The Fire Kim Ng Thread

[marlins_09]

I made a New Years resolution to be proactive, so here you go. 

Kim was handed a roster packed full of SP assets and had 1 job; fix the offense. She botched the Starlin Marte deal, replaced Adam Duvall with 2 Adam Duvalls, and has yet to make a meaningful deal to “enter the competitive window”. 

The roster management last year was pitiful with essentially 2 bullpen games every 5 days. This is basic, entry level roster management stuff. 

I did like the trade with Baltimore to acquire Scott and Sulser. That’s about the nicest thing I can say so far. 

Never thought I’d say this, but we’d be better off with Michael Hill. 

[SongInTheAir]

Let's not forget that with Soler's extremely player friendly contract, the worse he does, the more likely he is to stay for two more seasons. 

[MarlinsLou]

I'd rather have Luzardo, but there is certainly much else to criticize like not getting another bat upgrade for CF with prospect depth.

That being said, they are going to lose games and opening 12-11 is extremely good even with the lows. The sky was falling, then they won 7 in a row, and the sky is falling again. Some of you all need to chill. Three of their best 13 pitchers are in the minors (Floro, Meyer, Cabrera) and BABIPS correct. It's 23 games. That is nothing.

[Sherman shill]

I'm on board 100% with getting rid of her. Shes failed at making many of the no brainer moves and has seem overmatched at doing the job itself as evident she can't seem to focus on more than one thing at a time. She's been incredibly underwhelming for all the hype.

[TaiwanMarlins]

Fire her if she do nothing to improve the roster in this month. 

[Michael]

I wanted to say give her some time but like @hovertical said, she can't seem to do more than one thing.

We can't get relievers because we're focusing on center fielders? Oh, OK.

Wait we didn't get a center fielder? Crap, OK. Wait, all the relievers are gone? Well, crap. [To her credit she got two decent ones at the last second.]

Avi Garcia? Oh, OK. That's alright. Wait, Soler too? ... But why?

[Erick]

She hasn’t done a terrible job. The bullpen, for example, is all undervalued assets acquired by her.

The main one who needs to go is Mattingly. I normally don’t like to criticize managers since I think it’s better to have stability in the role. But it’s been a long time now, and he makes too many silly decisions that are worth criticizing at this point. 

[Iowa]

Last year's roster mgmt was enough to agree with this post.. Soler and Garcia contracts this year and sticking with don makes it obvious.  Fucking embarrassing. This rotation should make it the easiest job in baseball. 

[Iowa]

1 hour ago, MarlinsLou said:

I'd rather have Luzardo, but there is certainly much else to criticize like not getting another bat upgrade for CF with prospect depth.

That being said, they are going to lose games and opening 12-11 is extremely good even with the lows. The sky was falling, then they won 7 in a row, and the sky is falling again. Some of you all need to chill. Three of their best 13 pitchers are in the minors (Floro, Meyer, Cabrera) and BABIPS correct. It's 23 games. That is nothing.

I get what youre saying but were 12-11 because of the schedule and luck. Anybody with eyes knew soler and garcia were garbage.. and the fact we gave them multiple years is insane. We will back into 72 wins because of the rotation. They should have gave the money to a real hitter like bryant or castillanos. 

[rmc523]

1 hour ago, MarlinsLou said:

I'd rather have Luzardo, but there is certainly much else to criticize like not getting another bat upgrade for CF with prospect depth.

That being said, they are going to lose games and opening 12-11 is extremely good even with the lows. The sky was falling, then they won 7 in a row, and the sky is falling again. Some of you all need to chill. Three of their best 13 pitchers are in the minors (Floro, Meyer, Cabrera) and BABIPS correct. It's 23 games. That is nothing.

Except we've seen all the obnoxiously evident holes that existed at the beginning of the offseason still exist and show themselves.  And they weren't addressed, or were addressed with meh "upgrades".  And while things will likely even out (in the positive and negative directions for various players), I still think they'll be at best a .500 team, when you add all the holes together plus Mattingly at the helm.  And while a great improvement over last year, it's not enough, especially considering they left so many big FA upgrade options on the table.  What are we going to hope they sign Correa again next year if he opts out?

 

4 minutes ago, Erick said:

She hasn’t done a terrible job. The bullpen, for example, is all undervalued assets acquired by her.

