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MarlinsLou

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MarlinsLou last won the day on December 9 2022

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  1. So what's the point of having fanship over a team, and especially this team - we just want to sit in a circle and be sad? Should there be no engagement since they're (likely) going to do nothing of merit or kick the can to next year (which they are elite at)? So we all just bail since they are going to do nothing? Quite frankly, I think April is going to be VERY quiet as winter brings optimism (even if remote), and this may be the high point of the "season" as who is going to watch this product again? At least there is minor hope they do grow up with some moves until spring training.
  2. Delusional - do you think I have confidence in them? Also, do I shit on your posts constantly? So don't try and play the victim card here. It's beneath you.
  3. Why are you here and typing 27,000 posts?
  4. I think getting those guys alone sucks as mentioned above. Let's assume Turner/Conforto were to cost $25m dollars in payroll. If I'm trying to figure out how best to serve this franchise longterm and Bruce says you have $25m to spend. It's not signing those guys - it's absorption. Yankees are in luxury tax hell. Donaldson makes 1/$27.5 then a $6m buyout next year. Hicks makes 1/$10.7, and then $9.7m, $9.7m, and $1m buyout (yikes). Same positions as Turner and Conforto. IF the Marlins were to absorb $25m of Donaldson and Hicks in 2023 (so Marlins $25m, Yankees $13m) - which is what Turner and Conforto make, Yankees eat Donaldson buyout and half of Hicks here on out (so Marlins have Hicks for $4.5m in 2024 and 2025 and Yankees pay the buyout)..... Donaldson/Hicks have a 3 WAR 2023 projection and Turner/Conforto a 4 WAR projection. Of course, Conforto *could* explode (would he?) so the upside is much better with him, but you didn't just bail the Yankees out of $25m in 2023 here, they are a 2x Luxury tax payor so you've bailed the Yankees out of $37.5m in 2023 and got another $9m off their books eating part of Hicks for a nominal amount in 24/25. That is a lot of money. This is saving the Yankees $50m on those players. So why not do something like this if our north star is Bruce has $25m to spend. Yankees - Braxton Garrett, Joey Wendle, and saving $32 million dollars in 2023, and $9-14m dollars in 2024/2025 combined depending on luxury status Marlins - Donaldson, Hicks, Peraza, Pereira, Throw-in Outside top 20 arm(s) (The $37.5m number changed because Wendle makes some money. They'd roll out IKF/Wendle at SS, Cabrera/LeMahieu/Wendle at 3B, and wait on Volpe/Sweeney. They could also just sign Swanson and accept luxury hell, but they cleared out all that deadweight money for them so do they care?) Peraza is very very good and they love him so something notable will have to go back with Garrett. A controlled lefty the Marlins can burn? Sign me up for a longterm SS who looks great. Pereira is 2024 starter and they can slum with Hicks/Sanchez/DLC/Bleday in CF until it happens. Donaldson is likely traded to a contender at the deadline so they'll likely save some money there if he looks good. He could be a good DH contender someone can pick up for nothing. Who cares TBH. So now you got SS and CF figured out on paper, and basically all of this money sheds off by 2024 as who cares about those limited amounts Hicks makes. Also, Marlins still have $5m to spend here since I'm hypothetically moving Wendle, so find a bulk reliever to be 6th SP/bullpen for 2023. Is this a contending team? Fuck no, but this is a lot smarter than some 1 and done Turner/Conforto deals. And yes, this is a kick the can/move the goalpost decision but *this* at least makes sense. And you still got Pablo to trade so you could jack up the Blue jays for Danny Jansen/Orelvis Martinez/others (now you gain salary with jansen, but lose with Pablo so now you have $8m to spend in 2023). All of a sudden the team looks like this: Jansen, Fortes (Stallings can be moved for whatever) Cooper (With Berry coming) Jazz (Edwards AAA) Peraza, Rojas Donaldson, Berti (with Groshans and AAA and O. Martinez coming after) DLC, Sanchez (with Bleday in AAA still) Hicks (with Pereira coming) Garcia Soler Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Rogers, $8m Stop Gap 2023 SP (with Eury, Eder, Meyer, Sixto, AND Fulton coming) And the bullpen is average at best, but you'd hope a SP trickle down eventually happens here... or just fucking trade Salas/whoever for David Bednar because you don't need 2B/SS/3B as you just got Peraza and O. Martinez who are absolutely massive prospects. This cost you Pablo, Garrett, Wendle, and absorbing a lot of Donaldson/Hicks. Now THAT is how you spend $25m. Fuck this Turner/Conforto bullshit. If you're going to be cheap, you MUST be creative.
  5. Yes - and they still COULD do it! Maybe they had to wait for Rodon to get off the board and now the top 5 SP available in the league are Pablo, Rogers, Cabrera, Garrett, and Luzardo, and I don't think that is hyperbole as who wants to give Eovaldi $80m when you could trade some FV50 prospects or two for those guys making peanuts and controlled for 2, 4, 6, 6, and 4 years there. But Bruce seemingly is that cheap.
  6. Sure, but also look at the projection - https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=20 Sandy, Jazz, dare I say Garcia, Luzardo, Rogers, Cabrera, Rogers, and the bullpen might all be 1+ WAR low. While they are very kind to the catchers, MI/SS, and "team LF who is also playing CF," they are underselling some of the upside here. It's just very said - a $110m Marlins team would be really good and we could easily project them to the Phillies/Brewers (top 12-15 team in baseball) as the 6th best team in the NL. So they'd have a chance even with Uncle Steve flexing with backup catchers for $15m ala yesterday.
