Hot Stove (2021-2022 offseason)

[Erick]

11 hours ago, Das Texan said:

Wrong.

You need Carlos Rodon as that will cause me to stfu with my criticism of this miserly ownership group.

tbh.

 

Oh and Merry Christmas! 

All kidding aside, we don’t need Rodon. We need that money to be spent on hitters instead. 

[MarlinsLou]

2 minutes ago, Erick said:

All kidding aside, we don’t need Rodon. We need that money to be spent on hitters instead. 

It depends. Blow out Pablo and Meyer for 2 bats, and getting 150-200 innings becomes more important with what money is left, etc. I'm not sure Rodon is the guy as he is hard to peg on a contract, but many scenarios exist where it makes sense to buy innings versus bats. I though, would certainly take a shot on Rodon with his upside. Hard to top that if the price isn't outrageous.

Big picture, they have done an overall pretty excellent job (sans Yelich deal) the last 4 years. It's time to finish the job and if they don't, it's about money not winning. They are never going to be in a better position to contend than right now with all these years of control with the kids and guys on the upswing, so confidence in the front office moves quickly to -0- if nothing major happens. I think they are going to step up (in a non-Correa/Bryant/Story/Rodon way) and build a team we all can get behind, but they need to be held to a championship level standard right now. Ordinary fans may think that is laughable considering the W/L last year (and previous decade), but they are genuinely 3-5 players away from being really really really good, and only two of those guys need to be studs. They have all the assets and payroll to make this happen and it's an embarrassment if it doesn't.

Imagine Baltimore or Seattle or Texas or San Francisco had this team right now (let alone someone like Anaheim). They'd be adding $100m to it and expecting to make the playoffs. They'd all be signing Correa, Bryant, and Rodon, and then trading excess bats/arms for luxury relievers. And they'd be right. And here we are hoping they add $25-30m bucks and trade 1-2 really good pitchers to get to a minimum level of where they need to be. 

It's a broken record, but they need to put up or shut up and if they don't, go Panthers.

[Daddy Dix]

2 hours ago, MarlinsLou said:

It's a broken record, but they need to put up or shut up and if they don't, go Panthers.

So if they DO...then you hate on the Panthers?!  daaang

 

Why can't you love both?

[Das Texan]

3 hours ago, Erick said:

All kidding aside, we don’t need Rodon. We need that money to be spent on hitters instead. 

All kidding aside, the Marlins need a veteran starter to bolster the rotation honestly.

And be greedy.   Like winning teams are. 

[Das Texan]

3 hours ago, MarlinsLou said:

I

[b]Imagine Baltimore or Seattle or Texas or San Francisco had this team right now (let alone someone like Anaheim). They'd be adding $100m to it and expecting to make the playoffs. They'd all be signing Correa, Bryant, and Rodon, and then trading excess bats/arms for luxury relievers. And they'd be right. And here we are hoping they add $25-30m bucks and trade 1-2 really good pitchers to get to a minimum level of where they need to be.  [/b]

 

Jerry Dipoto is going to do exactly this.  They have a different type of wealth, but they are absoulutely all in and I will not be surprised if they sign another premier free agent when this is all said and done. 

[TaiwanMarlins]

3 hours ago, MarlinsLou said:

It's a broken record, but they need to put up or shut up and if they don't, go Panthers.

I believe everything is possible after the end of the lockout, the stoppage period would giving this ownership many time to think about what a team they really want to have in the next season. 

[MarlinsLou]

1 hour ago, Das Texan said:

All kidding aside, the Marlins need a veteran starter to bolster the rotation honestly.

And be greedy.   Like winning teams are. 