The main one who needs to go is Mattingly. I normally don’t like to criticize managers since I think it’s better to have stability in the role. But it’s been a long time now, and he makes too many silly decisions that are worth criticizing at this point. 

 

She has seemingly done well on the deals she does strike.  The problem is, as others have pointed out, that multiple things can't seem to be done at once, which winds up with us missing out on multiple options because they come off the board while Ng is "evaluating" things.

[Iowa]

6 minutes ago, rmc523 said:

Except we've seen all the obnoxiously evident holes that existed at the beginning of the offseason still exist and show themselves.  And they weren't addressed, or were addressed with meh "upgrades".  And while things will likely even out (in the positive and negative directions for various players), I still think they'll be at best a .500 team, when you add all the holes together plus Mattingly at the helm.  And while a great improvement over last year, it's not enough, especially considering they left so many big FA upgrade options on the table.  What are we going to hope they sign Correa again next year if he opts out?

 

 

She has seemingly done well on the deals she does strike.  The problem is, as others have pointed out, that multiple things can't seem to be done at once, which winds up with us missing out on multiple options because they come off the board while Ng is "evaluating" things.

Worst part is.. same shit. We always do some things right, but never do it fully. The nick johnson year is example #1. Multiple instances since. So frustrating. If i wasnt so used to it, id be pissed off more

[UnitFox]

Kim has a done a great job getting Luzardo, Wendle, Stallings, almost all the relievers she's brought in have been gold. 

Kim has missed so far* on Garcia and Soler. Soler hit 47 hrs in 2019 and has power. Garcia is one that she knew was probably a gamble since he's had some very mediocre seasons.

Overall a solid B. At least we're not giving away yelich for nothing any more. 

Edited May 4, 2022 by UnitFox

[MarlinsLou]

11 hours ago, Iowa said:

I get what youre saying but were 12-11 because of the schedule and luck. Anybody with eyes knew soler and garcia were garbage.. and the fact we gave them multiple years is insane. We will back into 72 wins because of the rotation. They should have gave the money to a real hitter like bryant or castillanos. 

They aren't 12-11 from luck. They have a positive run differential and are 5-6 in 1 Run/EX games. They just won 7 in a row. This is going exactly as we could have hoped - random SP gems with occasional bat explosions and that keeps them around .500. I'll take the over on 72. The pitching and plus offensive games are a high 70s floor.

I disagree about Soler and Garcia, their contracts aren't the issue. They don't make much. In the grand scheme of things, a $12m/year player is not expensive and I refuse to hold them to a different cheap standard than a normal team, e.g. this is a Bruce issue with payroll not a Ng issue. Likewise, Garcia has excellent statcast/hard hit rates and plays excellent defense. He's in his prime and should be alright (I cannot explain the BB/K right now but it's a 23 game SSS). Soler has immense potential based on 2019/post-2021 with his 2021 BABAIP being overall very low. He's also in contract year motivation. He's fine and a paper upgrade to Aguilar/Cooper at DH. I'd rather have either of them at their prices than Castellanos at $100. It's a better deal for a player that shouldn't be that much worse. We'll see what happens though. On paper these are fine in a vacuum.....

....but the problem is which we've all discussed ad nauseam, if you commit to Garcia and Soler, they should have jettisoned Aguilar or Cooper and used that roster spot for something more useful. Which is effectively, a CF, 1B, or maybe 3B upgrade. This is where we can all scream CORREA (and just move Anderson/Rojas/Wendle around 3B and IF backups) if you want to make the "real free agent hitter" argument.... but is that also Ng's fault, or does this go back to payroll limitations and obviously he's expensive so we are back to Bruce being cheap. 

I fault her for:

1 - Hoarding prospects and not getting a CF. This is a get the pitchforks level event. Sanchez is below average defensively (and is actually the "worst' statcast rated fielder in CF right now, however, that is misleading as he isn't that bad and is pacing for around 12-15 outs below average right now which isn't earth shattering if he hits). They need a longterm CF (or someone who can play CF longterm well enough if Sanchez gets hurt). Very badly. It's insane it hasn't happened with their depth.

2 - The redundancy of Soler/Aguilar/Cooper who should only be playing 1B/DH. This goes back to # 1 - they need a CF and to kick one of Aguilar/Cooper off the team at minimum. That really balances out the team and improves things all over.

