Dontrelle Article

Dontrelle Willis is at it again. Saying he is off to a good start would be the understatement of the year. Despite losing on Tuesday night, Willis is still 7-1 with a 1.45 ERA on the season. He still has not lost a game in the month of April in his career; this April he was 5-0 with a 1.29 ERA. He's 8-0 with a 1.91 ERA in April in his career, and has a 23-7 record with a 2.86 ERA in his career prior to the All-Star break.

How does he do it? Well, he has good stuff, which helps a lot. He also has a very deceptive delivery. He's all arms and legs and therefore hitters have a really tough time picking up the ball out of his hand. You can't hit what you can't see.

Let's take a look at some of the other reasons Willis has been so successful:

He's throwing strikes: Willis pounds the strike zone and keeps coming at the hitters, challenging them with his stuff and saying, "Hit me if you can." In order to pitch that way, a pitcher has to have confidence in the quality of his pitches and his ability to locate them where he wants. Through his first seven starts, Dontrelle had thrown 67.2 percent of his pitches for strikes this year, which is over 5 percent better than the average pitcher.

He throws first-pitch strikes: One of the keys for any pitcher is to work ahead in the count. The best way to do that is to throw strike one with the first pitch. An 0-1 count gives the pitcher more options in his approach to a hitter. It also allows the pitcher to move his pitches more to the corners of the plate because he has some margin for error. The best way to combat hitters who look to work deep counts and draw walks is to throw strike one -- automatically the hitter must change his approach and become more aggressive. Working ahead of the hitter has been critical to Dontrelle's success this season. Through his first seven starts, he delivered strikes in 63.2 percent of his first pitches to hitters which is about 5.5 percent better than the average pitcher.

He's mainly kept leadoff hitters off base: One of the best ways to score runs is to get the leadoff hitter on base. When the leadoff man reaches base, a team's chance of scoring goes up exponentially. Conversely, one of the ways to limit your opponent from scoring is to keep the leadoff hitter in every inning from reaching base. Through his first seven starts, Willis had held opposing leadoff hitters to a .294 on-base percentage. That's pretty darn good. With the bases empty, in fact, Willis had held the competition to a .226 batting average in his first seven starts. And on the whole, he's been tough to hit no matter what the situation has been.

He's been great with runners on base: Some pitchers struggle in games when a runner reaches base and they have to throw from the stretch position. The quality of many pitchers' stuff drops off when they are not able to wind up. Greg Maddux throws most of his bullpen sessions from the stretch position, simulating when a runner is on base because he says that is when he has to make his most critical pitches. It makes sense. Get this -- with runners on base, Willis was holding the opposition to a .131 batting average through his first seven starts. I guess he doesn't have any problems throwing from the stretch position.

He's been even better with runners in scoring position: The difference between a pitcher with great stuff who wins and one who loses is the ability to handle pressure situations with runners in scoring position. Can he make the pitch when he needs to in order to shut down the opponent? Does he have that something extra in his arsenal to elevate his game when so much is on the line? The way you can tell who those guys are is to look at their numbers with runners in scoring position. With runners in scoring position, Willis was holding National League hitters to a .103 batting average and had allowed four runs through his first seven starts. No wonder he was 7-0.

He helps himself: In the National League, pitchers can help themselves win games by doing some little things. If a pitcher can handle the bat well, hold baserunners and field his position it helps to win games. Willis does all of those things. He can especially swing the bat. Even when he does not get a hit, the opposing pitcher knows that he's a threat and therefore can't relax in his approach. On the day that Willis pitches, the Marlins' very deep lineup is even deeper.

He has passion: There are more than a few pitchers who have good stuff and good approaches, but there is something that separates Willis -- it's his passion. He pitches like he's having fun. He pitches like he wants to win. You might think that every pitcher does that, but Willis wears his desire on his sleeve. You can see and feel the confidence, the determination and desire to compete. If he was a football player, he would be a running back who always fights for the extra yard. In basketball, he would be the guy who dives for a loose ball, saves it and then hustles to the other end of the floor and finishes the play with a dunk. He sets the tone when he's on the mound and his teammates respond to him.

He's eyeing a 20-win season: The key to winning 20 games for Willis is not how he pitches when he wins but how he will respond to a loss. Remember, this is a guy who has been a fast starter. He's 23-7 record with a 2.86 ERA before the All-Star break in his career, but is just 8-11 with a 4.30 ERA after the break. That is a significant difference. The reason his numbers are so different in the first and second halves of the season is because when he did lose a couple games or when he got knocked around, he changed his approach to pitching.

Baseball is a game of adjustments, but if Dontrelle has a bad game the only adjustment he should make is to get back to the winning formula stated above. He needs to pound the strike zone.

There will be a day when he elevates his pitches and will get hit. The key will be how he responds to that inevitable game. In the past, his response has been to try to miss bats. When pitchers try to miss bats instead of throwing quality strikes, they normally throw fewer strikes. They throw fewer first-pitch strikes. More leadoff hitters ultimately reach base and there are more runners to be found in scoring position.

When a pitcher tries to avoid contact instead of throwing strikes, he throws more balls off of the plate. This leads to more hitter's counts (2-0, 3-1, etc.) and allows the hitter to look for a certain pitch. This means trouble for any pitcher. When that game comes, a pitcher shouldn't adjust his approach; nothing will be wrong. A bad game will happen because a pitcher just didn't throw enough quality strikes, or he missed with some pitches, or a couple balls blooped over the infield.

The best way to win baseball games is to have pitchers who have a passion to win and who can throw strike one. This means Dontrelle Willis will win quite a few games.

Predicting Dontrelle

The numbers Steve Phillips predicts Dontrelle Willis will finish the 2005 season with:

A 20-9 record and a 2.41 ERA.

source: ESPN insider by Steve Phillips

Nice to see an article praising Dontrelle for something other than his high leg kick.

-FlumLum