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2021 Marlins Draft Discussion


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Can anyone explain why you would draft a young player that may end up playing college ball and then you lose him? I don’t get it, I understand you get another pick for it the following year if that happens but why would you want to risk waiting. Why wouldn’t you draft guarantee guys that can come in and make an impact hopefully. Genuinely curious. 

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6 hours ago, Florida Marlins said:

Can anyone explain why you would draft a young player that may end up playing college ball and then you lose him? I don’t get it, I understand you get another pick for it the following year if that happens but why would you want to risk waiting. Why wouldn’t you draft guarantee guys that can come in and make an impact hopefully. Genuinely curious. 

We're going well over slot to sign him most likely so shouldn't be an issue. Only ones that would be even close to guarantees for signing would be college seniors anyways.

The scenario you described happens every year. Not usually in the first round but there are many, many picks that don't end up signing. It happens. If you don't sign him, so be it.

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7 hours ago, Florida Marlins said:

Can anyone explain why you would draft a young player that may end up playing college ball and then you lose him? I don’t get it, I understand you get another pick for it the following year if that happens but why would you want to risk waiting. Why wouldn’t you draft guarantee guys that can come in and make an impact hopefully. Genuinely curious. 

Risk vs reward

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14 hours ago, Florida Marlins said:

Can anyone explain why you would draft a young player that may end up playing college ball and then you lose him? I don’t get it, I understand you get another pick for it the following year if that happens but why would you want to risk waiting. Why wouldn’t you draft guarantee guys that can come in and make an impact hopefully. Genuinely curious. 

Simply put, it's not uncommon for a HS senior drafted in the 10th round to be drafted much higher a few years later. If that kid you drafted in the 10th would've ended up drafted in the 2nd as a college senior, you just got another 2nd round pick essentially

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14 hours ago, Florida Marlins said:

Can anyone explain why you would draft a young player that may end up playing college ball and then you lose him? I don’t get it, I understand you get another pick for it the following year if that happens but why would you want to risk waiting. Why wouldn’t you draft guarantee guys that can come in and make an impact hopefully. Genuinely curious. 

Tbh very hard to get behind baseball’s draft compared to basketball or football. This is one of the reasons. Also the fact these prospects won’t make an immediate impact on the pro team like Tua did with the Fins Or Tyler Herro with the Heat. I think Khalil Watson was a great pick, and it seems everyone is happy with the picks, as am I. But it would just stink to hype up a player you took then lose him possibly to college ball again. There should be a rule where once a player declares for the draft, you can’t go back into college ball. Isn’t that how March Madness and CFB works? My b just hella curious also. 

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1 hour ago, Italian Marlins Fan said:

Tbh very hard to get behind baseball’s draft compared to basketball or football. This is one of the reasons. Also the fact these prospects won’t make an immediate impact on the pro team like Tua did with the Fins Or Tyler Herro with the Heat. I think Khalil Watson was a great pick, and it seems everyone is happy with the picks, as am I. But it would just stink to hype up a player you took then lose him possibly to college ball again. There should be a rule where once a player declares for the draft, you can’t go back into college ball. Isn’t that how March Madness and CFB works? My b just hella curious also. 

Eh...tough to say...as fans you want the guys you draft to play for your team so it irks you if they don't sign - but think about it from their perspective.  If you get drafted towards the end of the draft and are looking at years of A ball and meager paychecks versus getting a free college education with the chance of being drafted higher - which one are you taking?  I think this process is actually a bit more fair to the players, albeit more disappointing for fans (but usually only when a high profile pick doesn't sign). In the end, most of the higher profile guys you are happy about DO get signed. 

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11 hours ago, hovertical said:

Eh...tough to say...as fans you want the guys you draft to play for your team so it irks you if they don't sign - but think about it from their perspective.  If you get drafted towards the end of the draft and are looking at years of A ball and meager paychecks versus getting a free college education with the chance of being drafted higher - which one are you taking?  I think this process is actually a bit more fair to the players, albeit more disappointing for fans (but usually only when a high profile pick doesn't sign). In the end, most of the higher profile guys you are happy about DO get signed. 

