1998 versus 2006

I am sick and tired of the 1998 versus 2006 hating the media is giving this club. Before you see what I've done, I understand players like Olivo and Hanley are not going to start full time, etc... but very generally speaking, I can't see how this team produces like the 98 one. I just can't see it. If I was a sportswriter, I'd atleast look and see what kind of depth the Marlins had when they traded away the vets, and not just assume they are filling all the spots with low-production, low potential triple aaa players. Likewise, I'd look and see why the 98 squad was so amazingly awful. There are clear reasons. I know this might be "stating the obvious" for many of you here, but I just had to write it down to give a big FU to Tristan Cockcroft saying on ESPN today "one can argue the 2006 Marlins have less depth than the 1998 team."

Hitting

Catcher: Zaun, CJ, Redmond, Knorr. .214/.294/.370

Olivo Career .229/.275/.389

2006 Projection: Same awful production. Wash.

1B: Lee/Jackson: .232/.304/.399

2005 Jacobs: Majors .310/.385/.710, AA .321/.376/.589

2006 Projection: Anything less then .260/.340/.430 is a dissapointment. Big upgrade, maybe substantial.

2B: Counsel/Berganator: .272/.367/.384

Pokey Career: .248/.307/.352

Uggla 2005 AA: .297/.347/.502

2006 Projection: splitting time, something like .240/.310/.380. Big OBP downgrade.

SS: Renteria/Sea Bass: .239/.299/.334

Hanley 2005 AA: .271/.335/.385

2006 Projection: It can't be worse then .239/.299/.334 even if he isn't ready. This will be a wash.

3B: Zeile/Orie/Bonilla: .278/.351/.430

Cabera 2005: .323/.385/.561

2006 Projection: HUGE MASSIVE upgrade

OF: Dunwoody/Sheffield: .256/.312/.408 (Shef is really helping Todd here in only 136 AB)

Willingham AAA 2005: .324/.455/.676

2006 Projection: .270/.350/.450. Huge upgrade

OF: Kotsay .279/.318/.403

Aguila Career: .236/.266/.366, he does rake in AAA though fwiw

2006 Projection: .250/.290/.380. Pretty much, worst starting OF in baseball. This is a big downgrade.

OF: Cliffy .282/.337/.481

Hermida 2005 AA: .293/.457/.518. Short stint majors, .293/.383/.634

2006 Projection: Anything less then .270/.350/.440 is a dissapointment. This is a wash.

This one is going to be very rough

Bench: Cangelosi, Luis Castillo, Wehner, Eisenreich .231/.320/.287 (how is the OBP higher then slugging???)

2005 Helms .298/.356/.458

Reed Career Minors .286/.335/.368

Amezaga Career .207/.265/.313

2006 Projection: I would guess somewhere along the lines of .240/.320/.350, with Helms being a lot of that slugging. Regardless, overall point is it should still be a very comparably weak bench, but it will hit for more power. Which is a slight upgrade. Getting a CF (big priority) and moving Aguila to the 4th OF spot helps this bench as well.

Overall Hitting assesment.

HUGE upgrades at 3B, LF

Potential major upgrade at 1B, at worst a moderate upgrade

Slight Upgrade in the Bench

Wash at C, SS, and RF

Big downgrades at 2B and CF

Marlins scored 667 runs in 1998. I will be absolutely shocked if they don't score 700, more then likely in the 715+ range with this team adding no one right now. In case you are wondering, the 2005 Marlins scored 717. If this team can replace Pierre's 2005 .326 OBP in the # 1 spot in the lineup (Gathright would do better, regardless if you believe he is worth Olsen or not), they will hands down score more runs then last year's club. If Jacobs, Hermida, and Willingham all decide to hit 25+ instead of 18-22 each, they might score a lot more runs.

Pitching.

Ace: Livan. 234 IP, 4.72 era, 1.57 whip, 162 K

2005 Willis 236 IP, 22-10, 2.63 era, 1.13 whip, 170 K

2006 Projection: 220 IP, 3.20 era, 1.20 whip, 160 k. Outrageous massive stupid upgrade

# 2 SP: Meadows, 174 IP, 5.21 era, 1.54 whip, 88 K

2005 Vargas: 73 IP, 4.03 era, 1.38 whip, 59 K

2006 Projection: 180 IP, 4.30 era, 1.32 whip, 140 K. Big upgrade

# 3 SP: Jesus Sanchez 173 IP, 4.47 era, 1.55 whip, 137 K

2005 Moehler: 158 IP, 4.55 era, 1.52 whip, 95 k

2006 Projection: 150 IP, 4.60 era, 1.50 whip, 90 k. I'm going to say a miniscule downgrade because Sanchez was lefty and struck out more hitters, even though the end results will be similar.

# 4 SP

Kirt Ojala 125 IP, 4.25 era, 1.50 whip, 75 K

Andy Larkin 74 IP, 9.64 era, 2.09 whip, 43 K (Im not making that era up. Not a typo)

2005 Mitre: 60 IP, 5.37 era, 1.41 whip, 37 K

2005 Combined AA/MLB Scott Olsen: 100 IP, 3.94 era, 1.32 whip, 115 K. (MLB whip 1.52)

2006 Projections: I don't want to anticipate how many starts Mitre/Olsen each get, which makes it impossible to come up with a true projection like the previoius three. But anyway you look at it, Andy Larkin was so amazingly awful in 1998, even a disaster from Mitre and Olsen will probably outproduce THAT. I would guess these two pitch a very high 4/low 5 era, and have a 1.40-1.45 whip, and decent K numbers because of Olsen. This is a big 2006 upgrade, and the longterm potential with Olsen compared to Ojala/Larkin makes this a MASSIVELY different situation then 1998.

