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5/1 vs Mariners - 1:40 PM


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Marlins face Logan Gilbert today and he has the lowest ERA in the American League. But it is a bit of a quandary. Sure he has a slightly higher than average K rate and lower than average BB rate, but he is giving up some hard contact. His Statcast HardHit% is 46.6%. That is more than 10% worse than MLB average. This has led to a higher than average exit velo. And they are not just on the ground. His flyball and line drive rate are worse than MLB average. It has led to the odd scenario where his hard hit rate and line drive rate are worse than last year, but his BAbip against is nearly 50 points lower. Me thinks that he is playing with fire and getting lucky. Good BAbip luck for him. Line drives right at guys etc. This is not sustainable. He will give up a bunch of runs at some point. Hopefully it is today.

Also another thing that I saw was despite having a better than average K rate, he has a lower percentile whiff% and chase rate. According to Mariners SB Nation it looks like he generates a lot of foul balls and so I guess he wears guys down with that.


Here's an article that you can read about him that was written before the season:


Edited by FishFan95
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