On my favorite site (after this one :lol )

 

 

Playoff Preview - National League Championship Series

by Mike Emeigh

 

Season series:

 

Cubs, 4-2. The games were played around the All-Star break, before the Cubs acquired a large chunk of their current offense from Pittsburgh. The Marlins weren't much different then than they are now, adding only Jeff Conine to the mix since the break while moving Ugueth Urbina to the closer spot and Braden Looper back into a setup role.

 

To some extent, these teams are mirror images of each other. Both teams have four good-to-very-good starters, offenses that rely heavily on a few key players, and bullpens that have had their ups-and-downs.

 

Pitching:

 

Game 1

Starter G GS W-L ERA

J. Beckett ® 24 23 9-8 3.04

M. Prior ® 30 30 18-6 2.43

 

Game 2

Starter G GS W-L ERA

B. Penny ® 32 32 14-10 4.13

C. Zambrano ® 32 32 13-11 3.11

 

Game 3

Starter G GS W-L ERA

K. Wood ® 32 32 14-11 3.20

M. Redman (L) 29 29 14-9 3.59

 

Game 4

Starter G GS W-L ERA

M. Clement ® 32 32 14-12 4.11

D. Willis (L) 27 27 14-6 3.30

I think that Prior will start games 1 and 5 so that he could be available for a possible Game 7 in relief. However, Zambrano and Prior could flip-flop.

 

The starters match up pretty well, in my opinion. Prior/Beckett should rival Prior/Maddux for drama and tension, and Mark Redman should be able to handle the Wood matchup. Redman shut out the Cubs in the first game after the All-Star break, although as I noted above the Cubs didn't have Lofton and Ramirez then. Penny was also outstanding in his lone start against the Cubs, but was bested 1 0 by Wood. Willis had one good start and one poor outing (6 ER in 2 innings), and Beckett was hit pretty hard in his lone effort. For the Cubs, Zambrano pitched very well against the Marlins, as did Clement, and of course Wood. Prior didn't face the Fish. The possible concern here - and it should be a very real concern for Cub fans - is that Prior and Wood have thrown a *lot* of innings and pitches this year, and there's always the possibility that the load will catch up to them. I don't think that will happen, but it's always in the background.

 

The Cubs have an advantage in the bullpen. The Marlins' middle relief is unsettled behind Urbina, whereas the Cubs have been getting steady work from Farnsworth and Remlinger. Urbina has the edge in closing experience over Borowski, but Borowski has acquitted himself nicely so far in the postseason.

 

Florida's lineup:

 

Pierre, CF

Castillo, 2B

Rodriguez, C

Lee, 1B

Cabrera, 3B

Encarnacion, RF

Conine, LF

A. Gonzalez, SS

pitcher

When Pierre and Castillo are getting on base, this team can score runs in bunches. When they aren't, the Marlins find it difficult to manufacture runs. With All-Star 3B Mike Lowell still not 100% and unlikely to play more than a cameo role, there's no consistent power threat in the lineup. Cabrera responded nicely to sitting in favor of Lowell in Game 3 of the NLDS, with four hits in the finale. I like his future, but he's still got a tendency to hack too much in the present, and I think that Wood and Prior will exploit that tendency. The Fish therefore have to get more from Lee and Encarnacion (6-31, 1 double, 1 HR, 3 RBI in the NLDS). Pudge can't do everything, although he came pretty darned close to it in Game 4 of the NLDS.

 

 

 

Chicago's lineup:

 

Lofton, CF

Grudzielanek, 2B

Sosa, RF

Alou, LF

Ramirez, 3B

Karros/Simon, 1B

AS Gonzalez, SS

Miller/Bako, C

pitcher

The Cubs should send at least a half-postseason share to Dave Littlefield for donating Lofton, Ramirez, and Simon at the cost of very little (Bobby Hill). I seriously doubt that the Cubs would have made the postseason without them; they added just enough offense to supplement Sammy and Moises. It's still not a great offense. There aren't enough people in it who do a good job of getting on base, although Lofton posted a .381 OBP after coming over to the Cubs. Sammy didn't have a good series against the Braves, but Alou more than made up for it, and (as they have pretty much all year) the Cubs got timely hits from the lesser players like Karros and Gonzalez when they needed them in the NLDS. I don't think the Cubs should be counting on that happening again, which means that Sammy needs to kick it into gear. The Marlins managed to neutralize Bonds, and while the Cubs' offense isn't as dependent on Sosa as the Giants are on Barry, they don't have the firepower to afford a long-term slump from him.

 

Benches:

 

Ecch. Aside from Lowell, neither team has much offensive help on the bench.