3 - And from your other post - Don. He makes baffling decisions. If they are going to focus on SP/RP in waves, and have to play "splits" for RHP/LHP, they need a new-school analytically approached manager who can take advantage of this and Don is just not that right now. I also don't know this is fireable even if frustrating, as ultimately, guys need to hit and pitch and a lot of them are not doing it. That's not Don's fault even if weird bullpen moves are.

And that's really it. # 1 can be solved today and DLC gets kicked to AAA, and they can handle the bat redundancy until late June/July if the need to make a push. Henry/Berti need to be upgraded with guys who hit lefties, but that's a July thing. Don isn't the make/break factor for the playoffs, but he shouldn't be extended further.

Big picture - payroll needs to go up so they can sign a "Correa" next year, as well as have confidence there is payroll to sign stopgaps so they can trade prospects for easily for a CF.  Ultimately, I'd say 90% of the problem is Bruce. Give Ng "below league average" resources ($40m+ more in payroll) and I bet the roster would look a lot better.

 

Listen - I am at grab the pitchforks for the CF, I get it. We have MANY things to bitch about, but a 3 game skid after winning 7 isn't it. This is a fantastic start and things should level out offensively. But they are going nowhere but .500 until they get the upgrades I (and most others here) have been bitching about since November. 

11 hours ago, rmc523 said:

Except we've seen all the obnoxiously evident holes that existed at the beginning of the offseason still exist and show themselves.  And they weren't addressed, or were addressed with meh "upgrades".  And while things will likely even out (in the positive and negative directions for various players), I still think they'll be at best a .500 team, when you add all the holes together plus Mattingly at the helm.  And while a great improvement over last year, it's not enough, especially considering they left so many big FA upgrade options on the table.  What are we going to hope they sign Correa again next year if he opts out?

She has seemingly done well on the deals she does strike.  The problem is, as others have pointed out, that multiple things can't seem to be done at once, which winds up with us missing out on multiple options because they come off the board while Ng is "evaluating" things.

Yes it's .500 at best until they make the big CF trade, and then we have to hope for a catch lightning deadline like the Braves. That's the model they choose for 2022 because Bruce is cheap AF.

We can hope the SP is so good this year that Bruce realizes what he has so he makes that plunge for a star bat, and then they get a second one with the pitching trade. That becomes a real interesting team real fast.

[Sherman shill]

5 minutes ago, MarlinsLou said:

They aren't 12-11 from luck. They have a positive run differential and are 5-6 in 1 Run/EX games. They just won 7 in a row. This is going exactly as we could have hoped - random SP gems with occasional bat explosions and that keeps them around .500. I'll take the over on 72. The pitching and plus offensive games are a high 70s floor.

Really curious what you were saying last year too when they had a positive run differential but were like 12 games under .500.  They have a positive run differential due to the occasional power games when the piles of shit we have in the lineup actually hit for a night or two and they drop 8-10 runs.  The rest of the time if we're down 3-0 it feels like we're down 8-0 because they can't actually get hits and move guys.  A positive run differential is not always a sign of a good team and that's clearly evident with this team. they get the occasional blowout wins and then when they lose it's usually by only 1 or 2 runs. This is the SAME offense as last year and as the season wears on, if they don't make changes, they're going to end up around 70-75 wins and have wasted yet another year of young pitching talent.

 

5 minutes ago, MarlinsLou said:

I disagree about Soler and Garcia, their contracts aren't the issue. They don't make much. In the grand scheme of things, a $12m/year player is not expensive and I refuse to hold them to a different cheap standard than a normal team, e.g. this is a Bruce issue with payroll not a Ng issue. Likewise, Garcia has excellent statcast/hard hit rates and plays excellent defense. He's in his prime and should be alright (I cannot explain the BB/K right now but it's a 23 game SSS). Soler has immense potential based on 2019/post-2021 with his 2021 BABAIP being overall very low. He's also in contract year motivation. He's fine and a paper upgrade to Aguilar/Cooper at DH. I'd rather have either of them at their prices than Castellanos at $100. It's a better deal for a player that shouldn't be that much worse. We'll see what happens though.

Man, if you think they aren't viewing both Garcia and Soler as high priced FA signings you're being awfully naive.  To this group, they make a LOT of money and this is why they will continue to give them tons of at bats. 

