Posted March 15, 201015 yr An interesting article was written in The Hardball Times recently on the attempt - many times futile - to take a rookie's first season numbers and extrapolate that into what type of player they'll end up becoming. The first player the writer considered was our very own Chris Coghlan. Here is what he wrote... Eight sophomores by Geoff Young March 10, 2010 Eight position players made their big-league debuts in 2009 and collected at least 400 plate appearances. I thought it would be interesting to go back through history in search of analogous players so that we might get some sense of what to expect going forward from these eight. The basic approach was to identify players who debuted at the same age and who put up similar numbers, then see how those players' careers progressed. We'll look at each of last year's debutantes and their analogs in descending order of OPS+. Chris Coghlan, Florida Marlins, LF, age 24 565 PA, .321/.390/.460, 122 OPS+ There have been 87 players in MLB history to debut at age 24 and collect at least 400 plate appearances, ranging from Mike Hargrove at the top (.323/.395/.424, 140 OPS+ in 1974) to Rob Picciolo at the bottom (.200/.218/.258, 31 OPS+ in 1977). Coghlan checks in at No. 8 on that list. Several interesting names pop up in the same general vicinity of Coghlan. Most are his contemporaries (Denard Span), played in a vastly different era (Del Pratt, Art Griggs, George Anderson, Art Devlin), exhibited a different skill set (Roy Foster, Wally Joyner), or are some combination thereof (Wally Judnich, Eric Hinske). This leaves us with one name. It's not a perfect fit, but it is intriguing: Mark Grace. Here's a direct comparison of their rookie campaigns: Player Year Pos PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ BB K Coghlan 2009 LF 565 .321 .390 .460 122 53 77 Grace 1988 1B 550 .296 .371 .403 119 60 43 Coghlan had more power, while Grace displayed superior plate discipline. Coghlan won the National League Rookie of the Year, while Grace finished a close second to Cincinnati's Chris Sabo. Grace went on to become a three-time All-Star who collected more than 2,400 hits in his career and finished with a career line of .303/.383/.442 (119 OPS+). If we extend our search to include players who received a cup of coffee before age 24, we find an even better fit, Pittsburgh's Orlando Merced: Player Year Pos PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ BB K Coghlan 2009 LF 565 .321 .390 .460 122 53 77 Merced 1991 1B 478 .275 .373 .399 119 64 81 Like Grace, Merced finished second (to Jeff Bagwell) in NL ROY voting. Merced is a guy who was forgotten almost immediately after he hung up his spikes in 2003, but his career numbers (.277/.355/.426, 107 OPS+ in 4,530 PA) are more than respectable. If Coghlan sticks around for 13 seasons and collects more than 1,100 big-league hits, I don't imagine he'll complain. The rest can be read here: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/eight-sophomores/ I can very easily see Chris Coghlan remaining/becoming a Mark Gracesque hitter - good contact/plate discipline with some pop (though a bit more pop in Coghlan's case). That seems like a much more likely scenario than becoming a flash in the pan like Orlando Merced. A lot of times these types of exercises are pointless, but the Grace type-career (with some more power) seems to fit Coghlan pretty well.
March 15, 201015 yr Interesting read. Man, if Coghlan can have the kind of career Mark Grace had, we're gonna be in good shape. Let's just hope he doesn't become Eric Hinske.
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