Win Probability is based on real game data to show a team's chances of winning at any point of the game. It is extremely useful to understand each play and to represent how the game flow. For more information on Win Probability, read this Hardball Times article.

 

 

 

8/9/2005

 

 

 

 

8/13/2005

 

 

As you can see, this was a pitcher's duel with a lot missed chances by the offense. The biggest of which was the collision at the plate in the 8th inning although Beckett's recovery in the 9th was huge. As BullDurham pointed out in the game thread, Feliz popping out for the first out of the ninth was huge. 16.1% shift there. Only Delgado's home run that represented the game-winning run came close to having an impact on the outcome of the game.

 

 

Contributions:

Team ? ?Player ? ? ? ? Offen ?Pitch ? Field ? Total ?Psum ? Pavg
Giants ?Matheny ? ? ? ?0.188 ?0.000 ?-0.012 ? 0.176 ?0.30 ?.0752
? ? ? ? Tomko ? ? ? ? ?0.000 ?0.060 ? 0.000 ? 0.060 ?1.75 ?.0604
? ? ? ? Durham ? ? ? ? 0.051 ?0.000 ? 0.000 ? 0.051 ?0.06 ?.0635
? ? ? ? Accardo ? ? ? ?0.000 ?0.037 ? 0.000 ? 0.037 ?0.04 ?.0382
? ? ? ? Vizquel ? ? ? ?0.037 ?0.000 ? 0.000 ? 0.037 ?0.29 ?.0721
? ? ? ? Feliz ? ? ? ? ?0.035 ?0.000 ? 0.000 ? 0.035 ?0.58 ?.1448
? ? ? ? Eyre ? ? ? ? ? 0.000 ?0.030 ? 0.000 ? 0.030 ?0.06 ?.0189
? ? ? ? Snow ? ? ? ? ? 0.008 ?0.000 ? 0.000 ? 0.008 ?0.52 ?.1293
? ? ? ? Christiansen ? 0.000 ?0.042 ?-0.037 ? 0.005 ?0.38 ?.0625
? ? ? ? Cruz ? ? ? ? ?-0.063 ?0.000 ? 0.000 ?-0.063 ?0.25 ?.0835
? ? ? ? Tomko (bat) ? -0.073 ?0.000 ? 0.000 ?-0.073 ?0.18 ?.0925
? ? ? ? Winn ? ? ? ? ?-0.167 ?0.000 ? 0.000 ?-0.167 ?0.27 ?.0665
? ? ? ? Alfonzo ? ? ? -0.292 ?0.000 ? 0.000 ?-0.292 ?0.52 ?.1293
? ? ? ? Linden ? ? ? ?-0.317 ?0.000 ? 0.000 ?-0.317 ?0.63 ?.1262
Giants ?Total ? ? ? ? -0.507 ?0.169 ?-0.049 ?-0.500 ?8.07 ?.0727

Team ? ?Player ? ? ? ? Offen ?Pitch ? Field ? Total ?Psum ? Pavg
Marlins Beckett ? ? ? ?0.000 ?0.367 ? 0.000 ? 0.367 ?3.57 ?.1050
? ? ? ? Pierre ? ? ? ? 0.021 ?0.000 ? 0.112 ? 0.134 ?0.49 ?.0972
? ? ? ? Delgado ? ? ? ?0.086 ?0.000 ? 0.000 ? 0.086 ?0.20 ?.0510
? ? ? ? Castillo ? ? ? 0.056 ?0.000 ? 0.000 ? 0.056 ?0.22 ?.0555
? ? ? ? Lowell ? ? ? ?-0.001 ?0.000 ? 0.000 ?-0.001 ?0.23 ?.0467
? ? ? ? Treanor ? ? ? -0.126 ?0.000 ? 0.112 ?-0.014 ?0.50 ?.0998
? ? ? ? Beckett (bat) -0.029 ?0.000 ? 0.000 ?-0.029 ?0.13 ?.0443
? ? ? ? Encarnacion ? -0.034 ?0.000 ? 0.000 ?-0.034 ?0.32 ?.0634
? ? ? ? Gonzalez ? ? ? 0.050 ?0.000 ?-0.084 ?-0.035 ?0.49 ?.0980
? ? ? ? Cabrera ? ? ? -0.179 ?0.000 ? 0.000 ?-0.179 ?0.28 ?.0701
Marlins Total ? ? ? ? -0.120 ?0.367 ? 0.140 ? 0.500 ?9.83 ?.0910

P is the pressure each player faces at the time they step to the plate or mound.

Pierre and Treanor were each given half credit for nailing Linden at the plate. Vizquel received credit for reaching first, none for advancing on the error. Delgado none for reaching first on the error.

 

yea I look at Win Expectancy alot. Very interesting stuff

You simply cannot have enough baseball numbers to look at, ever. Fascinating stuff, and the amazing thing about baseball is the numbers are right only half of the time (maybe).

 

Baseball is such a great freaking game.

8/14/2005

Man, I hurt!

 

I really hurt...