# 5 SP. Be afraid. Be very afraid.

Rafael Medina 67 IP, 6.02 era, 1.90 whip, 45 K

Ryan Dempster 54 IP, 7.08 era, 2.01 whip, 43 K

Joe Fontenot, 42 IP, 6.33 era, 1.78 whip, 30 K

Eric Ludwick, 33 IP, 7.44 era, 1.92 whip, 27 K

You are a bigger marlins fan then I if you could correctly identify those 4. I am going on an hour and fifteen minutes now and at some point today I do have to work at my job, so I am not going to post what Johnson, Petit, and Nolasco each did in double AA last year (all very good, Petit exceptional). But if you split those guys up into 30 starts, I think we are looking at something like 180 IP, a 5.00-5.50 era, 1.40-1.50 whip, 150 K, and flashes of brillance. I think this is a good situation for the Marlins, being able to throw them all out there for 10-15 starts each ala Vargas last year to get them some MLB experience, and not absolutely throw them to the wolves and overexpose them. I would bet money all three of the guys I just mentioned have better initial stints in the majors then the 4 guys the Marlins threw out their in 1998. This will be at worst, a moderate upgrade.

Bullpen

There really wasn't a closer, so here are the top 7 most prominent arms

Vic Darensbourg 71 IP, 3.38 era, 1.15 whip, 74 K (unlucky 0-7 record I add)

Antonio Alfonseca 70 IP, 4.08 era, 1.53 whip, 46 K

Brian Edmondson 59 IP, 3.79 era, 1.53 whip, 32 K

Matt Mantei 54 IP, 2.96 era, 1.12 whip, 63 K

Felex Heredia 41 IP, 5.49 era, 1.71 whip, 38 K

Rob Stanifer 48 IP, 5.63 era, 1.58 whip, 30 K

Jay Powell 36 IP, 4.21 era, 1.60 whip, 24 K

So overall, the Marlins had 2 exceptional RP with Mantei and Darensbourg, two decent (this is very generous) with Alfonseca and Edmondson, and downright awful backend with Heredia, Stanifer, and Powell.

2005 stats unless noted

Borowski 46 IP, 4.47 era, 1.08 whip, 27 K

Herges 2004: 65 IP, 5.24 era, 1.70 whip, 39 K (His 04 is equally as awful as the 05, just more IP to go by)

Bowyer AAA: 74 IP, 2.78 era, 1.22 whip, 96 K. MLB 10 IP, 5.59 era, 1.34 whip, 12 K

Resop AA: 49 IP, 2.57 era, 1.29 whip, 56 K. MLB 17 IP, 8.47 era, 1.82 whip, 15 K

Bump 38 IP, 4.03 era, 1.45 whip, 18 K

Messenger AAA: 49 IP, 3.88 era, 1.29 whip, 35 K. MLB 37 IP, 5.35 era, 1.86 whip, 29 K

Kensing, Ligtenberg, MeGrew, Tankersly, who cares.

I would look at Borowski's whip, understand that era is all HR he gave up in chicago, and safely assume he can replace Mantei or Darensbourg in a production, non-strikeout capacity. He'll be ok. The real trick is going to be turning Bowyer into the other one... which I don't see happening with his control problems. Regardless, I see him being better then the 2nd tier of RP (Alfonseca and Edmondson) the 98 squad had, giving the Marlins an OK 8-9 option. It's going to be up to Bump, Resop, Messenger, and Herges to outperform Alfonseca, Edmondson, Powell, and Stanifer. That's going to be tough. This is clearly the weakest link on the 06 team, and overall I think the pen will be a moderate downgrade unless they bring someone in, or they get a big surprise from Resop, or whoever.

Overall Pitching

Besides Moehler pitching 25 starts, every spot in the rotation should be substantially better then the 98 squad. The bullpen is going to be atrocious just like 98, but the starting pitching should make up the differance and provide an overall pretty significant net-gain in pitching. Even if they trade Olsen for Gathright, the pitching will be better. Johnson, Nolasco, and Petit will be able to hang.

Overall Team

The 98 squad had a 54-108 record, 667/890 run differential. Absolutely terrible. If everything stays the same on the Marlins right now, and I am low balling this to be as fair as possible, I see a 700/810 run differential for the team. That's an incredible 110+ run swing compared to 98.

Similar recent run differentials

2005 Orioles: 729/800 - 74-88

2005 Tigers: 724/787 - 71-91

2005 DBacks: 696/856 - 77-85 (got really lucky, W/L should flip with 2005 Dodgers)

2005 Dodgers: 685/755 - 71-91

2004 BJays: 719/823 - 67-94

2004 Mariners: 698/823 - 63-99

Right now, I think the 2004 Blue Jays line seems most realistic.... but I would anticipate a little better W/L because the NL East, is not the AL East. 68-72 wins right now. They will avoid the 100 losses most people think they will get. If everything goes right: they get Gathright or a legitimate CF to push Aguila to the bench; Hermida, Willingham, or Jacobs really start mashing; find a solid 1-2 RP somewhere; atleast 1 of the rookie SP pitchers break out in an Ervin Santana or better type way; this could be a 75-80 win ballclub. Which, would be absolutely amazing. They won't be the 2005 A's, but I will be really happy if can get into the mid 70s in wins. I'll be satisfied with 70 though. That'll be a nice step forward for how young this team is.

Fin