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Playoff Preview - National League Divisional Series

by Chris Dial

 

The National League Divisional Series

 

The Florida Marlins versus the San Francisco Giants

 

Game 1

Starter G GS W-L ERA

J. Beckett ® 24 23 9-8 3.04

J. Schmidt ® 29 29 17-5 2.34

 

Game 2

Starter G GS W-L ERA

B. Penny ® 32 32 14-10 4.13

S. Ponson ® 10 10 3-6 3.71

 

Game 3

Starter G GS W-L ERA

K. Rueter (L) 27 27 10-5 4.53

M. Redman ® 29 29 14-9 3.59

 

Game 4

Starter G GS W-L ERA

J. Williams ® 21 21 7-5 3.30

D. Willis (L) 27 27 14-6 3.30

 

Game 5

See Game 1

The Marlins have been simply phenomenal since Jack McKeon took over in May. Will the magic continue? At first thought, one might think the Marlins are over-matched by the Giants, but with McKeon declaring in advance that they wouldn?t be pitching to Barry Bonds, the playing field levels a bit ? and you can read more about when you should walk Bonds in Tango?s work.

 

The starters are pretty even. Jason Schmidt is significantly better than anyone the Marlins have, but after that, park effects wash any perceived advantage the Giant starters have. The season series didn?t go well for the Marlins, with the Giants winning 5 of 6 games.

 

What about the lineups?

 

The Marlins

 

J. Pierre, CF

L. Castillo, 2B

I. Rodriguez, C

M. Lowell, 3B

J. Conine/M. Cabrera, LF

J. Encarnacion, RF

D. Lee, 1B

A. Gonzalez, SS

 

Schmidt owns Castillo and Pierre. Mike Lowell is 3 for 32 in Pac Bell Park. Ivan Rodriguez is wearing down, seeing his OPS drop 30 points in August and another 40 points in September. I don?t know what McKeon is going to do with Jeff Conine, but I suspect he?ll be playing ahead of Miguel Cabrera in left field. Conine has never played in PacBell. What struck me as unusual is how well the bottom part of the Marlins lineup has handled the stadium. Both Derrek Lee and Juan Encarnacion have hit very well in San Fran, but they have a heavy load to bear.

 

The Giants

 

R. Durham, 2B

J. Snow, 1B

R. Aurilia, SS

B. Bonds, LF

M. Grissom, CF

B. Santiago, C

E. Alfonzo, 3B

J. Cruz, RF

 

The Giants lineup is clicking on all cylinders. All the regulars, save Benito Santiago, have an OPS of .800 in September. That includes a lot of games at Pac Bell. The most dangerous hitter right now, and what will be the downfall of the Marlins, is the Giants main winter acquisition ? Edgardo Alfonzo. Alfonzo struggled most of the season, but for the last month has hit very well and with power. I don?t know much about back injuries, but he may be getting well after two years. Felipe Alou has been very smart about writing out his lineup card, and I expect to see Alfonzo batting fifth.

 

The only benefit to "protection" is the decrease in intentional walks, and that?s what we?re gong to see a lot of. That may not make sense on the surface ? how can anyone provide protection for Bonds ? but Bonds has redefined the IBB. Many of us have heard announcers say that Aurilia/Grissom shouldn?t take second or the Giants? opponent would walk Bonds. And many of us have said (while arguing with an "average" fan) that they could walk Bonds regardless of where Aurilia is. Giants? opponents figured that out last year and this. An open base against Bonds is an open base. The Giants haven?t had anyone be wildly successful in the fifth slot. I have heard the argument that because Bonds gets stranded a lot when he is walked, his walks are less valuable, and thus he is less valuable. That?s never made much sense to me in any MVP/greatest player discussion. We never discuss wins/RBIs because it isn?t a player?s fault if his teammates suck. If Alfonzo gets really hot, and he is, Bonds will get pitched to more. Yes, he will still get walked with runners in scoring position, but the "open base" will revert back to "just first base". Or at least "mostly just first base".

 

The Giants players haven?t faced the Marlins pitchers very much ? that?ll happen when you have starters with little service time in the rotation. The number of pitches Bonds sees will be a huge factor.

 

For seven of the eight positions, the Marlins and Giants hitters are just about equal, in terms of run value over replacement. Bonds tips the scales. McKeon says that won?t matter because Bonds won?t be swinging the bat. Defensively, the teams are very similar as well. The starting pitchers tip back the other direction ? 2-1-1 for the Marlins. The bullpens are going to come out even, as long as McKeon doesn?t do anything dumb like bring in Michael Tejera to face Barry Bonds, in a futile attempt to get him out. The acquisition of Ugueth Urbina really levels this playing field versus the depth of the Giants bullpen.

 

In the end, the Marlins just won?t hit enough at Pac Bell and will lose in four games.

 

And heres a sweet eval on when to and when not to pitch to Bonds....http://www.baseballprimer.com/articles/tangotigre_2002-10-18_0.shtml

 

A very fair and well thought out overview IMO...visit the site to read on the Braves/Cubs series as well.

 

c/o baseballprimer.com

Theres also this nice review! http://www.aarongleeman.com/2003_09_28_bas...490035252023446

 

 

Enjoy! We will come back tomorrow...especially if its Reuter.