I emailed Boog something about lineup configuration and I'll post here a portion of the email just to see what bobbob and the other stat gurus think.

 

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Lets assume the Baseball Stat Gurus are correct and lineup configuration only flips five games per season and also lets assume the Baseball Stat Gurus are correct when they claim that 15 additional runs equates to 1 additional win.

 

If you assume both of this assumptions are correct then lineup configuration equates to 75 additional runs per season (15 x 5).

 

I was playing with the runs created formula that the Baseball Stat Gurus swear by and as a rule of thumb for a player with 500 ABs .010 OPS points is equal to 1 run created and thus 75 runs (or lineup configuration) equates to .750 OPS (.010 x 75) points for a player with 500 ABs.

 

In other words, lineup configuration is the difference between a guy with a 1.250 OPS and a guy with a .500 OPS.

 

Do you still believe that lineup configuration doesn't matter?

 

What am I missing?

I emailed Boog something about lineup configuration and I'll post here a portion of the email just to see what bobbob and the other stat gurus think.

 

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Lets assume the Baseball Stat Gurus are correct and lineup configuration only flips five games per season and also lets assume the Baseball Stat Gurus are correct when they claim that 15 additional runs equates to 1 additional win.

 

If you assume both of this assumptions are correct then lineup configuration equates to 75 additional runs per season (15 x 5).

 

I was playing with the runs created formula that the Baseball Stat Gurus swear by and as a rule of thumb for a player with 500 ABs .010 OPS points is equal to 1 run created and thus 75 runs (or lineup configuration) equates to .750 OPS (.010 x 75) points for a player with 500 ABs.

 

In other words, lineup configuration is the difference between a guy with a 1.250 OPS and a guy with a .500 OPS.

 

Do you still believe that lineup configuration doesn't matter?

 

What am I missing?

 

 

I'll post a quick response for now, and see if I can hopefully add some more insight after I've had some time to dissect this a bit more.

 

For starters, 15 runs does not equate to 1 win. ~10 runs = 1 win. The number 10 comes up ALOT in baseball statistics attempting to calculate wins. A number very close to 10 comes up whether you use more advanced math like Markov chains or simple algebra playing around with the Pythagorean Win Percentage formula. If you'd like more of an explanation, let me know, and I'll try to explain to describe as much of the math as I can via a message board post. (The algebra way isn't all too intensive)

 

Next, some issues arise with the way you're conceiving the Runs Created formula. The formula is OBP*SLG*AB. Therefore, you can't say .010 OPS different equals 1 run. The value differs depending on how the player's OPS value breaks down. If he's OBP heavy, he generates more runs than a SLG heavy guy with the same OPS figure. Also, the closer the OBP value is to the SLG value the higher the number of runs created, keeping OPS constant.

 

An example:

- Player A: 0.340 OBP / 0.415 SLG = 70.55 Runs Created.

- Player B: 0.345 OBP / 0.420 SLG = 72.45 Runs Created (That's a .010 OPS difference and 2 runs)

 

So, let's reexamine the lineup configuration argument. 5 wins = 50 runs. If you try to create some sort of OPS Differential:Run Ratio and you use the .010:2 runs ratio from the stats I cited, you get the OPS difference drops from .750 to .250, which is much more reasonable to the 5 wins argument. (Mind you, I think the ratio thing is a bad way of using the Runs Created formula, but I'm trying to follow your same line of thinking with more precise stats)

I emailed Boog something about lineup configuration and I'll post here a portion of the email just to see what bobbob and the other stat gurus think.

 

=========

Lets assume the Baseball Stat Gurus are correct and lineup configuration only flips five games per season and also lets assume the Baseball Stat Gurus are correct when they claim that 15 additional runs equates to 1 additional win.

 

If you assume both of this assumptions are correct then lineup configuration equates to 75 additional runs per season (15 x 5).

 

I was playing with the runs created formula that the Baseball Stat Gurus swear by and as a rule of thumb for a player with 500 ABs .010 OPS points is equal to 1 run created and thus 75 runs (or lineup configuration) equates to .750 OPS (.010 x 75) points for a player with 500 ABs.

 

In other words, lineup configuration is the difference between a guy with a 1.250 OPS and a guy with a .500 OPS.

 

Do you still believe that lineup configuration doesn't matter?

 

What am I missing?