To bring it back to baseball... do they need an arm if they do nothing at the MLB level? They need 1440 innings next year:

Sandy - 200 (can do more if hes effective)
Rogers - 170 (this should prob be his regular season innings limit)
Pablo - 160 (him too, he can probably handle another few starts though if effective and healthy)
Luzardo - 140 (prob can do more if effective, but let's assume 25+ starts cut short for waves of relievers)
Cabrera - 125 (prob should be on an innings limit)
Elisier - 125 (he can probably handle more, but I'm imagining a bulk reliever/sometimes starter)
Floro - 70
Bender - 70
Bleier - 60
Pop - 60
Head - 50
Okert - 50
= 1280 IP, over 12 guys (so one more arm availability for an active roster).

Importantly Sixto isn't listed above (and Bass but who cares). He's probably like Cabrera and should have a 125 IP limit. If he's also used in a bulk/multi inning fashion to stretch him out over the season (basically Luzardo/Sixto and Cabrera/Elisier are your 4 and 5th starters and first reliever being used each game, which makes sense innings wise), they are basically at a reasonable expectation of innings for the year spreading out another 30+ innings over everyone. To note, I maintain Sixto/Cabrera should be brought along like Johan Santana. Relievers for April-May, stretch out in June, and let them rip in July. But that's another story.

Of course, guys get hurt, so Neidert/Poteet/Holloway/Garrett crew is a pretty good arm core to help after this. And you can do a deadline deal if Sandy/Rogers get hurt and you are still a contender.

I'm comfortable here for opening day. I'd want them to find 125+ innings in a veteran starter if they trade Pablo/Elisier/Cabrera/Sixto/Luzardo. If anything, I'd sign a lefty reliever, or, if they do something like trade for Ketel Marte, get Caleb Smith in the deal and he can certainly handle some bulk reliever innings.

It keeps going back to - they have most of the team ready to go. Finish the job before opening day.

[Erick]

2 hours ago, Das Texan said:

All kidding aside, the Marlins need a veteran starter to bolster the rotation honestly.

And be greedy.   Like winning teams are. 

Carlos Rodon wouldn’t be a target of mine for this.

He’s going to get a nice payday coming off a career year for a guy who has mostly not thrown strikes in his career. Even last year, he ended up giving 132.2 innings so he’s not exactly the veteran innings eater you’re looking for in this role.

You better believe he’s an absolute stud moving forward if you’re paying him. I think we already have a similar guy, stuff wise, in Luzardo. 
 

I would want more stability/more of a veteran presence type if we’re spending money on a SP.

[TheMarlinsProject]

Re: Rodon

Obviously you should be tripping all over yourself to sign a +5.0 WAR guy.

Problem is, that was last year, and there is no way of knowing what he will put up this year.

He's 29 so on the top of the downslope of his projected career bell curve.

I'm still bitter we picked Kolek over him in 2014.  Epic  failure and magnified when you think we got the #2 and #6 guys in that draft as complete busts most likely when a coin flip would have been a favorite to turn out immensely better.

 

Don't think we'll get Rodon, don't think we need him.  Won't hate it if we do though.

[TaiwanMarlins]

 

[TaiwanMarlins]

Maybe we're the bottom five team to sign the best FAs but we're also the top five team to acquire the best players via trades, I mean, maybe we can't spending CRAZY but we sure can trading CRAZY !!!

[TaiwanMarlins]

Dream about Kershaw ?

[Michael]

2 hours ago, taiwanmarlin said:

Dream about Kershaw ?

Too many injuries lately.

[SilverBullet]

5 hours ago, taiwanmarlin said:

Dream about Kershaw ?

They're your dreams, nobody can stop you from dreaming about whatever you want. 

[Das Texan]

23 hours ago, Erick said:

Carlos Rodon wouldn’t be a target of mine for this.

He’s going to get a nice payday coming off a career year for a guy who has mostly not thrown strikes in his career. Even last year, he ended up giving 132.2 innings so he’s not exactly the veteran innings eater you’re looking for in this role.

You better believe he’s an absolute stud moving forward if you’re paying him. I think we already have a similar guy, stuff wise, in Luzardo. 
 

I would want more stability/more of a veteran presence type if we’re spending money on a SP.

Like I said if you want to win, you go get greedy.

 

If not Rodon some other established veteran starter you can plug into a rotation that is already a strength.  Along with a bat.

