Posted September 27, 200519 yr LAS VEGAS - Drive south out the Strip past the MGM Grand and Mandalay Bay, hang a left on Sunset Road - don't look left for too long or you'll be distracted by the comings and goings on the McCarran Airport runway or the casino-hotel monoliths in the distance - and glance right when you are about to hit the first traffic light at Grier Drive. Look up to the second-floor windows and imagine an office where there are no suits and the employees spend their days scouring the Internet for information that will affect the bottom lines of all those shimmering hotels out there on the Strip. Fifteen years ago, Tony Sinisi left Altoona for Las Vegas with his wife Penny, promising her it would "be an adventure." These days, Sinisi arrives at the office at 5:30 a.m., about the time most of the players on the Strip are considering sleep. He is the odds director for Las Vegas Sports Consultants, which occupies those second-floor offices in the nondescript, cinder-block building at 675 Grier Drive. It's so close to the airport runway that, when LVSC first moved a decade ago from its location atop the Bank of America Building with its view of the Stardust, legend has it that former LVSC owner Michael "Roxy" Roxborough and his employees used to bet on the identity of the next airliner to land on the runway. It was suspected that Roxy, always looking for an edge, had a direct line to the control tower, which gave him the kind of edge he needed. Roxy was so successful through the years that, after selling the company he started, he is now retired and counting his millions in Thailand. "I am trying to get information from the last 24 hours that would change what's happening now," Sinisi says. In LVSC's world, information is king. And, in his 24/7 world, Sinisi does not want to miss anything. There is no time to catch up, especially in the fall. LVSC supplies betting lines for 30 clients, almost all of them in Nevada, where sports wagering and just about everything else is legal. In a town where everybody has an opinion, their opinion matters most. Sinisi, LVSC chief operating officer Kenny White and a fascinating cast of characters pore over their numbers, read everything they can find and, when it is time, turn all that knowledge into a number. That number is then transmitted to all those clients who pay LVSC a monthly fee for their expertise. The number is then posted on all those glitzy boards at all those fancy sports books. Sports wagering was an afterthought in the Vegas of the 1950s, '60s and '70s. There were little dives like the Rose Bowl and Santa Anita. The 10 percent tax chilled the action. When it was lowered to 0.25 percent in the 1980s, the hotels got the message and sports books took their place alongside all those slot machines, blackjack tables and roulette wheels. In early morning, Sinisi is working on his baseball numbers for the next day. He wants to know "how the games were played, did a team go deep into its bullpen, injuries, anything that would affect how you looked at it previously." There is so much information available now that the trick is to lock in on that info that has real importance. "The Internet has changed my world dramatically," Sinisi says. It is fall weekends when the pace at LVSC goes from fast to frantic. An individual does NASCAR. Football is way too big for one person. Making these numbers is a collaborative effort. There is simply too much money on the line to leave anything to chance. Americans love to bet on just about anything. They love to bet on football above all else. More than $2 billion was bet in Nevada's sports books last year. Football accounted for nearly half of the total. "You have to keep your ego out of it," Sinisi says. "It's really an inexact science. Money rules the market. We're just setting the market." LVSC is not trying to predict winners. It's trying to predict the public. Too much action on one side gives the books exposure, and they don't like to be exposed. In a perfect world, they get the same amount of money on both sides of a game. Their world is never perfect. The house's edge never changes. If you bet $10 on a game, you get $10 if you win, pay $11 if you lose. That 10 percent on losing bets adds up over time. In the short run, however, there are no sure things. In fact, there is every chance on a football weekend that the books will lose and the players will win. It is one of LVSC's tasks to make sure that doesn't happen. Technically, they have no stake once those numbers go up. It is not their money on the line, but it is their reputation. Frenetic game day Last weekend, the Daily News had an all-access pass to LVSC's inner sanctum. The Saturday college pregame shows begin at 7:30 a.m., the early games at 9. There is wall-to-wall football on the bank of 10 television sets. Each of the consultant/oddsmakers sits quietly at his desk with two and sometimes three desktop computers to keep him company. Michigan-Eastern Michigan, West Virginia-Maryland, Oregon State-Louisville and Syracuse-Virginia flash on the screens. Sinisi's desk is covered with a file on every Division I-A team. His power ratings, the starting point when he gets ready to make a line, are arranged in alphabetical order by school. He