I've pointed it out before but Garcia has literally only had a few truly good seasons in his career and they're surrounded by a whole lot of bad/average ones. He's never put two great seasons together in a row and considering one of his good seasons was last year? yeah, not holding out any hope for him.  He can hard hit balls all he wants to but he looks mostly lost at the plate. He's an utter waste of money and we're stuck looking at him for four years (but at least ONE of those years he should be good if his career trends hold true)

Soler strikes out a TON and he's not really in a contract year as you say as he can loaf and end up batting .100 for the year if he wanted to and still opt for his contract to be renewed next year and the year after that too.  If you've watched any games this year he's not exactly a "hustle"  guy either so I'm not buying your whole "motivation" concept.  He has a super player friendly deal and can literally keep renewing it while doing nothing on the field. 

 

 

[marlins_09]

7 minutes ago, hovertical said:

Really curious what you were saying last year too when they had a positive run differential but were like 12 games under .500.  They have a positive run differential due to the occasional power games when the piles of shit we have in the lineup actually hit for a night or two and they drop 8-10 runs.  The rest of the time if we're down 3-0 it feels like we're down 8-0 because they can't actually get hits and move guys.  A positive run differential is not always a sign of a good team and that's clearly evident with this team. they get the occasional blowout wins and then when they lose it's usually by only 1 or 2 runs. This is the SAME offense as last year and as the season wears on, if they don't make changes, they're going to end up around 70-75 wins and have wasted yet another year of young pitching talent.

 

Man, if you think they aren't viewing both Garcia and Soler as high priced FA signings you're being awfully naive.  To this group, they make a LOT of money and this is why they will continue to give them tons of at bats. 

I've pointed it out before but Garcia has literally only had a few truly good seasons in his career and they're surrounded by a whole lot of bad/average ones. He's never put two great seasons together in a row and considering one of his good seasons was last year? yeah, not holding out any hope for him.  He can hard hit balls all he wants to but he looks mostly lost at the plate. He's an utter waste of money and we're stuck looking at him for four years (but at least ONE of those years he should be good if his career trends hold true)

Soler strikes out a TON and he's not really in a contract year as you say as he can loaf and end up batting .100 for the year if he wanted to and still opt for his contract to be renewed next year and the year after that too.  If you've watched any games this year he's not exactly a "hustle"  guy either so I'm not buying your whole "motivation" concept.  He has a super player friendly deal and can literally keep renewing it while doing nothing on the field. 

 

 

10000%. This is why statcast data on its own is useless. When you watch the games, it’s clear how lost Avi and Soler are. The problem is it’s not anything  abnormal for their careers. This isn’t an anomaly. This is who they are. Soler is an extreme pull hitter who pretty much only hits inside fastballs. He hit .180 before being traded to the Braves for a guy who is now the Royals 24th best prospect. 
 

Garcia is and has always been meh. He’s always been a very slow starter and heats up after the all star break. Just another streaky hitter with a lack of approach. More traits (exit velo / long HRs) over tools guys. 

Edited May 4, 2022 by marlins_09

[marlins_09]

12 hours ago, Erick said:

She hasn’t done a terrible job. The bullpen, for example, is all undervalued assets acquired by her.

The main one who needs to go is Mattingly. I normally don’t like to criticize managers since I think it’s better to have stability in the role. But it’s been a long time now, and he makes too many silly decisions that are worth criticizing at this point. 

Sure, she hasn’t been terrible per se, but it’s also not good enough. And it’s not particularly close to good enough. 

At this point in our “competitive Window”, I’m much more concerned about getting GM right rather than Manager. Our entire rebuild is going to hinge on 2 potential major transactions. They’re going to have to trade from SP to get a hitter. which guy they deal, who they choose as their guy to go “all-in” on, those are major decisions that play a key factor in what the next 3-5 years of marlins baseball look like

[Admin]

I am not in favor of firing her at this time, but I definitely think she needs to do a better job before it gets to that point.

[Sherman shill]

31 minutes ago, SonOfJack said:

I am not in favor of firing her at this time, but I definitely think she needs to do a better job before it gets to that point.

I'm on the fence. If she was fired it wouldn't surprise me in the least and neither would I care. I also know she hasn't been in her role very long so she may need more time I guess. I assume this is kinda how you feel as well then.

[Admin]

Just now, hovertical said:

I'm on the fence. If she was fired it wouldn't surprise me in the least and neither would I care. I also know she hasn't been in her role very long so she may need more time I guess. I assume this is kinda how you feel as well then.

