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FishFan95

Keeping the ball in the yard

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I decided to do a comparison of pitchers on the current staff and in the past who have had good stretches and bad stretches with the Marlins. I looked at their stats to determine what key factors lead to the bad stretches and found a common link. Data to follow.

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Starting with Jarred Cosart's first 10 appearances with the Marlins in 2014 and the following 9 the next year:

 

image.png.b5e2826561ea70d1d0a9db264b239b78.png

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Notice that despite the lower babip, he walked a lot more batters and gave up way more hr.

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Now for Caleb Smith:

image.png.e1c93a02f1336eb5c40b7eb4086202b8.png

image.png.383092c9ee1b0d485a7ec3ecfa00b942.png

image.png.0e0461b62d5e3a60ec3b935a4f71a460.png

From 4 long balls in his first 36 innings to 11 in the next. Not really a huge change in anything else, so the homers are the culprit. Notice only 3 long balls in his last 5 and good results.

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Jose Urena up next:

image.png.a65fad4ce99c0199766e6e37913ef773.png

image.png.6648033d14dac7d23ccaa7f7ed3b0e72.png

In his first 7 starts he gave up 7, but only 3 in his next 6. Jose gives up a lot of hits, but if he can keep it in the yard he is a lot more effective.

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Sandy's up:

image.png.dd3d23c0971b530c09937b24e9ada235.png

image.png.17c5cf0255e53d93023f83b92340ca01.png

He struggled over a 7 start stretch giving up 6 homers, but would you look at that no homers in the next 7 and he dominated.

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Yams did not give up a homer in his first 6 starts:

image.png.111bcbee07afacb2dd3875d3b0dc80e9.png

Unfortunately he has given up 6 in his last 5 starts. Guess how his era looks:

image.png.6e6c541326f5308ad86a490c15d0a96e.png

Not very good.

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Pablo Lopez is a bit of a different case:

image.png.612c4e5e7d7e125fa89b46513b0b1ebe.png

image.png.47da0960a5856ebb2bf986b6cdf78497.png

Sure he gave up 2 more homers in his first 8, but that number does not seem significantly different. Therefore I would say the struggles were due to the insanely high .325 babip which he got down to .240 by pitching more effectively.

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Now for Gallen:

image.png.baa9145e81c9374b62aa26cafdbec05f.png

image.png.6e7a74c47f989b03615946ac5546d19f.png

People may have thought that he had a dominant 7 game stretch before he was traded, but really it was just the first game and the last 3. The three in the middle contributed to the 4.24 era in his first 4. Like Pablo, I would say his struggles were due to hits rather than homers as he has kept the ball in the yard for the most part. However, .180 seems unsustainable.

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Here are the last 3 AL Cy Young award winners. Check out their babips if you think .180 is sustainable:

image.png.1cba9b92dbf92632418103b6739904d9.png

image.png.c5dff0742305144784120505255244cb.png

image.png.8cc440969700df004c69f659fc0239fa.png

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