constantly refers to his computer screen, which shows line movement at the Vegas books and offshore sites. Sinisi is concerned about several games. LVSC made Notre Dame a seven-point favorite over Michigan State. Money poured in on the Spartans, knocking the line down to 4 ?. LVSC's clients are exposed. They have too much money on Michigan State. They are rooting for Notre Dame. So is Sinisi. "Is Brady Quinn out?" White wonders. "I thought it might go to 10," Sinisi says. The public decided otherwise. "This is like taking a test every day," Sinisi says. "If you don't prepare, you can get embarrassed." LVSC made Florida a four-point favorite over Tennessee. The public has bet it up to six. "It looks like it's going to be a big game for us," Sinisi says. "I had a sense that was the side they were going to take. I could kick myself. We'll be big Vols fans." Make dozens of decisions a day and not all of them are going to be right. Last year, Nevada sports books made more than $100 million so, clearly, LVSC knows what it is doing. This day, however, is not going well. Oregon State is leading Louisville by 10 early. "That's good," Sinisi says. "They bet Louisville." A moment later, Sinisi says: "But Louisville can score so fast." Like 5 minutes later, the 'Ville leads 28-10. It goes on to score 63 and cover the spread easily. Sinisi has no time to worry about it. The early games are closing on halftime. He has halftime lines to make. Yes, people bet on the second half. The 20-minute window does not allow for a lot of action, but there is action. With an outside consultant who calls in, Sinisi quickly discusses the halftime lines, calls out the numbers and one of the lower-ranking LVSC employees bangs them into his computer and sends them on their way. The players line up in the books to get their halftime fix. Sinisi came to this world with the perfect background. His father, also Tony, was a bookmaker in Altoona. "His heyday was in the '40s, '50s and early '60s," Sinisi says. "He used to go to Hialeah every winter. Basketball was such a small game then. Baseball was the game." He figures, if he had asked his father on his deathbed the numbers for the Yankees and Cardinals, he would have known 15 and 3. Seems bookmakers in those days had numbers for each team so, if, say the police happened to stop by, all those sheets with, say, "15/200" wouldn't mean all that much to them. Sinisi's father had one saying that has always stuck with his son. "Money and patience. You couldn't run out of either one." Sinisi has put his 1976 business degree from Penn State to very good use. His father would be proud. "He would always ask if I was picking any winners," Sinisi says. "It was like saying 'I love you.'" Sinisi's mother, Floryne, lives in Haddon Heights, N.J., with his sister, Ellen. Nevada beckons Sinisi hung around Altoona for years tending bar, selling cable-TV deals, betting games. Tony and his brother David, who lives in Harrisburg, regularly made the 2 ?-hour trip to Charles Town for the races. "You could smell the horse liniment 45 minutes from the track," Sinisi says. "When horses dropped from $2,500 to $2,000, that was a big drop." A friend of Sinisi's worked for Roxy. He recommended Sinisi. "I always knew I wanted to do this," Sinisi says. He came as an entry-level employee, remembers selling tickets at Arizona Charlie's to make ends meet. He has worked his way right to the top of his profession. Roxy made a great hire. Roxy agrees, while telling stories over dinner last Sunday at Piero's, the classic old-time Vegas restaurant. Roxy is in town, visiting from his Thailand home. He arrived in Vegas in 1975 from Vancouver, British Columbia, as a player. He eventually saw a better way. When all those sports books started up, Roxy saw an opportunity. They needed a clearinghouse. He started LVSC in the early 1980s. By the late '90s, he had done Vegas. He got his money and got out. The Sinisis are here for a while yet. "I had a 2-year plan," Penny says. "If it wasn't working, I was going back with or without him." Sinisi says, "Three years after we got here, she's driving down the Strip calling me on a cell phone, talking about what stocks we should buy." Today, Penny is a highly successful mortgage loan officer and co-owner of a mortgage business in one of the fastest-growing cities in America. The Sinisis caught the Vegas wave of the 1990s and have ridden it right into the good life. "We've been very lucky," he says. One bad day is not going to change that. Still, can Notre Dame really cover after trailing by 21? Are the Irish really tied with the ball and a chance to steal it late? Is the sculptor standing by with his picture of Charlie Weis as a guide? Alas, the Irish lose in overtime. Florida beats Tennessee by nine. Cal had been bet from 17 to 21 against Illinois. The Illini lead early and hold on late to lose but cover, a win for the books. "It was not as bad as the bloodletting it could have been," Sinisi says early Sunday morning. There is no time to look back. You learn. You move on. The NFL games are starting at 10 a.m. local time. "You have to be flexible and adjust off the first few games," says Sinisi, who has final say while working closely with his colleagues. Mix of expertise The knowledge