April 13, 200422 yr In baseball, it is extremely hard not to accept what you see today as an indicator of the way things will be tomorrow. A 5-1 start by the Tigers? Clearly they are going to pull off the greatest turnaround in the history of the sport and carry the division. A 1-5 opening by the Mariners? It's hopeless. They might as well have a fire sale and see what they can get for their core players. Fans and media alike have to respond to what is going on at the moment. After all, that is the nature of news. Nobody is going to want to read a story that has this as its headline: LOCALS WILL REGRESS TO MEAN BY MEMORIAL DAY It's just not going to sell papers. Instead, when you peruse the MLB Insider site lines, you're going to see stories about sophomore slumps, breakouts seasons, new attitudes, new approaches working wonders, dramatic downturns and miracle turnarounds. In a few cases, some of these early results are actually indications of things to come. In most, though, they will not stand the heat of late spring and summer and will be completely forgotten by the first frost of autumn. Today, with a whole week of the season under our belts, let's look at the top ten players in OPS in each league and try to figure out who the imposters are in their midst. American League Javy Lopez Baltimore Orioles:Last year, Lopez had one of the best offensive showings of any catcher ever. Had he not sat down for Greg Maddux's starts so that he could use his personal catcher, his counting stats would have been even more alarming. To think he could repeat what he did is hoping for a lot, but here he is, starting off like he's going to do just that. Anything over .900 is gravy. If he cracks 1.000, it's gold. Travis Hafner Cleveland Indians: Hafner deserves a full-time major league job. No, he's not going to hit like this all year, but doing so in the first week might be just the thing to ensure him the playing time he should be having anyway. Troy Glaus Hi, I'm Troy Glaus. You might remember me from such seasons as "Angels of 2001" and, "My Big, Fat 1.000 OPS of 2000." Jose Offerman, Minnesota Twins:No. Jose Cruz, Tampa Bay Devils Rays: He's 30 and has a career high of .857 three years ago. I think he might be keeping the spot warm for teammate Aubrey Huff Carlos Pena,Detroit Tigers: When Pena was a prospect in the Rangers system and when he was in his early days with the A's, this is just where people were projecting he would end up. Now that he's here, what to make of it? The one walk in 25 plate appearances is troubling. If he ends up improving on his career mark of .775 by ten percent, that would be nice. Rondell White, Detroit Tigers: Can a player hit for enough power in Comerica Park to maintain a 1.000-plus slugging average? I don't think White is the man to answer that question, but if he can approach .900, he'll do a lot for this team. David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox: He'll be here in the end, especially if he can avoid the lefties, against whom he's off to a .636 OPS start so far. Magglio Ordonez, Chicago White Sox:Yes, when the others are gone, he will still be here. By coincidence, he's ninth right now, just where he finished last year. Hank Blalock, Texas Rangers: Room must be made for Manny Ramirez (who is lurking at 11th right now), Carlos Delgado, Alex Rodriguez Jason Giambi and Carlos Beltran, so somebody like Blalock could be forced out. However, if he can improve last year's number of .872 by just five to seven percent -- which is not unreasonable -- he'd end up in top ten territory. National League Charles Johnson,Colorado Rockies: He's not going to post the best OPS at the end of 2004, but he could match what he did in 2000 when he had a career-high .961 when playing with the White Sox and Orioles. The combination of playing half his games in Coors, staying healthy and a new, more compact swing could well return Johnson to the spotlight. Adam DunnCincinnati Reds:With his skill set, he is supposed to be a top ten OPS player. Remember, it was the loss of 35 points on his batting average that killed his season last year. The power skills survived intact. He's not going to hit .381 as he is right now, but if he hits .275, that's going to prop up his OPS very nicely. Barry Bonds, San Francisco Giants: Voted Most Likely to Maintain a 1.430 OPS by his classmates at SBC Park. Ray LankfordSt. Louis Cardinals:Woh! What year is this? Mr. Lankford has not played enough to qualify for a batting title since 1998, so it's highly unlikely he'll still be on this list come September. However, when you've been away for over a year, it's got to feel great to get off to a start like this. If his playing time is regulated properly, he can contribute to the Cards. 502 plate appearances is a long shot. Adrian Beltre, Los Angeles Dodgers: Four years ago, the concept of Beltre in the top ten in OPS someday would not have raised an eyebrow. Now it seems like destiny delayed. Obviously, he won't crack 1.000 in 2004, but if he could use this start as a pacesetter and better that career high of .835 from 2000, it would be an incredible boon to the Dodgers. Richard Hidalgo, Houston Astros:He's looking like a top tenner. He's had the career spike (2000) and tumble but he's in his prime now. Another season like last one's .957 will land him right about where he is now: sixth or seventh in the league. Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals: Just biding his time until the gravity starts pulling the pretenders down past him. Paul Lo Duca, Los Angeles Dodgers:A nice start but that's all it is. However, if the 2001 Lo Duca has shown up with the 2000 Beltre, and the 2002 Shawn Green makes an appearance joined by the 2003 Milton Bradley (pre-injury), then the Dodgers will rule the west. Jeff Bagwell, Houston Astros: Yes, he is still top ten material. Lowell, Florida Marlins: Lowell just nipped Brent Mayne of the Diamondbacks to sneak into the top ten, a place he has the talent to stay for the rest of the year. Mayne just had a good 21 at bat run is all. Kaz Matsui is lurking too, courtesy of drawing as many walks as Barry Bonds.
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