Yeah, you said it better than me.

[MarlinsLou]

1 hour ago, hovertical said:

Really curious what you were saying last year too when they had a positive run differential but were like 12 games under .500.  They have a positive run differential due to the occasional power games when the piles of shit we have in the lineup actually hit for a night or two and they drop 8-10 runs.  The rest of the time if we're down 3-0 it feels like we're down 8-0 because they can't actually get hits and move guys.  A positive run differential is not always a sign of a good team and that's clearly evident with this team. they get the occasional blowout wins and then when they lose it's usually by only 1 or 2 runs. This is the SAME offense as last year and as the season wears on, if they don't make changes, they're going to end up around 70-75 wins and have wasted yet another year of young pitching talent.

 

Man, if you think they aren't viewing both Garcia and Soler as high priced FA signings you're being awfully naive.  To this group, they make a LOT of money and this is why they will continue to give them tons of at bats. 

I've pointed it out before but Garcia has literally only had a few truly good seasons in his career and they're surrounded by a whole lot of bad/average ones. He's never put two great seasons together in a row and considering one of his good seasons was last year? yeah, not holding out any hope for him.  He can hard hit balls all he wants to but he looks mostly lost at the plate. He's an utter waste of money and we're stuck looking at him for four years (but at least ONE of those years he should be good if his career trends hold true)

Soler strikes out a TON and he's not really in a contract year as you say as he can loaf and end up batting .100 for the year if he wanted to and still opt for his contract to be renewed next year and the year after that too.  If you've watched any games this year he's not exactly a "hustle"  guy either so I'm not buying your whole "motivation" concept.  He has a super player friendly deal and can literally keep renewing it while doing nothing on the field. 

 

 

It means they are unlucky AF, and I don't think anecdotally we can blame everything on 8-10 run outbursts. They lost the last 2 games scoring 4 runs. They've only scored 8+ 3 times this year. They aren't playing consistent blowouts.

I don't care what THEY view as high priced free agents. I am not holding them to the standard of their own cheapness. Garica/Soler are not expensive for ordinary FA. It's a MLB fact. Which goes back to what I said - this is a blame Ng thread where blame SHERMAN is more logical for hamstringing the team with an unreasonable payroll for a psuedo contender. This is a SHERMAN problem first and foremost. Yes, Ng deserves blame for not doing a prospect CF trade (CF was not available in FA, and Marte is old so he was a smart pass), but not the overall payroll is a far worse issue.

I'm not freaking out about 23 game SSS. Soler is a .789 career OPS bat, who more recently has some epic .900+ stretches. Garcia is a .749 career OPS bat, which is much better when you pull out everything prior to 2017 which is a log time ago, and plays good defense. I have a hard time believing the bottom drops out because of 23 games. We do this every year. The sky is falling. They lost some games. There is a slump. The sky is falling. These guys aren't JT Riddle and Reggie Abercrombie.

You are also naive if you think Soler doesn't want a guaranteed $70-100m like Schwarber (who is older than him) and Castellanos. The "lazy worker" theory is incredibly dumb for hyper competitive alpha male athletes who already have made $36m prior to this season. It's a lazy, knee jerk take based on recency bias of a slump. Soler can make $25-40m+ in MORE guaranteed money this offseason if he plays like 2019/post-2021. He wants that for sure. Which is why they got the opt outs. He is betting on himself, and presumably agreed to not take a 4th year (like Garcia, Schwarber) to do it. It really speaks volumes as to how much he is betting on himself.

 

1 hour ago, marlins_09 said:

10000%. This is why statcast data on its own is useless. When you watch the games, it’s clear how lost Avi and Soler are. The problem is it’s not anything  abnormal for their careers. This isn’t an anomaly. This is who they are. Soler is an extreme pull hitter who pretty much only hits inside fastballs. He hit .180 before being traded to the Braves for a guy who is now the Royals 24th best prospect. 
 

Garcia is and has always been meh. He’s always been a very slow starter and heats up after the all star break. Just another streaky hitter with a lack of approach. More traits (exit velo / long HRs) over tools guys. 