of football details that Kenny White, the firm's COO, has is astonishing. A former independent line consultant and public linemaker, he knows things about teams and players they could not possibly know about themselves. He sits alone in his office watching games, emerging when it is time to discuss the numbers for next week. Jason Been sits right next to the TVs, quietly watching everything and not so quietly rooting against Notre Dame. Even though it's against the company's interest, he can't help himself. He grew up in Milwaukee a Marquette fan. He came to Nevada-Las Vegas, where he was a manager for the basketball team when Rollie Massimino and Jay Wright were there. He never left. John Harper is from New Jersey with one passion in life: North Carolina basketball. He is concerned with the weather in Chapel Hill because he wants the basketball recruits at the Carolina-Wisconsin football game to have a good time. Dan O'Brien grew up in Connecticut. He is very statistic-oriented. If there is a math issue, he solves it. He is LVSC's prop expert. Mike Seba grew up in Hot Springs, Ark., where his father was a horse trainer and his family was very friendly with Virginia Kelley, President Clinton's mother. He went to Arkansas and loves his Hogs. He has been given special permission to leave the LVSC bunker for the weekend and attend the USC-Arkansas game in Los Angeles. His wife is a USC fan. "He loves the Hogs and 31," Sinisi says. He probably was not counting on USC 70, Arkansas 17. Scott Ramsey is the young guy on the come, who, according to Sinisi, is "rapidly improving." Everybody has a specialty. At LVSC, somebody has to know about everything - boxing, tennis, head-to-head matchups, future bets, whatever. As the early NFL games hit halftime, with games on every screen and the Eagles looking like they are going to score a hundred against the 49ers, the second-half numbers are dealt out. As the early games are nearing an end, White joins Sinisi at his desk with their college numbers for Saturday. Seba and Ramsey had called their numbers in. Each of the four men has an opinion. The numbers are announced in order of seniority. Sinisi goes last. "When it's three, three, three, three, it's 'next,' " Sinisi says. "When it's three, seven, 10, 17, that's when Roxy would say, "We've got a problem here.' Then you look at it." All week, the four men are looking ahead so when it comes time, they are ready. They adjust according to what they've just seen. Ultimately, each number is a statement about everything they know. They do the games in the order in which they will be played. There is pretty much of a consensus until Cal-New Mexico State. Ramsey has Cal by 22 ?. Seba has it 23 ?. White likes 27. Sinisi says 25. "New Mexico State is absolutely the dregs," White says. "It is a question of how many Cal wants to win by," Sinisi says. "It is the old, 'How high is too high?' " They settle on 25. It is not high enough. The line is bet up to 29 by midweek. The numbers on Penn State-Northwestern come in at nine, 3 ?, 12 ? and six. "Penn State is back," White insists. They settle on seven. "Kenny, this one is on your big shoulders," says Sinisi, who certainly follows his alma mater but is not swayed by anything except reality. Western Michigan-Temple is one of those classic games where it is possible there will be no winner. They all agree Western Michigan is the lesser of the two evils. The numbers come in Western Michigan 2 ?, seven, seven and seven. They settle on seven. The players have bet the Owls this week. Western Michigan is now favored by four. "This is not a game I would want to book out of my pocket," Sinisi says. In Sinisi's power ratings, the lower the number the better the team. USC is a minus-10 and Sinisi is thinking about lowering it. Temple is a 41. Which means that a starting point for that USC-Temple neutral-field matchup the nation yearns for is USC favored by 51. In reality, it would probably be 60 or more. Thankfully, the Owls forgot to schedule the Trojans. LVSC has been setting the Temple lines higher than the math might indicate. It is doing that for a reason. Shockingly, players know the Owls are no good. They don't need much of a reason to play against Temple. "You are paying a premium to bet against Temple," Sinisi said. So, the Owls have actually been bet down the last 3 weeks. Did not help against Wisconsin. They got a backdoor cover against Toledo. And they are betting them again this week. Good luck. Home field matters. Some home fields matter more, like Wisconsin's. Some are worth three points. Others could be worth five. Or more. There is a real difference of opinion on Michigan at Wisconsin. Ramsey and White have it pick 'em. Seba has Wisconsin by one. Sinisi has Michigan by three. "I have a real strong opinion on this game," Sinisi says. "Michigan is absolutely the side. I just think they are better." He has Michigan by three. When three go one way and one goes the other, you might think the majority would rule. In this world, the strongest opinion rules, even if it is the only opinion on a side. Sinisi is convinced. If somebody else were convinced about a game, he would carefully consider that. The LVSC line is Michigan by three. Some of the offshores had pick or Wisconsin