 

Managers:

 

Both Jack McKeon and Dusty Baker get the most out of their teams. McKeon's probably a better tactical manager, but not enough so that it's likely to make much difference. Baker does some things that statheads don't like, but he doesn't usually manage his teams out of games.

 

Keys:

 

The Marlins have a team of contact hitters, who put the ball in play and who stretch the defense once it's in play. Florida's hitters fanned just 978 times this season, the third fewest in the league behind Atlanta and St. Louis. If the Marlins put the ball in play consistently against Wood, Prior, et. al., they will score runs. They did that very well against San Francisco.

 

The Cubs need to keep Pierre and Castillo off base. Miller and Bako did a pretty good job in keeping the running game under control this year, throwing out 40 of 109 basestealers during the year, and maintaining or bettering that level of success is essential if Chicago is to advance.

 

Outlook:

 

The Marlins have never lost a postseason series. Florida's AA team is my hometown team, as most of my regular readers know. I'll be rooting for the Marlins. But I think the Cubs have slightly more depth on offense. I also think the Cubs' pitching, especially the late-game relief, is better. And I think the Cubs are more likely to contain the Marlins' strengths and cover their own weaknesses than are the Fish.

 

It should be a great series, and while it pains me to say it, I think it will be

 

Cubs in 7.

 

 

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Reader Comments and Retorts

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October 7, 2003 - Cody

 

 

I like my Cubs' chances, however, the speed of the Marlins does make me a little nervous. Speedy recklessness on the basepaths may be dumb strategy over the long haul, but it can add a whole 'nother aspect to the Marlins offense and disrupt the cubs' pitching and defense enough to really make the difference in the short series. OTOH, they could run themselves into bushels of outs ala that Oakland club (albiet a much slower team) and make it easier on Prior, Wood, et al.

 

October 7, 2003 - Mike Emeigh (e-mail)

 

 

I wrote this article before the pitching matchups were announced. Naturally, Dusty decided to start Zambrano in game 1 and Prior in game 2, depriving us of the Prior/Beckett clash of the titans. Oh well.

 

Success rate of basestealers against the Cub catchers:

 

Miller: 42/69, 60.9% Bako: 27/40, 67.5% Josh Paul: 1/3, 33.3%

 

Dusty has been semi-platooning Miller and Bako for the past month or so. Bako has been getting most of the starts against RHP, with Miller starting against LHP and the occasional RHP (he started against Maddux in Game 3 of the NLDS). In the six regular season games, the Marlins were 3/6 in SB against the Cubs, with all three SB against the pen and all three CS against Wood.

 

None of the Cubs' starters in this series are particularly easy to run against. Runners were successful less than half the time against Prior, Wood, and Zambrano, and were 6/11 against Clement. When the Marlins get into the bullpen, they should find it easier to run; runners were 8/8 against Borowski, 2/2 against Remlinger, 8/12 against Farnsworth, and 15/16 against Alfonseca. I would expect the Marlins to see a lot of Guthrie in the late innings if the running game is in order - runners were 0/3 against him and he also had three pickoffs in just 42 2/3 innings.

 

I think that the Cubs will be able to neutralize Florida's basestealers.

 

-- MWE

 

October 7, 2003 - David Gee

 

 

As you said, Mike, keeping Pierre off base is key. In his six games against the Cubs, they walked him five times and he put up a .423 OBA. That simply cannot happen. You have to throw the guy strikes and force him to make contact to get on base.

 

I'm not sure if it's paper covers rock or the other way around regarding a strikeout pitching staff against a contact hitting team, but it certainly worked out well for the Cubs against the Braves, who strike out even less than the Fish.

 

Much of it may come down to tactics, and you're right about McKeon being a much better tactician than Baker. However, Baker's freedom to make bad decisions has been cut somewhat short by the roster he was given, with both Estes and Womack gone. Womack could reappear on the roster for the NLCS, but even then, Baker would be hard pressed to start him in place of Grudzielanek. Goodwin and Glanville are unlikely to take PAs away from Lofton. I think Baker made very few tactical errors in the NLDS, and nothing obvious. I try never to be complacent and think I can predict Baker's decision-making, but if this series is like the NLDS, tactics will not be much of an issue.

 

October 7, 2003 - kamatoa

 

 

Benches: Ecch. Aside from Lowell, neither team has much offensive help on the bench.

 

Either team may have a disadvantage in the World Series in an AL park. Not knowing the Cubs roster too well, I couldn't say who Dusty would put in the DH slot (unfortunately, Lenny Harris is on the other team, now). I suppose the Marlins would slot Lowell or Cabrera in that position, assuming that Lowell's injury would allow it. In any case, either Nick Johnson or David Ortiz would give the AL team the advantage.