Greed.

Go win, seize what is a very real opporutnity.  

Anything less is really not a commitement to winning. 

[TaiwanMarlins]

 

[TaiwanMarlins]

 

[Fotog]

On 12/24/2021 at 10:01 AM, MarlinsLou said:

It depends. Blow out Pablo and Meyer for 2 bats, and getting 150-200 innings becomes more important with what money is left, etc. I'm not sure Rodon is the guy as he is hard to peg on a contract, but many scenarios exist where it makes sense to buy innings versus bats. I though, would certainly take a shot on Rodon with his upside. Hard to top that if the price isn't outrageous.

Big picture, they have done an overall pretty excellent job (sans Yelich deal) the last 4 years. It's time to finish the job and if they don't, it's about money not winning. They are never going to be in a better position to contend than right now with all these years of control with the kids and guys on the upswing, so confidence in the front office moves quickly to -0- if nothing major happens. I think they are going to step up (in a non-Correa/Bryant/Story/Rodon way) and build a team we all can get behind, but they need to be held to a championship level standard right now. Ordinary fans may think that is laughable considering the W/L last year (and previous decade), but they are genuinely 3-5 players away from being really really really good, and only two of those guys need to be studs. They have all the assets and payroll to make this happen and it's an embarrassment if it doesn't.

Imagine Baltimore or Seattle or Texas or San Francisco had this team right now (let alone someone like Anaheim). They'd be adding $100m to it and expecting to make the playoffs. They'd all be signing Correa, Bryant, and Rodon, and then trading excess bats/arms for luxury relievers. And they'd be right. And here we are hoping they add $25-30m bucks and trade 1-2 really good pitchers to get to a minimum level of where they need to be. 

It's a broken record, but they need to put up or shut up and if they don't, go Panthers.

I'm still skeptical....I haven't seen enough to make me think they want to win. Right now this team is a 73/75 max win team....and it'll be a boring 73/75 wins....this team has nothing to get excited about & put fannies in the seats....and watch them win 75 and blame the fans for not coming out, so they'll say "we just can;t spend unless the public comes out. It's a scam, and they're masters of it...no intentions of winning, just skating by

Edited December 27, 2021 by Fotog

[el_gmac]

On 12/25/2021 at 8:21 AM, taiwanmarlin said:

Dream about Kershaw ?

tell us more about this dream of yours and don't leave any specifics out 

[MarlinsLou]

9 hours ago, Fotog said:

I'm still skeptical....I haven't seen enough to make me think they want to win. Right now this team is a 73/75 max win team....and it'll be a boring 73/75 wins....this team has nothing to get excited about & put fannies in the seats....and watch them win 75 and blame the fans for not coming out, so they'll say "we just can;t spend unless the public comes out. It's a scam, and they're masters of it...no intentions of winning, just skating by

They'll definitely be better than 75, but they have no shot at 85+ wins which is likely the minimum they'll need.

Also, they'll be boring if you like offense, but they have arguably the best young pitching in baseball so that will be fun for many. The current staff is projecting over 18+ WAR for next year (Steamer still including Thompson on Fangraphs, but Cabrera is only listed for 57 innings so I'm just doubling him to net it out, etc.). I think they are being undersold also. For instance, Sandy/Rogers/Pablo had 10.7 WAR last year in 440 IP, but their projection for 2022 is 520 IP and 10 WAR. There is major upside there. Likewise, the bullpen was 5+ WAR last year, and projecting as 2.5+ WAR this year. Some upside in an extra win or two is there. Alternatively, they are giving Elisier/Sixto/Luzardo/Cabrera/Meyer a combined 400+ innings and over 5+ WAR which is likely optimistic so maybe that negates some of the lower projections on the other two buckets of players above and this is a wash, but frankly, that's 4 former/current top 40 prospects and Elisier is pretty solid. There is (major) upside with those 5 guys and if one of them breaks out into a # 3 SP or elite reliever, watch out. This is projecting as a top 10 staff as a FLOOR with top 3-5 upside.

