Midseason Report Cards: Baseball Prospectus

The Phillies are the best team on paper, but the worst of the contenders based on their underlying performance so far this year. The Mets and Braves, thought to be running on the fumes of recent contenders and making the transition to new eras, have been the best teams in the division per the Adjusted Standings Report, while the Phils and Marlins have come in behind them.

Separated by two games entering the All-Star break, there's not much to choose from among these squads. They could end up giving us the most entertaining race in baseball this year, not because they're all good, but because they're all flawed. The Phils have rotation issues and a combustible manager who has already banished his best center fielder to the minors. The Mets have serious OBP questions outside of their lineup core, along with a rotation that is old, not big on missing bats, and likely to regress down the stretch after pitching out of their minds in the first half. The Marlins are finding out what happens when the top of their order is just a little bit worse. The Braves have just hung around long enough to get Marcus Giles back and Rafael Furcal back in business.

The Mets and Phillies are the teams most likely to improve via the trade market, as both have sufficient cash reserves and prospects to deal, the Mets more than the Phils. Even having added Richard Hidalgo, the Mets can still improve their offense. On any given day, four Mets starters have below-average OBPs, and Kazuo Matsui is barely average. A good-hitting first baseman could be an offensive upgrade over Jason Phillips and Vance Wilson, with Mike Piazza going back behind the plate full-time. Even someone like Tino Martinez would be an asset, although you'd hope for Carlos Delgado, or even Matt Stairs.

The Phils need a starting pitcher to replace Vicente Padilla. Paul Abbott isn't a solution, although given the trade options, using in-house guys like Geoff Geary might be better than trading talent for Kris Benson or someone who looks like him. With Admin Bowa having banished Marlon Byrd to Triple-A, the Phils are giving away runs on both sides of the ball. A platoon of Ricky Ledee and Jason Michaels in Byrd's stead could have produced some nice offensive numbers, though it would have been lacking on defense. Ledee made it back from the DL last week, only to have Michaels come up lame with hamstring problems. The result has been too much (read: more than zero) playing time for Doug Glanville.

The Phillies, and lefty-power-friendly Citizens Bank Ballpark, would be a great fit for Steve Finley on a two-month rental, assuming Byrd is kept away. Byrd might even be bait in that deal. The catch? Finley's 10-and-5 status gives him control over any trade, and it's an open question as to whether he'd approve a deal to Philly.

The other two contenders are less likely to import what they need, largely because neither front office wants to add money. Even though the Braves have the most easily-filled holes--first base and left field--it doesn't appear that John Schuerholz has a mandate to do anything. The Marlins would become the favorites if they could get the underrated Jason Kendall, as has been rumored. The slap hitter would fit very well working in Pro Player Stadium's vast outfield. The Fish need one more hitter and at least one extra reliever, even though Admin Beinfest has done a good job eschewing pricey relievers in favor of cheap, low-profile solutions, trading for Billy Koch notwithstanding. Matt Perisho and Josias Manzanillo are setting up for the Fish; you can't get any lower-profile than that.

This is a fluid situation, and these teams may look sufficiently different by August 1, such that predicting their direction now is a bit silly. If I had to choose, I'd stick with my preseason choice of the Phillies, who seem to have come through a few slumps this year without Bowa erupting, and who have the best 25-man roster at the moment. I wouldn't be surprised if the Marlins won it, especially if Josh Beckett made 15 starts the rest of the year. I'll be floored if the Mets or Braves finish above .500, much less win the division. The two teams just don't seem wired that way, although every time Jaret Wright pitches, I'm reminded again of why Leo Mazzone belongs in the Hall of Fame.