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Is signing a free agent a waste of time and financial resources?


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Almost always you are overpaying for someone who is on the downside of their career.

Resources would be much better spent trying to hit a lottery ticket through more efficient scouting of international, prospect trades, and draft markets.

Nothing wrong with filling in the gaps with low cost free agents to supplement but signing a large free agent contract is almost always negative expected value.

Arguments and counterarguments are welcome.

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They need to lower club control years to 4 at most, especially if they implement a salary floor.

Guy goes to college and is drafted high, debuts at 23 but it's after a certain point of the year so now he's not a free agent til 30, 31. Drafting team essentially gets a guarantee at most of his prime.

Drop it down to 4 years control, especially without that service time manipulation option, same guy goes to free agency at 27, 28. Much better.

Imagine if Juan Soto was going to be a free agent next year? Holy balls.

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Generally, you're correct.  Though if you structure the contract well enough, you can make it so you get the value out of the player early on, to where the worst part of the contract at the end isn't that much money relatively speaking.

 

And it also applies for the right players, of course.  You don't give Brinson a 10 year 300M deal, but some of the other guys that have gotten them recently, you can do it and not worry about the latter end of the contract.

 

 

The thing for me is, you can't put all the eggs in one basket too.   You cant go ALL international guys, can't go ALL draft, can't go ALL FA signings.  It's a mix and match of each of them that all come together.

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On 8/20/2021 at 3:14 PM, Michael said:

They need to lower club control years to 4 at most, especially if they implement a salary floor.

Guy goes to college and is drafted high, debuts at 23 but it's after a certain point of the year so now he's not a free agent til 30, 31. Drafting team essentially gets a guarantee at most of his prime.

Drop it down to 4 years control, especially without that service time manipulation option, same guy goes to free agency at 27, 28. Much better.

Imagine if Juan Soto was going to be a free agent next year? Holy balls.

That would be terrible for low revenue teams. 6 years of control is fine.  They do need to get rid of the control manipulation loop holes. 

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On 8/20/2021 at 2:14 PM, Michael said:

They need to lower club control years to 4 at most, especially if they implement a salary floor.

Guy goes to college and is drafted high, debuts at 23 but it's after a certain point of the year so now he's not a free agent til 30, 31. Drafting team essentially gets a guarantee at most of his prime.

Drop it down to 4 years control, especially without that service time manipulation option, same guy goes to free agency at 27, 28. Much better.

Imagine if Juan Soto was going to be a free agent next year? Holy balls.

What does that solve other than players getting to free agency sooner.

Players can make plenty in arbitration if they are good enough.

The key is eliminating how service time is manipulated along which prevents free agency for longer and keeps salary lower longer. 

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10 minutes ago, Major-Minor said:

There is no reason to sign anyone next year. They are better off tanking again.

I'll have to disagree with this one, although I entirely get where you're coming from.

Team has shown it can develop starting pitching very well, to a point where we could have a World Series worthy rotation with ample backup at the start of next year. They could and probably should place some of those starters into the bullpen next year as multi-inning high-leverage relievers along with some spot starts - if we have a "bullpen" game next year, I'll feel a LOT more comfortable doing so with guys who can at least piggy-back 3-4 innings each with some success.

With that in mind, the front office must spend and sign players for next year and attempt to get this offense rolling, for the sake of those pitchers (and all of us). So many one and two run losses this year simply because our pitchers have kept us in games.

On top of that, the spending has to occur because they need to give the fans SOME sort of hope for next season. It will be year five of the rebuild with an accidental and lucky playoff run (sorry, guys, I have to call it that at this point). And if not spend, make trades! Use some of that incredible starting pitching depth. That's at such a premium these days, might even be able to do 1-for-1's and get some bats.

Now that the team has more money rolling in from TV and naming rights and other deals coming in along the way, spending has to happen. Fans need a reason to go. The fans will commit to the team if the front office does with sustainability.

I will blame absolutely nobody if they want to jump ship in the offseason if nothing serious happens towards improving this ballclub, and part of that includes the coaching staff. Changes will have to be made. The only coach I would NOT be OK with leaving is Stottlemyre.

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On 8/20/2021 at 2:52 PM, TheMarlinsProject said:

Almost always you are overpaying for someone who is on the downside of their career.

Resources would be much better spent trying to hit a lottery ticket through more efficient scouting of international, prospect trades, and draft markets.

Nothing wrong with filling in the gaps with low cost free agents to supplement but signing a large free agent contract is almost always negative expected value.

Arguments and counterarguments are welcome.

Wanna hit us with a  #Waittosee?

I recognize that argument anywhere and I agree with it.

You should listen to DS's Nothing Personal Podcast.

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20 hours ago, Major-Minor said:

This team is two or more years away from being competitive. 

There is no reason to sign anyone next year. They are better off tanking again. 