For perspective, these teams had 18+ WAR pitching staffs last year, and the parenthesis are their win totals: CHW (93), LAD (106), MIL (95), NYY (92), SF (107), BOS (92), TB (100). That's it. The next five teams, Philly (17.9 WAR, 82 W), Hou (16.9 WAR, 95 W), NYM (16.4 WAR, 77 W), Cin (16.2 WAR, 83 W), and ATL (16 WAR, 88 W).

Granted, offense/defense counts and most of those teams can hit. Unsurprisingly, the worst three position player cores were NYM, PHI, and CIN (both 18-19 WAR range for position players).

So where does that leave them. I'm assuming these 9 guys are 8 of their main starting players and top bench player (I think the DH is coming) - Stallings, Aguilar, Jazz, Rojas, Anderson, Sanchez, Garcia, Cooper, and Wendle. They are currently projected for 14.5+ WAR. Which, is interesting for a few reasons. (1) They need another 5+ WAR minimum as I have been saying for a month. This gets them above PHI/NYM/CIN 2021 squads, and then you are crossing your fingers for break outs from Sixto/Luzardo/Cabrera/Jazz/Sanchez to put them over the top. (2) Steamer hates the Marlins bats with that 14.5+. Rojas is protected for 2.2 WAR, but has paced over 3+ WAR for 3 seasons. Anderson has paced 3+ WAR for his career but they have him at 1.6. He was really hurt. He's not half as good. Avisail is at 2.2 WAR, but he did a 2.9 last year and his statcast numbers are great. He may be a moderate in his prime bloomer. Jazz is at 1.9 and Sanchez 1.5 and they could each easily smoke those. Cooper and Wendle are a combined 1.5 and they did over 3 last year. The bat projections feel very light to me and this could easily tick up 3-5, plus a Jazz/Sanchez/Garcia breakout into 3+ WAR players. I think it's fair to say they are probably very similar to 2021 NYM/PHI/CIN right now, as they have slightly better pitching, and a slightly worse offense.

Which brings us back to, all roads lead to getting an absolute stud at CF at all costs. Money, prospects, moving Pablo and then replacing him with verifiably FA innings to net out the production. They need to get an absolute monster CF, or be very creative and do something like Bryant/Correa for 3B/SS and shuffle Anderson elsewhere in a CF/P package. It's why going for broke for Ketel Marte with the farm system makes complete sense because you can get him without Pablo with Meyer/Watson, and then fill out the team with 2-4 other upgrades (Ca. Smith for bullpen in that deal, spend on a luxury reliever over Pop/Head, reserve payroll for a deadline deal and actually do it to improve June 20th and not July 31st, etc.).

Or act like any other franchise not named Tampa and sign Correa/Bryant on top of getting Ketel in a Meyer/Watson deal, and all of a sudden, you project as a top 8 staff and offense (90+ win team) at a bottom 10 payroll with clear as hell books in front of you. And that's with NO breakouts from Sixto/Cabrera/Luzardo/Jazz/Sanchez/Garcia/Bleday. Which is why it is going to be INFURIATING if they don't do shit as everything is aligned for them to go on a 4 year tear right now.

I agree with you in full though, that the narrative of we can't spend until people come out is tired. What business would ever say, I'll start making better bread if I get more customers. 

[Das Texan]

Look if this team actually grew some balls, stopped crying poverty and went and signed a Carlos Correa, I'd be fine with them even experimenting with Jazz in CF this spring, or using De La Cruz there or whomever else.

 

I still think they would be wise to sign some veteran starter and another piece for the back end of the bullpen, but hey, item 1 is the top priority.

 

The back end of the bullpen piece is relatively easy to find in a sense, there are no elite closers on the market at this point they should really be into, but bullpen pieces are the easiest and cheapest to find.  If they dont work out, you shrug your shoulders and acquire others at hte deadline when you are hopefully in it.

Bullpens are the easiest to fix year over year.