No one is saying they are incredible, but they should be consistent veterans in the 2+ WAR range, and both have "traits" to suggest there is more. Those are the guys you bet on with medium level FA money - Garcia's hit tool for upside/defense for a floor (Garcia is playing replacement level baseball with a .450 OPS showing how good he is defensively) and Soler's low 2021 BABIP/power upside. There is a difference between procedure and results. The procedure of player acquisition can make sense, but the results may not follow. These are fine signings procedurally in a vacuum (good for Kim), even if the results may end up being bad longterm (bad for Kim).

As said above, Garcia/Soler acquisitions isn't the problem on their own. It's (1) not getting a CF upgrade on top of this, and (2) they should have moved Aguilar/Cooper to move payroll and gotten that spot upgraded. Bonus points for (3) Berti upgrade who hits lefties and (4) a veteran catcher who hits lefties. Even with Bruce giving her a bullshit payroll, I suspect there is money to do 1-4 with Garcia/Soler/reasonable MiLB trades. That is her failure. It's not Garcia/Soler in theory, even if they may bust longterm. That is important when evaluating the thought process, as sound decisions make more sense than not longterm.

1 hour ago, marlins_09 said:

Sure, she hasn’t been terrible per se, but it’s also not good enough. And it’s not particularly close to good enough. 

At this point in our “competitive Window”, I’m much more concerned about getting GM right rather than Manager. Our entire rebuild is going to hinge on 2 potential major transactions. They’re going to have to trade from SP to get a hitter. which guy they deal, who they choose as their guy to go “all-in” on, those are major decisions that play a key factor in what the next 3-5 years of marlins baseball look like

I agree it's 2 major transactions, and it's likely a trade and major FA next year. I don't think Ng has done anything to suggest she can't hit two free throws for Laureano/Reynolds and "Correa level player." Honestly, those are hard to fuck up absent a ludicrous trade.

[SongInTheAir]

Look, Kim Ng got rid of Isan Diaz. That's a win and she can stay just for that.

[marlins_09]

32 minutes ago, MarlinsLou said:

It means they are unlucky AF, and I don't think anecdotally we can blame everything on 8-10 run outbursts. They lost the last 2 games scoring 4 runs. They've only scored 8+ 3 times this year. They aren't playing consistent blowouts.

I don't care what THEY view as high priced free agents. I am not holding them to the standard of their own cheapness. Garica/Soler are not expensive for ordinary FA. It's a MLB fact. Which goes back to what I said - this is a blame Ng thread where blame SHERMAN is more logical for hamstringing the team with an unreasonable payroll for a psuedo contender. This is a SHERMAN problem first and foremost. Yes, Ng deserves blame for not doing a prospect CF trade (CF was not available in FA, and Marte is old so he was a smart pass), but not the overall payroll is a far worse issue.

I'm not freaking out about 23 game SSS. Soler is a .789 career OPS bat, who more recently has some epic .900+ stretches. Garcia is a .749 career OPS bat, which is much better when you pull out everything prior to 2017 which is a log time ago, and plays good defense. I have a hard time believing the bottom drops out because of 23 games. We do this every year. The sky is falling. They lost some games. There is a slump. The sky is falling. These guys aren't JT Riddle and Reggie Abercrombie.

You are also naive if you think Soler doesn't want a guaranteed $70-100m like Schwarber (who is older than him) and Castellanos. The "lazy worker" theory is incredibly dumb for hyper competitive alpha male athletes who already have made $36m prior to this season. It's a lazy, knee jerk take based on recency bias of a slump. Soler can make $25-40m+ in MORE guaranteed money this offseason if he plays like 2019/post-2021. He wants that for sure. Which is why they got the opt outs. He is betting on himself, and presumably agreed to not take a 4th year (like Garcia, Schwarber) to do it. It really speaks volumes as to how much he is betting on himself.

 

No one is saying they are incredible, but they should be consistent veterans in the 2+ WAR range, and both have "traits" to suggest there is more. Those are the guys you bet on with medium level FA money - Garcia's hit tool for upside/defense for a floor (Garcia is playing replacement level baseball with a .450 OPS showing how good he is defensively) and Soler's low 2021 BABIP/power upside. There is a difference between procedure and results. The procedure of player acquisition can make sense, but the results may not follow. These are fine signings procedurally in a vacuum (good for Kim), even if the results may end up being bad longterm (bad for Kim).