I'd say this nails it pretty well. Very few fans will get upset if they hear "12th round pick didn't sign and went to college instead." First round picks almost always sign and that's what most people care about at that point.

2020: All

2019: All

2018: 4 / 43 [guess they included comp balance picks here]

2017: 1 / 36

2016: 1 / 41

2015: 1 / 42

 

You get the idea. 2018 was a very weird outlier. All four were high school players. Of those four, one went to pitch in Japan instead (Carter Stewart, Braves, 8th overall), one went to college and moved up eight spots in this year's draft (worth it, I guess? Matt McLain, 2B), one went backwards (dropped 22 spots, ouch - JT Ginn, RHP), and the final one moved up by 17 spots in this year's draft (Gunnar Hoglund, RHP).

2017, the 1 was Drew Rasmussen who decided to continue his final year of college eligibility and ended up dropping five rounds. lol. Oddly enough he was the 31st overall pick in 2017 by the Rays, then went to the Brewers in the 6th in 2018, and ended up getting traded to the Rays this year.

2016, Nick Lodolo - high school pick - went from a 41st overall pick in 2016 to 7th overall in 2019. That's significant enough I would say. And in 32 innings in AA this year he is carving batters up. He may get arrested soon for that.

2015, Kyle Funkhouser, took his final year of college eligibility and dropped three rounds.

So it's hit and miss for the players too, really. Big risk for them if they don't sign but sometimes it pays off.

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On 7/13/2021 at 6:22 PM, FishFan95 said:

 

i just realized she said he'll be signed but not necessarily by the Marlins - the "could take some time" might mean after he re-enters the draft later on.  Clever play Ng, clever play.

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1 minute ago, SonOfJack said:

Agreed. I doubt they would've taken him unless they were 99.9 percent certain they'd be able to sign him.

Just dont be surprised when him and Mack are the only unsigned picks as we approach the deadline.

 

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56 minutes ago, Das Texan said:

Just dont be surprised when him and Mack are the only unsigned picks as we approach the deadline.

This FO does like to wait until the last minute to do things. Before Ng even joined.

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20 minutes ago, Michael said:

This FO does like to wait until the last minute to do things. Before Ng even joined.

That's not even why.

Its so they know how much money they will have available for those 2 guys out of their allotted amount + 10%.

It's why you only see guys who sign under slot announced at this point tbh. 

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On 7/19/2021 at 12:54 PM, Das Texan said:

That's not even why.

Its so they know how much money they will have available for those 2 guys out of their allotted amount + 10%.

It's why you only see guys who sign under slot announced at this point tbh. 

They can go 0-5% over the allotted amount and only have a tax penalty. If they go over 5%, then they will lose next year's 1st round pick. They will not do this.

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@Fish Fry @SonOfJack @Michael

I decided to move the discussion from the Marte extension thread over to the draft thread where it belongs.

The Marlins total slot pool is $9,949,100. Remember this only applies to guys from the first 10 rounds (unless they sign a guy for more than $125 K after the 10th round- which they won't). So we are liking at the first 11 picks. They can go up to $10,446,555 without losing a future pick. They have already given out $1,150,800 to the picks from rounds 4-9.

This only leaves

  • Watson
  • Joe Mack (CB-A, $2.31 M Slot)
  • Cody Morissette (2nd Rd, $1.4 M Slot)
  • Jordan McCants (3rd Rd, $678.6 K Slot)
  • Hunter Perdue (10th Rd, $145 K Slot)

If they sign everyone else to slot value, then they would be able to go all the way up to $4,762,155 for Watson. I have heard that he is looking for $5 M so we may be able to get him if we can squeeze the other guys to just below their slot values. Either way it will be close and will probably go down to the wire.

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