100% disagree here, unless the goal is to absolutely kill off what little is left or the fan base, even the diehards.

 

they need some competent/consistent bats in the lineup, and it’s prettt clear we’re not developing those very well.

another year of tanking means another wasted year of this rotation -stupid.  Why bother having a great affordable pitching staff if you’re not going to give it a chance to win?

it’d be absolutely pathetic if they just sit on their hands and say “we don’t expect to score runs” again. 

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48 minutes ago, rmc523 said:


100% disagree here, unless the goal is to absolutely kill off what little is left or the fan base, even the diehards.

 

they need some competent/consistent bats in the lineup, and it’s prettt clear we’re not developing those very well.

another year of tanking means another wasted year of this rotation -stupid.  Why bother having a great affordable pitching staff if you’re not going to give it a chance to win?

it’d be absolutely pathetic if they just sit on their hands and say “we don’t expect to score runs” again. 

Aw, you tl;dr'd my post.

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23 hours ago, Michael said:

I'll have to disagree with this one, although I entirely get where you're coming from.

Team has shown it can develop starting pitching very well, to a point where we could have a World Series worthy rotation with ample backup at the start of next year. They could and probably should place some of those starters into the bullpen next year as multi-inning high-leverage relievers along with some spot starts - if we have a "bullpen" game next year, I'll feel a LOT more comfortable doing so with guys who can at least piggy-back 3-4 innings each with some success.

With that in mind, the front office must spend and sign players for next year and attempt to get this offense rolling, for the sake of those pitchers (and all of us). So many one and two run losses this year simply because our pitchers have kept us in games.

On top of that, the spending has to occur because they need to give the fans SOME sort of hope for next season. It will be year five of the rebuild with an accidental and lucky playoff run (sorry, guys, I have to call it that at this point). And if not spend, make trades! Use some of that incredible starting pitching depth. That's at such a premium these days, might even be able to do 1-for-1's and get some bats.

Now that the team has more money rolling in from TV and naming rights and other deals coming in along the way, spending has to happen. Fans need a reason to go. The fans will commit to the team if the front office does with sustainability.

I will blame absolutely nobody if they want to jump ship in the offseason if nothing serious happens towards improving this ballclub, and part of that includes the coaching staff. Changes will have to be made. The only coach I would NOT be OK with leaving is Stottlemyre.

I just don't see the incentive. From a business standpoint they are proving they can make money without throwing the fanbase a bone.

And who is really out there...especially a bat that with truly impact this lineup? Bryant? Semien?

I'll never quit on the team - I just think they need so much help that they will try to tread water and maybe try to catch lightning with more low risk players...again... because their business model seems to be based on this.

It's the same cycle.

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2 hours ago, rmc523 said:


100% disagree here, unless the goal is to absolutely kill off what little is left or the fan base, even the diehards.

 

they need some competent/consistent bats in the lineup, and it’s prettt clear we’re not developing those very well.

another year of tanking means another wasted year of this rotation -stupid.  Why bother having a great affordable pitching staff if you’re not going to give it a chance to win?

it’d be absolutely pathetic if they just sit on their hands and say “we don’t expect to score runs” again. 

I don't disagree. But really...after all the fire sales and losing years...I can't see how THIS would be the last straw.

We are still posting. The Marlins fan twitter has been hysterical this year. I can't see that suddenly change next year when still do nothing and win 75 games.

 

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31 minutes ago, Major-Minor said:

I don't disagree. But really...after all the fire sales and losing years...I can't see how THIS would be the last straw.

We are still posting. The Marlins fan twitter has been hysterical this year. I can't see that suddenly change next year when still do nothing and win 75 games.

 

It’s the last straw because some of us actually believe that this team is built to win now (pitching). No excuses why they can’t shell out and get some actual hitters.   

If they trade top prospects, that’s it for me.  

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24 minutes ago, QbanCastillo said:

What if they trade top prospects to get good bats that they desperately need?

Sure, if they spend first.  Spending shows you’re committed.  If you play poker and the pot becomes substantial with a good fraction of the pot that is yours, you’re going to back it up and protect it as well.  That means the trades will be just as important and not some PR move  

 

 

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On 8/22/2021 at 5:03 PM, Michael said:

 

I will blame absolutely nobody if they want to jump ship in the offseason if nothing serious happens towards improving this ballclub, and part of that includes the coaching staff. Changes will have to be made. The only coach I would NOT be OK with leaving is Stottlemyre.

oh so NOW its ok to jump ship?

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15 hours ago, 1.618 said:

It’s the last straw because some of us actually believe that this team is built to win now (pitching). No excuses why they can’t shell out and get some actual hitters.   

If they trade top prospects, that’s it for me.  

Yes...ok...but who are they spending on?