 

October 7, 2003 - True Blue

 

 

One other note -- while Willis struggled badly in his second start against the Cubs (2IP, 6H, 6R, 6ER, 3BB, 1K), it should be noted that there were slightly extenuating circumstances. In that game, Willis pitched the first inning effectively, then there was an extensive rain delay. McKeon sent Willis out after the delay and he was a much different pitcher, getting shelled.

 

October 7, 2003 - PDaddy

 

 

True- You're right about Willis. But Zambrano came back into that game also after the rain delay and did fine. I think it had just as much to do with the fact that it was the 2nd time that week the Cubs had faced Willis.

 

I don't know why, but I have a feeling this series won't go that long-I'm thinking 4 or 5 games. I know the 2 teams are evenly matched, but I just have a weird feeling that 1 of the teams is going to get all the breaks. I'd love for that to be the Cubs, but I am really worried about the combo of Florida's speed and the infield defense. I know Gonzalez is good at SS, but I see Aramis making several big erros on plays where he tries to force throws. I really think tonight is going to set the tone for the series.

 

October 7, 2003 - True Blue

 

 

If the Cubs were to make the Series, my guess is that they will DH whomever doesn't start at 1B (Karros or Simon).

 

If they don't do that and Dusty wants to stick to a platoon, I'm guessing they will go with Glanville as a righty DH (with Karros at 1B) and O'Leary as a lefty DH (with Simon at 1B). (I would personally prefer avoiding the platoon or at least use Martinez as the righty, but that's another story.)

 

October 7, 2003 - The scoffer (e-mail)

 

 

This is, quite possibly, the most pathetic thing I've ever read.

 

Cubs in two.

 

October 7, 2003 -

 

 

MLB.com says Prior is for Game 1

 

October 7, 2003 - David Gee

 

 

I don't know what page you're looking at, but the Cubs page says Zambrano.

 

October 7, 2003 - LaSerena

 

 

Where are you getting the baserunners thrown out rate for the catchers? ESPN stats show much lower numbers. Just curious!

 

October 7, 2003 - Mike Emeigh (e-mail)

 

 

I got my OCS numbers from MLB.com.

 

-- MWE

 

October 7, 2003 - Expos Fan

 

 

Hitler, Stalin, Walter O'Malley, Jeffrey Loria

 

October 8, 2003 - Joey B.

 

 

I sincerely hope people here actually watched last night's game, because it was an instant classic, with balls flying out out of the park on both sides and both teams fighting like hell to stay in it.

 

Pudge is simply unbelievable. What's the record for most RBIs by one player in the postseason?

 

October 8, 2003 - WTM

 

 

"With All-Star 3B Mike Lowell still not 100% and unlikely to play more than a cameo role, there's no consistent power threat in the lineup."

 

I've been wondering for some time whether people are having trouble distinguishing Derrek Lee from Travis Lee. Derrek was 7th in OPS among all ML firstbasemen, despite being severely handicapped by his home park--his OPS was .790 at home and .979 on the road. His OPS was slightly higher than Lowell's, his slg. avg. just a little lower. Yet he gets very little respect.

 

 

 

 

I especially like the last comment about D Lee...something I did not notice.

Heres another comment from a Giants fan that said the Marlins dont deserve to be here...heres a Marlins fan response...

 

October 7, 2003 - thomcat

 

 

Colin.... The Giants did have a very good year, though it's hard to actually say the words, being a Dodger fan. But the Giants were frequently having to patch together two or 3 starters in a game to get the win. A motely group of platoon/starters, who were at best, inconsistent(see large sampling of inflated ERA's--graphs included). In general it somehow worked because the Big-Gee offense was firing on on all 6, fueled by those selfish BIG MONEY-GRUBBING hardwood maple bats. But it was the flaws in this very same patchwork/platoon that reavealed itself in the small, but statistically significant samplings of the corrupt games. Games that were not doubt run by an unfair system that deceptively has packaged itself as the Divisionall Playoffs, in order to make more money, no doubt. And although the flashy Giants D was generally good during the year, there were some problems here as well. And I think it was these soft underbelly, that the deceitful, undeserving opportunists, who disguised as mild-mannered Fish, unfairly exposed, while using banned enhancers such as "Heart" and "Fire" along with small but illegal doses of "Confidance" that their incompetent skipper, one Black Jack McKean daily dispensed to his insecure players, in order to compensate for the low-caliber, UN-ESPN worthy level of players. Attributes that for some reason, rarely "reared it's ugly head" in those Dynamic and Exciting "We Deserve to Be Here Again" San Francisco G-men, capitalist oppressors one and all.

 

Thomcat

 

Kinda funnny