by one. By midweek, the line across the board is Michigan by three. Sinisi's opinion of the game perfectly matched the public's. The LVSC clients were getting action on both sides. He has hit the oddsmakers equivalent of a home run, believing in his opinion even when nobody else shared it. "You have to have a certain confidence," Sinisi says. "Otherwise, why are you sitting here?" While they are making the lines, they also make "totals" for each game. Players then can bet under or over the number. Why they would do this only they know. But they do it. No time to waste They go through the colleges game by game. They assign numbers. When the 40-minute exercise is done, the numbers are transferred to a master sheet and sent off to the sports books. They are posted by midafternoon Sunday just as the late NFL games are heading into the fourth quarter, the perfect time to consider the next bet. Sinisi, the early bird who specializes in college sports, slips out after the college lines are done. White, Been, Seba, O'Brien and an outside consultant are putting the finishing touches on their NFL numbers. At 4:35, a few minutes after all the late NFL games are done, White emerges and announces that it is time. If football is king, the NFL is the King of Kings. For the linemakers, however, the NFL is not nearly as difficult as college. Would you rather be on the hook for Louisiana-Monroe vs. Florida Atlantic or Eagles-Raiders? There are very few unknowns in the NFL. Eagles-Raiders comes in at Eagles eight, 9 ?, 8 ?, seven and nine. They settle on 8 ? and a total of 48, but hold off sending out the numbers because the Raiders-Chiefs game is about to start in Oakland. They don't want to put out a number and then have to change it, based on new information. They all agree the pathetic Packers have to be an underdog at home for the first time any of them can remember. They make the Bucs a three-point favorite. "The Packers will not run for more than 60 yards," announces Been, the Wisconsin native. White, Been and O'Brien are in the room, so they debate when debate is necessary. Four of them have the Chargers favored by anywhere from four to 6 ?. White has it 8 ?. "What am I missing?" White says. They all agree the Chargers are going to want to bury Eli Manning, the Giants quarterback who refused to play for San Diego. They go with 6 ?. Pittsburgh and New England, they all believe, is going to be like a playoff game. What has happened in the past matters. What is happening now matters more. The Steelers have looked great in the first 2 weeks, the Patriots mortal. There is little debate that Pittsburgh, playing at home, deserves to be a three-point favorite. In 25 minutes, lines are set for the 14 NFL games. Four teams have byes this week, so the load is a bit lighter. Within the hour, the lines for the games not involving the teams that are still playing or will be playing the next night will be posted in the books. Betting commences. The rest of the lines follow when all the results are in. It is important to LVSC that it is first or very close to first. There are plenty of wannabes out there. The offshore market has changed the dynamic. Players can now bet from home on their computers or by phone. "They are the elephant in the room," Sinisi says. "They offer convenience." Still, even with the changing climate, LVSC and Vegas still are kings in the point-spread world. You never have to worry about getting paid off in Vegas. The casinos are not going to run out of cash. In this business, stubbornness will get you nowhere. After reviewing Notre Dame-Michigan State, Sinisi does not think he was wrong about the Notre Dame. He just thinks he underrated Michigan State. He has adjusted his Spartans' power rating accordingly. The oddsmaking business is pretty much like Vegas itself. There is no closing time. There are moments to breathe. Then, there is the next line to make. And everybody holds their breath, hoping the favorites don't win all the NFL games one Sunday. The public likes favorites; especially on those very popular parlay cards, where you can get 6-1 if you go 3-for-3 and 1,400-1 if you go 11-for-11. "We want a mix of favorites and underdogs," Sinisi says. "If 13 of 14 NFL favorites ever win, it will be Armageddon." Football is wild, but, for sheer intensity, there is nothing like the first few hours after Selection Sunday in March for the NCAA Tournament. "The selection show is on from 2:30 to 3," Sinisi says. "The Stardust wants the numbers by 5:30." So, in less than 3 hours, Sinisi and his colleagues have to come up with point spreads on 32 games between teams from different conferences that they did not know would be playing each other. That's where Sinisi's power ratings come in handy. "You're really under the gun," he says. In the odds business, you are always under the gun. Everybody thinks they know something. "I thought I knew something when I came out here," Sinisi says. "I found out what I didn't know." Now, Sinisi knows what he knows. He and his colleagues play to their strengths. Still, in the end, one thing never changes. "At some point," Sinisi says, "you've got to have an opinion." Amazing stuff....sounds like a dream job to have.
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