[MarlinsLou]

1 minute ago, Das Texan said:

Look if this team actually grew some balls, stopped crying poverty and went and signed a Carlos Correa, I'd be fine with them even experimenting with Jazz in CF this spring, or using De La Cruz there or whomever else.

 

I still think they would be wise to sign some veteran starter and another piece for the back end of the bullpen, but hey, item 1 is the top priority.

 

The back end of the bullpen piece is relatively easy to find in a sense, there are no elite closers on the market at this point they should really be into, but bullpen pieces are the easiest and cheapest to find.  If they dont work out, you shrug your shoulders and acquire others at hte deadline when you are hopefully in it.

Bullpens are the easiest to fix year over year.

If they sign Correa as the big move, it becomes a lot easier with oomph production in one spot. For instance:
 

1 - You accept Correa wants to play SS (he is phenomenal so who cares, sorry Rojas), and Rojas/Wendle becomes your 3B platoon. Or try Jazz there, and they are the 2B platoon. Whatever. Let performance figure it out. It's an unconventional 3B situation, but you do it for a superstar.

2 - You call Tampa and absorb Keirmaier's salary for nothing. Outside top 25 prospects. He is an excellent starter against right handers, and dabble with Garcia/DLC in CF the other 80 games and KK comes in as a consistent defensive replacements 6th-8th inning when needed.

3 - You trade/DFA one of Aguilar, Cooper, or Anderson. I'd actually ditch Aguilar to save $$$ (see below), and let Anderson (he can do it) and Cooper platoon at 1B, and your primary DH is the other.

Stallings, Fortes/Jackson
Anderson, Cooper 
Jazz
Correa, Berti
Rojas, Wendle
Sanchez, DLC
Keirmaier
Garcia

You look at that and it's screaming upgrade Berti, but you can roll with that opening day and god-willingly, Bleday sets the world on fire and that's an easy swap as you still have triple redundancy for 2B/SS/3B moves (plus move to DH makes that less important game to game). Correa and Keirmaier add 7+ WAR to the team, and payroll is under $100m if you ditch Aguilar.

4 - You use Cabrera and Sixto in the bullpen day 1, and that's your upgrade. Screw worrying about replacement starters, you have Neidert/Poteet/Garrett/Holloway in AAA, and can stretch out guys as things go along. I believe the smartest thing to do with Cabrera/Sixto is put them on the two year Johan Santana program. Relievers April-May and then stretch them out. They should only be throwing 125 innings next year in the regular season. Elisier and Luzardo you can let rip.

Sandy, Rogers, Pablo, Elisier, Luzardo
Floro, Bender, Cabrera, Sixto, Bass, Pop/Head
Bleier, Okert

I'd figure out how to get rid of Bass and replace with a better lefty, but that's all I'd do and that's minor.

 

Under $100 million and the only free agents are Keirmaier and Bleier.... which also removes $14m+ in payroll for 2023 which pays for everyone's arbitration raises (Stallings, Anderson, Cooper, Wendle, Pablo, Elisier, Luzardo, Floro) so absolutely nothing changes for a year. Well, except adding MEYER and BLEDAY to that. But that's a GOOD change.

And you still have 2+ major prospects/players to trade for a young CF (and catcher if needed). 

 

I'm going to keep on this war path to install in everyone the narrative that the Marlins front office is a failure if they don't go for it.

[Admin]

3 minutes ago, MarlinsLou said:

I'm going to keep on this war path to install in everyone the narrative that the Marlins front office is a failure if they don't go for it.

Surprises me when people don't agree with this.

[Michael]

19 minutes ago, SonOfJack said:

Surprises me when people don't agree with this.

Wow you're such a front office shill.

[SilverBullet]

6 hours ago, MarlinsLou said:

I'm going to keep on this war path to install in everyone the narrative that the Marlins front office is a failure if they don't go for it.

Are you gonna install this or instill it in us? And if it's gonna be an installation are you gonna use a CD or maybe use a USB drive?