As said above, Garcia/Soler acquisitions isn't the problem on their own. It's (1) not getting a CF upgrade on top of this, and (2) they should have moved Aguilar/Cooper to move payroll and gotten that spot upgraded. Bonus points for (3) Berti upgrade who hits lefties and (4) a veteran catcher who hits lefties. Even with Bruce giving her a bullshit payroll, I suspect there is money to do 1-4 with Garcia/Soler/reasonable MiLB trades. That is her failure. It's not Garcia/Soler in theory, even if they may bust longterm. That is important when evaluating the thought process, as sound decisions make more sense than not longterm.

I agree it's 2 major transactions, and it's likely a trade and major FA next year. I don't think Ng has done anything to suggest she can't hit two free throws for Laureano/Reynolds and "Correa level player." Honestly, those are hard to fuck up absent a ludicrous trade.

Here’s the problem with your argument. Garcia and Soler are bad acquisitions because of opportunity cost alone. For the same AAV as Soler/Garcia they could’ve acquired Mark Canha who would give this team similar if not better production, and a different dimension. We are devoid of guys with real approaches and higher OBP %. We don’t have enough (or hardly any) guys who are capable of playing baseball outside of the true 3 outcomes. We do not have the caliber of bats to play true 3 outcome baseball. 
 

Canha is just one direct comparison as he was a FA OFer. All things being equal, he would’ve been a better acquisition than Avi off contract length alone. 

 

We’re trying to play streaky, slug or K offense with a bunch of Great Value power hitters

Edited May 4, 2022 by marlins_09

[rmc523]

3 hours ago, MarlinsLou said:

We can hope the SP is so good this year that Bruce realizes what he has so he makes that plunge for a star bat, and then they get a second one with the pitching trade. That becomes a real interesting team real fast.

Except that was basically the same scenario last year and going into this offseason and minds seemingly weren’t changed then.  Why should I expect different going forward?

[MarlinsLou]

35 minutes ago, marlins_09 said:

Here’s the problem with your argument. Garcia and Soler are bad acquisitions because of opportunity cost alone. For the same AAV as Soler/Garcia they could’ve acquired Mark Canha who would give this team similar if not better production, and a different dimension. We are devoid of guys with real approaches and higher OBP %. We don’t have enough (or hardly any) guys who are capable of playing baseball outside of the true 3 outcomes. We do not have the caliber of bats to play true 3 outcome baseball. 
 

Canha is just one direct comparison as he was a FA OFer. All things being equal, he would’ve been a better acquisition than Avi off contract length alone. 

 

We’re trying to play streaky, slug or K offense with a bunch of Great Value power hitters

Canha is much older and not a good defender. So I disagree it makes more sense. I'd take the defense/lefty hitting Garcia as a floor, with his statcast upside. I'd also bet on Soler's 2021 BABIP (atrocious) and power upside. I'd take Garcia/Soler deals over Castellanos and Schwarber deals all day.

However, I can reframe this for you how it makes sense to me - no Garcia, Soler, or Aguilar, and Carlos Correa makes the same money. Why didn't they do that? For incremental more money, they could have traded for B. Reynolds with MiLB players on top of this.... and then we fill the roster out with Lewin/Burdick/Bleday. Even better if they get a veteran bench 1B/3B type. This is probably a "$10m" more team, with exponential more upside with Correa/Reynolds probably projecting 5-6 WAR more than Aguilar/Garcia/Soler. This isn't included improved OF defense and general attitude confidence from the players.

To be fair - I can also buy a Rizzo/C. Taylor/Joc strategy over Garcia/Soler/Aguilar. That makes A LOT more sense across the board as well for the same money. I'm not sure they could have gotten Taylor, but you can sell me really quickly on Rizzo (hometown) and Joc, and adding Reynolds/CF versus Garcia/Soler/Aguilar. This seems plausible and a better idea also.

We'll see what happens, but there are scenarios where the limited money Ng has been given could be stretched further, but hindsight bias is real here knowing now Correa took basically a 1 year deal. I still maintain, Soler/Garcia aren't the problem - it's the moves she didn't make for a CF and figuring out the Aguilar/Cooper/Soler logjam for 2 spots

[MarlinsLou]

39 minutes ago, rmc523 said:

Except that was basically the same scenario last year and going into this offseason and minds seemingly weren’t changed then.  Why should I expect different going forward?

Very true, however we could add - because Luzardo, Meyer, Cabrera, Eury, Sixto, and Eder are going to be amazing, as well as Jazz and Sanchez.