 

 

 

What you are missing is that no manager is going to bat Miguel Cabrera 9th and Hanley Ramirez 8th. That would lead to a difference of about 50 runs, if you use the absolute worst possible lineup configuration possible. In reality, 99% of the time, the biggest difference a manager will make is putting a guy like De Aza in the number 2 spot rather than a guy like Hermida. That could lead to maybe 5 runs (this is all conjecture, I'm not running the numbers on this because I've realized with you, even if I do you'll just disregard it anyways) over the course of the season. So say a manager is Jack McKeon and bats Juan Pierre first and Paul Lo Duca second in a year when they have a .325 and .332 OBP respectively, and you have guys with .399, .391, and .389 OBP in the lineup as well. If you put those guys in the leadoff spots instead, you'd probably see closer to 15-20 runs a year, but that's probably the worst example in recent memory. In all reality, it is not where you bat guys, but who is batting that matters.

I'll post a quick response for now, and see if I can hopefully add some more insight after I've had some time to dissect this a bit more.

 

For starters, 15 runs does not equate to 1 win. ~10 runs = 1 win. The number 10 comes up ALOT in baseball statistics attempting to calculate wins. A number very close to 10 comes up whether you use more advanced math like Markov chains or simple algebra playing around with the Pythagorean Win Percentage formula. If you'd like more of an explanation, let me know, and I'll try to explain to describe as much of the math as I can via a message board post. (The algebra way isn't all too intensive)

 

Next, some issues arise with the way you're conceiving the Runs Created formula. The formula is OBP*SLG*AB. Therefore, you can't say .010 OPS different equals 1 run. The value differs depending on how the player's OPS value breaks down. If he's OBP heavy, he generates more runs than a SLG heavy guy with the same OPS figure. Also, the closer the OBP value is to the SLG value the higher the number of runs created, keeping OPS constant.

 

An example:

- Player A: 0.340 OBP / 0.415 SLG = 70.55 Runs Created.

- Player B: 0.345 OBP / 0.420 SLG = 72.45 Runs Created (That's a .010 OPS difference and 2 runs)

 

So, let's reexamine the lineup configuration argument. 5 wins = 50 runs. If you try to create some sort of OPS Differential:Run Ratio and you use the .010:2 runs ratio from the stats I cited, you get the OPS difference drops from .750 to .250, which is much more reasonable to the 5 wins argument. (Mind you, I think the ratio thing is a bad way of using the Runs Created formula, but I'm trying to follow your same line of thinking with more precise stats)

I think the 15 runs would be more than the 1 win but I was just trying to quantify the impact of lineup configuration on one player's OPS using some of the numbers that have been used on here. I'll take your word on the 10 runs = 1 win but will pass on the explanation as I would probably end up with a headache. Even going with your revised differential (.250 OPS points) you're lookign at the difference between a Miguel Cabrera and a Joe Blow. That's pretty big, I think.

I think the 15 runs would be more than the 1 win but I was just trying to quantify the impact of lineup configuration on one player's OPS using some of the numbers that have been used on here. I'll take your word on the 10 runs = 1 win but will pass on the explanation as I would probably end up with a headache. Even going with your revised differential (.250 OPS points) you're lookign at the difference between a Miguel Cabrera and a Joe Blow. That's pretty big, I think.

 

I think you might just be devaluing how much a 1 win difference in performance can be or overvaluing how much a single player can do. A .250 OPS difference is basically substituting Miguel Cabrera for Jose Bautista. Now, Bautista is a good player to use for comparison because he doesn't steal bases or play great defense, and walks about as much, so Miguel Cabrera is, for the most part, a MUCH better hitting Jose Bautista.

 

WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player) tells you how many more wins a player is worth to their team than if he were to be replaced by a AAA call-up. So, let's compare Bautista and Cabrera's WARP figures.

- Bautista 2007 WARP: 3.1

- Cabrera 2007 WARP: 7.9

 

Thats a little less than a 5 win difference.

I think the 15 runs would be more than the 1 win but I was just trying to quantify the impact of lineup configuration on one player's OPS using some of the numbers that have been used on here. I'll take your word on the 10 runs = 1 win but will pass on the explanation as I would probably end up with a headache. Even going with your revised differential (.250 OPS points) you're lookign at the difference between a Miguel Cabrera and a Joe Blow. That's pretty big, I think.

 

I think you might just be devaluing how much a 1 win difference in performance can be or overvaluing how much a single player can do. A .250 OPS difference is basically substituting Miguel Cabrera for Jose Bautista. Now, Bautista is a good player to use for comparison because he doesn't steal bases or play great defense, and walks about as much, so Miguel Cabrera is, for the most part, a MUCH better hitting Jose Bautista.