  7. Why are you yelling, I/we know this
  8. Given that this team needs a minimum 7-8 WAR influx of talent to contend (i.e. compete with Phillies/Brewers/Giants as last wild card as ATL/NYM-STL-LAD/SD is pretty set IMO), none of this moves the needle. Just look at the Marlins projection - https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=20 So let's say they did sign Turner for 500 PA, Conforto for 550 PA, and they do trade for some other upgrade (Jansen, Rosario, Varsho/Thomas, etc.). This is definitely an offensive improvement over 1600-1700 PA, and those guys might all collectively be 7+ WAR of talent.... but you are losing something as some pitcher must be traded for one of the younger guys on top (-1 WAR at least), and then the Marlins do have competent low end 1-2 WAR players at the positions/PA those would be replacing.... so best case scenario doing "all" of that is the 37 WAR projection might move to 40 WAR if it works out perfect This is STILL 4+ WAR to go to get to Philly/Milwaukee, i.e. if they did this and they could have dropped Correa/Rodon on top and got there. Ship obviously sailed. So if that is not going to happen, why sign these guys? Effectively, they need to sign Swanson OR trade for Reynolds and Bednar/Brubaker. That'll become some OOMPH production, and then taking on 2-3 of these smaller acquisitions (Turner in both scenarios, Conforto if you did sign Swanson and then trade for an Arizona CF and sign a SP, Jansen, etc.) make sense. If they are going to half ass it and the whole offseason is Conforto and Turner, why spend as it's just burning money? Unless the idea is there will be more than 1 deadline trade this year?
  9. I can just link to the daily depression - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/why-are-teams-issuing-extremely-long-contracts/ We all know this, but Bruce (and 8+ other ownership groups) really have no shot as they don't have enough money. You gotta probably have $2b+ to be competitive moving forward (at least 10 ownership groups do not have this wealth) as the big guys are just going to steam roll you, and then there is Steve on top of that who is a whole different level to steam roll further in this division. Mets, Braves, and Nationals have 1st, 3rd, and 6th-8th wealthiest ownership groups and the Phillies are a poor 13th-17th range. Bruce is last or second to last (Reds), and the delta to the Phillies is enormous let alone the others. So we're just going to keep counting anniversaries from 2003 as it's not going to happen again absent incredible successive drafting/IFA signing and creativity.
  10. I vote for Milwaukee, a little guy who tries and we can take enjoyment if they had not traded Yelich and further extended like Milwaukee did, they'd be fucked. Also because I think some of your *might* want the Cardinals to always lose for reasons unstated.
  11. Doesn't seem like it. My guess is they do get a CF (Reynolds, Arizona, etc.), sign some underwhelming 1B/3B type, sign some extremely cheap underwhelming pitching (Bass-$3m type), and then win 79 games and gaslight everyone that we did awesome, we won 10+ games with a sub $90m payroll. I wonder who will be left at that point.
  12. No, we're about the end of the road here for the Marlins to become adults. It's getting close to impossible to find 10+ wins this offseason without a CHUNK guy like Rodon/Swanson. Plan Z would I suppose be give the Pirates a nuclear prospect deal for Reynolds/Bednar and/or Eury is thrown into the mix for Corbin Carroll. While still moving SP for the Arraez/Rosario/Polanco/Jansen kind of guys who are likely available and are clear upgrades, plus then really going to the SP scrapheap and finding many CHEAP Thompson 2021/Bass 2022 contributors to bridge to whatever SP is left in the farm and hope Sandy/the rest can carry them. But now you've hurt 25-29 doing this basically exclusively through the farm and the whole point of free agency is to generate value. So this makes less sense too as you can't do this solely through your own drafting. Even the Rays sign Eflin. So the final answer, Plan Z is moving the goal post to opening day 2024 and beating your chest with this: Sandy, Pablo, Rogers, Eury, Luzardo Cabrera, Meyer, Sixto, Bender, Chargois/Enright/Whoever Garrett, Eder, Scott/Okert Could be the best staff in baseball even if they don't hit, so now we rinse/repeat - is Bruce going to spend on bats NOW with a Fortes-X-Jazz-X-Groshans/Berti-DLC/Sanchez-X-Garcia-Soler core and nothing else as Berry/Salas/Cappe are still 1-2 years away? To note, there is no high end CF in next year's free agency class again so this is the definition of insanity.
  13. If they fix CF, 1B/3B platoon partner for Cooper/Berti, upgrade Fortes or Stallings, and get another pitcher - SURE. Rojas/Wendle could easily be a competent 2.5-3 WAR scenario over 900+ PA (fangraphs has them 3.6 WAR over 1,000 PA which seems optimistic to me so I'm shaving a "win" here). So go get Alek Thomas Actually sign Justin Turner Figure out some trade for Danny Jansen Sign a pitcher - and you have budget for Rodon but shit, there are many that work here, and if you didn't lose 2 big ones for Thomas and Jansen here this can even be a good reliever. Like is that bare minimum plan hard? Or are we going to keep dancing the Cha Cha?
  14. They don't deserve ANY of us. I checked out 4 months last season, but winter springs optimism. I'll check out again even earlier this year for sure absent real moves.
  15. This is a good example on relentless, but the Mariners are running $120-150m budgets last 5 years (excluding 1 year and covid year). If Bruce let Kim have Mariners budgets, we'd have Correa, Eflin, Turner/Drury, and be able to trade two current SP + one mega prospect trade to get Reynolds/Arizona CF and a fancy RP on top, plus maybe more. So we can pray for future Mariners budgets too.
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