They aren't getting anyone who is changing this whole lineup in FA. Also consider that any players they would make moves on would likely require QO compensation...something the Marlins have historically been very protective of...in my opinion this is due to those tight pockets and the monetary value they place on picks.

Their best chance of flipping the script is trading for a hitter. Something I don't trust them to do at all. And even if they hit on the trade...does everyone expect Aguilar to keep this up? Jazz to take another step?  Rojas to play beyond his age?

I said this same thing last offseason on these forums and felt pessimistic. This time I think I'm being reasonable in saying everyone shouldn't have high expectations...this front office has told us this.

I don't trust us as a fanbase to not be reactionary...good or bad. Look no further than BA. He was out half the season with injury and this opened a debate of whether we should upgrade 3rd base. 

The people who were going to leave already left and any of us who are frustrated will just hibernate until they dangle the carrot again. 

 

Edit: What needs to happen if they are going to be at all successful is Bleday and Griffin need to become above average players...at least regional/undertheradar stars.

Jazz and De La Cruz need to be the best or greatest versions of themselves.

Edited by Major-Minor
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8 hours ago, Major-Minor said:

Yes...ok...but who are they spending on?

They aren't getting anyone who is changing this whole lineup in FA. Also consider that any players they would make moves on would likely require QO compensation...something the Marlins have historically been very protective of...in my opinion this is due to those tight pockets and the monetary value they place on picks.

Their best chance of flipping the script is trading for a hitter. Something I don't trust them to do at all. And even if they hit on the trade...does everyone expect Aguilar to keep this up? Jazz to take another step?  Rojas to play beyond his age?

I said this same thing last offseason on these forums and felt pessimistic. This time I think I'm being reasonable in saying everyone shouldn't have high expectations...this front office has told us this.

I don't trust us as a fanbase to not be reactionary...good or bad. Look no further than BA. He was out half the season with injury and this opened a debate of whether we should upgrade 3rd base. 

The people who were going to leave already left and any of us who are frustrated will just hibernate until they dangle the carrot again. 

 

Edit: What needs to happen if they are going to be at all successful is Bleday and Griffin need to become above average players...at least regional/undertheradar stars.

Jazz and De La Cruz need to be the best or greatest versions of themselves.

I agree with most of this.  I have very little trust after the Marte trade and the rumored, Max for Marsh flip.   I don’t think the FO has much of a clue on how to build a team at certain heights.  They did well starting from the floor up but now, it’s showing its ceiling when you don’t spend a bit. 

Trading Marte in a package deal with prospects for a stud bat would have been huge. Now we will trade a top prospect & more for that debacle.  Imagine piecing a true catcher or 3B of the future like they should have for Marte, then sign a couple bats and all of a sudden, it’s a deep competitive roster. 

The only ounce of hope I have left with this FO is them not trading Miggy.  

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On 8/23/2021 at 5:31 PM, Major-Minor said:

I don't disagree. But really...after all the fire sales and losing years...I can't see how THIS would be the last straw.

We are still posting. The Marlins fan twitter has been hysterical this year. I can't see that suddenly change next year when still do nothing and win 75 games.

 

Because this new ownership group was supposed to come in here and do things differently.  Which they have as far as international spending, draft spending, etc.  So we now want them to take that next step and now spend at the major league level to add to what they've built in the farm.  But if they don't.....and it's more of the same spending wise, why should I want to support as much.  I'm not expecting Dodgers spending, just something that gets us to midpack or so.

I'm not going to completely disappear or renounce my fandom or anything ridiculous like that, but I certainly won't be inclined to watch every day - catch a game here and there, check in, etc.

 

On 8/24/2021 at 8:10 AM, Major-Minor said:

Yes...ok...but who are they spending on?

They aren't getting anyone who is changing this whole lineup in FA. Also consider that any players they would make moves on would likely require QO compensation...something the Marlins have historically been very protective of...in my opinion this is due to those tight pockets and the monetary value they place on picks.

Their best chance of flipping the script is trading for a hitter. Something I don't trust them to do at all. And even if they hit on the trade...does everyone expect Aguilar to keep this up? Jazz to take another step?  Rojas to play beyond his age?

I said this same thing last offseason on these forums and felt pessimistic. This time I think I'm being reasonable in saying everyone shouldn't have high expectations...this front office has told us this.

I don't trust us as a fanbase to not be reactionary...good or bad. Look no further than BA. He was out half the season with injury and this opened a debate of whether we should upgrade 3rd base. 

The people who were going to leave already left and any of us who are frustrated will just hibernate until they dangle the carrot again. 

 

Edit: What needs to happen if they are going to be at all successful is Bleday and Griffin need to become above average players...at least regional/undertheradar stars.

Jazz and De La Cruz need to be the best or greatest versions of themselves.

Somehow resigning Marte would be a good start.

 

They can/should do both signing and trading to acquire guys.

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