 

WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player) tells you how many more wins a player is worth to their team than if he were to be replaced by a AAA call-up. So, let's compare Bautista and Cabrera's WARP figures.

- Bautista 2007 WARP: 3.1

- Cabrera 2007 WARP: 7.9

 

Thats a little less than a 5 win difference.

 

I think that is the crux of the whole issue: Polo has his own set ideas on what 1 win is equal to, so when you show him a stat that says 1 win is only equal to an extra 10 runs, he has a hard time reconciling that with what he believes, and (correct me if I am wrong) he more often than not just dismisses it out of hand rather than seeing what lies behind it.

I think the 15 runs would be more than the 1 win but I was just trying to quantify the impact of lineup configuration on one player's OPS using some of the numbers that have been used on here. I'll take your word on the 10 runs = 1 win but will pass on the explanation as I would probably end up with a headache. Even going with your revised differential (.250 OPS points) you're lookign at the difference between a Miguel Cabrera and a Joe Blow. That's pretty big, I think.

 

I think you might just be devaluing how much a 1 win difference in performance can be or overvaluing how much a single player can do. A .250 OPS difference is basically substituting Miguel Cabrera for Jose Bautista. Now, Bautista is a good player to use for comparison because he doesn't steal bases or play great defense, and walks about as much, so Miguel Cabrera is, for the most part, a MUCH better hitting Jose Bautista.

 

WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player) tells you how many more wins a player is worth to their team than if he were to be replaced by a AAA call-up. So, let's compare Bautista and Cabrera's WARP figures.

- Bautista 2007 WARP: 3.1

- Cabrera 2007 WARP: 7.9

 

Thats a little less than a 5 win difference.

When I said I was taking your word on the 10 runs = 1 win I meant what I said. I guess maybe it came through as if I was dismissing it but I wasn't.

 

Which one is the stat that's similar to WARP but excludes the defensive portion? Is it runs created or was it another one?

 

In runs created Miguel has created 60 more runs than Bautista. Some of it, about 11, is because Miguel has more ABs. Is there a way to to get runs created per AB? Isn't that basically OPS? A probelm with runs created is what's happening with Hermida now. He's was hitting well but has become a part-time player through no fault of his own and because of it his run created number suffers because he's not accumulating ABs... the higher the ABs the higher your runs created number.

Runs creates/27 outs. It's on every players Baseball reference page.

 

The stat you are looking for that is similar to WARP is VORP, which is a counting stat that (essentially) counts how many runs over a AAA player you are adding. I'm pretty sure VORP is another of the 10=1 win stats.

Runs creates/27 outs. It's on every players Baseball reference page.

 

The stat you are looking for that is similar to WARP is VORP, which is a counting stat that (essentially) counts how many runs over a AAA player you are adding. I'm pretty sure VORP is another of the 10=1 win stats.

 

 

Yea. VORP is very close to the 10=1 win stat. The translation from VORP to WARP isn't a perfect 10:1 ratio for a variety of factors, but it's normally really close.

Isn't a player's vorp usually pretty much in line with a player's BRAR?

Isn't a player's vorp usually pretty much in line with a player's BRAR?

Give or take a couple of runs, but they are separate calculations arrived at using different methods. I'll let the guy who came up with BRAR explain it in his own words:

 

...they both are trying to represent the same concept -- runs contributed above replacement level. I developed VORP, and Clay [Davenport] developed BRAR independently.

 

We both ended up at Baseball Prospectus (Clay's an original BP-er, I came along a couple of years later), and Clay hasn't had the heart to smack me down yet.

 

The differences in results boil down mainly to slightly different ways Clay and I define replacement level, along with subtle tweaks in the run estimator formulae used, how positional averages are calculated, park factors in use, and the random number generator I apply to each of Clay's reports (shhhh! It's our secret).

Thats pretty much what I figured. They always seem extremely close when I look them up. But WARP uses BRAR+FRAR and then divided by whatever they define a win being worth?

 

To be honest, though I've never been able to find the formula for WARP (and neither can anyone else outside of BP, apparently) I always pretty much assumed it was that, as it generally adds up pretty well in most cases.

Runs creates/27 outs. It's on every players Baseball reference page.

Is this park adjusted? Either way I like this bettwer than Runs Created because it takes the counting stat portion out of it.

 

To answer my own question about a way to get runs created per AB all you have to do is multiply OBP x SLG and you get runs created per AB.