Ive heard this theory from numerous circles both left and right:

 

From time to time on this site I have spoken of the real contest for the presidency -- the race within the "big three" of Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. Noted poll analyst Charlie Cook has written an essay on the same subject, saying the race for the presidency will likely be won or lost within these three states. Whomever wins two of the three states will likely be the next president. The candidate that wins only one of the three must sweep numerous additional small states to overcome the boost that his presidency is taking. That is currently easier for Bush than Kerry, but isn't likely to happen either way. http://www.race2004.net

 

 

Interesting theory. I think Bush takes Ohio and Kerry takes Pennsylvania. Which leaves one state.... :mischief2

 

I should be getting my Florida absentee ballot soon.

All of a sudden New Jersey is a battleground state as well. but yeah, it comes down to these 4 states. Namely Florida which is probably won by less than a few thousand votes.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

 

Kerry takes the electoral lead with PEN and FLA hopping on the Kerry boat.

Youre right, NJ is battleground now. But I dont think New Jersey stays battleground. I forget where I read it but I think it was a NJ senator talking about it. He says two reasons why it is close now. 1. Backlash over the democrat Governmer and the affiar.2. The RNC convention having a spillover affect. He says that this wont stay. People in NJ list as their most imporant issue, healthcare, the enviroment, and other domestic issues that Bush has not done well on. Terror isnt usually the top of their list. That doesnt bode well for Bush pulling off hte Jersey upset. I think its about as likely as Kerry taking NC or Tennessee, which were also slipping but went back to Bush.

i love my vote meaning little in the whole scheme of things.

Here is how American Research Group sees this right now:

 

George W. Bush is at 47% and John Kerry is at 46% in the weighted national popular vote.

 

Bush leads outside the margin of error in 17 states with 133 electoral votes.

 

Kerry leads outside the margin of error in 10 states with 132 electoral votes.

 

Bush has any lead in 29 states with 253 electoral votes.

 

Kerry has any lead in 20 states with 270 electoral votes.

 

Bush and Kerry are tied in Wisconsin and West Virginia.

 

Bush needs to defend small leads in 5 states - Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Ohio.

 

Kerry needs to defend small leads in 5 states - Maine, Florida, Minnesota, Oregon, and Pennsylvania.

 

Among men nationwide, 51% say they would vote for Bush and 42% say they would vote for Kerry.

 

Among women nationwide, 42% say they would vote for Bush and 50% say they would vote for Kerry.

 

Note also, that it looks like Colorado will be passing the law which splits its electoral votes based on percentage of votes.

i love my vote meaning little in the whole scheme of things.

568598[/snapback]

 

Move out of Texas! Just kidding.

 

 

The national poll might be important too in terms of mandate.

Pa's not going anywhere but to Kerry, all my conservative friends here agree. Santorum is probably the only conservative that can be elected state wide here and I believe that's mainly due to looks. Ridge and Spector are two big moderates which is why a moderate could get elected here.

 

However a lot of republican moderates in Montgomery County will usually lean with the moderate democrat(which despite what Sean Hannity will tell you fits Kerry)

 

2000- Went Gore

02 - Went Rendell

04 - Republicans took the virtually independent Spector over The Ultra Conservative in Toomey in the primarys.