The last time the Fish led the Eastern Division (or were at least tied for the lead) for the ENTIRE month of April was 2004.

 

They were 15-8 at the end of April, currently 14-8.

 

They had a 3 game lead over Atlanta, currently a 2 game lead on Philly.

 

There was only one other team in the Division with a winning record, Atlanta at 11-10 in '04, Philly at 11-9 now.

 

The Mutts were 9-14 in '04 and mired in 4th place, as opposed to their current 9-12, also mired in 4th place.

 

:lol :lol :lol

 

The rear was brought up by the usual suspect Washington (then Montreal) at 5-19, and again cellar-dwellers at 5-16.

 

The '04 team was 6-3 at home and 9-5 on the road, as opposed to their current 5-4 and 9-4.

 

This is where we want the similarities to come to an absolute and total screeching halt.

 

Why? Because the '04 team then proceeded to go 6-9 and remained in 1st through May 18th when they were 21-17. They then went 62-62 over the rest of the season to finish 83-79.

 

I suspect that we will diverge from the '04 scenario. The '04 team never got more than 8 games over .500 in April, the current Fish have already been 10 over.

 

This team is, on average, 2 years younger. The pitching has been good and will probably get better and is probably generally on a par with '04. They've been scoring 1/2 run more per game than in '04. The defense is about the same as in '04 so far, and that was pretty darned good. They're on schedule to hit 20 more HR and draw 130 more BB than in '04. They now have insane speed on this club, and a better bench than in '04.

 

The core of current players have now been together for a few years and may be ready to break out and win 90+ games. Now that they have cooled off with the 7 game losing streak, a reversion-to-the-mean reaction to the insanely good 11-1 start, they're right off again on a 3-win streak.

 

Their current pace would result in 103 wins. This time around, it actually might happen.

 

If they keep it up, Wilpon and the Mutts will be wondering how in the devil a $36 million collection of young upstarts and micellaneous rejects can kick the tail of a $150 million collection of badly managed prima donnas.

 

:lol :lol :lol

Wow.

 

Many hours have elapsed and not one of the many (extremely and incredibly good) pickers of nits here has yet surfaced.

 

Surely someone can tear my premise to shreds.

As a recreational picker of nit, I can say that the claims you're making aren't too far fetched and the comparisons you're making are admittedly inexact... but if you're really looking for one.. I'd say that predicting 100 wins is always going to be on the crazy side... but 90 is a-ok :thumbup

Wow.

 

Many hours have elapsed and not one of the many (extremely and incredibly good) pickers of nits here has yet surfaced.

 

Surely someone can tear my premise to shreds.

I very quickly glanced through your post before deciding whether to read it and when I saw "Mutts" in it I decided to pass as the cheap shot made me think the post was likely a bunch on nonsence. Maybe it's not but the Mutts reference made me think it was.

I'd say that predicting 100 wins is always going to be on the crazy side... but 90 is a-ok :thumbup

 

 

Well, that's not much of a nit, but I'll take it as picked.

 

I'm thinking that they have the potential to win the 90 or so games that it will probably take to win the East or at least the wild card. 103 was just the projection at the current win rate, admittedly a volatile and even unlikely number.

I'd say that predicting 100 wins is always going to be on the crazy side... but 90 is a-ok :thumbup

 

 

Well, that's not much of a nit, but I'll take it as picked.

 

I'm thinking that they have the potential to win the 90 or so games that it will probably take to win the East or at least the wild card. 103 was just the projection at the current win rate, admittedly a volatile and even unlikely number.

 

Nny did a prediction you may or may not have ready that pegged us at somewhere between 94-97 wins, barring any critical injuries. Not wholly unreasonable...

I saw "Mutts" in it I decided to pass as the cheap shot made me think the post was likely a bunch on nonsence

 

 

Aw, c'mon. It's not like no one here has ever made fun of the sputtering 150 million dollar Mutts.

 

In any case, I did it in passing just because it was a good opportunity to defame the Mutts as an aside to the main point, which was the close similarities during April to the '04 team, the record of which I now hope we will substantially deviate from.

 

But, I take your semi-picked nit in good cheer.

 

Go Mutts! You can finish 2nd if you really try!

 

:lol :lol :lol

Nny did a prediction you may or may not have read that pegged us at somewhere between 94-97 wins, barring any critical injuries. Not wholly unreasonable...

 

I completely agree. 90 to 100 wins may not be likely, but something in that range is certainly possible, given the good start.

 

There seems to some sort of dynamic on this team that turns them into more than they would normally be expected to be.

I saw "Mutts" in it I decided to pass as the cheap shot made me think the post was likely a bunch on nonsence

 

 

Aw, c'mon. It's not like no one here has ever made fun of the sputtering 150 million dollar Mutts.

I just hate how everything in So Fla has to revolve around NY. For example the previous 790 morning guy talked about his beloved NY teams all the time. Well the new morning 790 guy hates on the NY teams all the time. The new guy is just as annoying if not more!

 

Regarding a prediction, My guess is we'll be about a .500 team the rest of the way and we're 6 games over .500 right now so I think we'll end up with about 84 wins.

 

So far we're 12th in OPS but are 5th in runs scored. My guess is by the end of the seaosn we'll be between 6th and 8th in both so from here on out we'll score fewer runs per game than what we've scored so far. Production from the OF will improve but the RISP will decline.

 

So far the rotation has a 4.36 ERA which is 9th in the NL. We have two starters pitching better than expected, one pitching as expected, one pitching worse than expected and Miller pitching like Miller when not "injured". My guess is the starters will improve a bit but not much and this is if they stay healthy.

 

So run scoring will go down and run prevention will go down but not as much as the run scoring that's why I think we'll be about a .500 team the rest of the way.