at the fulltime gig but overall he's still a bit of an unknown in terms of what you're going to get offensively. 

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