I don't mean to start yet another topic on the trade (although it would be only the third started to diss the trade compared to 5,000 calling Penny a fatass), but we do normally post these things.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=3308

Feel Like I'm Winning When I'm Losing Again: If you're reading this PTP--or anything else at Baseball Prospectus--you're likely aware that the Los Angeles Dodgers and Florida Marlins consummated a deal last Friday, where the former sent Heart & Soulâ„¢ Paul Lo Duca, Guillermo Mota, and Juan Encarnacion to the latter for Hee Seop Choi, Brad Penny, and minor-league lefty Bill Murphy. You're also probably aware of the conflicting perceptions of who won the deal, with a majority of the mainstream media thumbing their noses at the Dodgers, while statheads genuflect at the growing altar of Paul DePodesta.

But was the trade that clear cut?

 

To a certain degree it was. After all, Choi is already in the top half of the league at his position, and is young enough to make some improvements. Penny is a great middle-of-the-rotation starter (or decent top-of-the-rotation starter), whose addition allows Wilson Alvarez (or Darren Dreifort) to slip into the role formerly inhabited by Mota. And Murphy is a former A's farmhand, part of the infamous "Moneyball draft," who's struck out more than a batter per inning at Double-A Carolina.

 

And the Marlins got...a 32-year-old catcher who has a history of collapsing in the second half, a 31-year-old reliever who's appeared in 170 innings over the past 16 months, more than any setup man in the game, and a worthless outfielder who the Fish themselves dealt last December for a PTBNL, and is now owed more than $5 million million through 2005.

 

In straight-ahead 2004 terms, the breakdown looks a little something like this...

 

 

2004

Player Age VORP Contract Status

Brad Penny 26 33.3 FA in '05

Hee Seop Choi 25 27.9 Arb in '06

Bill Murphy 23 -- n/a

 

Paul Lo Duca 32 22.6 FA in '05

Guillermo Mota 31 24.4 Arb in '05

Juan Encarnacion 28 0.4 Owed $2 MM in '05

 

 

That being said, the Dodgers' advantage in this deal is somewhat lessened when you focus on its impact over the next eight weeks, and also consider the acquisitions in light of which players they're displacing in the real world. Paul Lo Duca and His Amazing Technicolor Clubhouse Presence, for instance, replaces this mess behind the plate...

 

 

2004 PA VORP

Mike Redmond 232 0.6

Ramon Castro 108 -7.2

Matt Treanor 57 -0.2

Josh Willingham 29 -0.5

TOTAL 426 -7.3

 

 

As you can see, Marlins' catchers have been awful this season, to the tune of a win below replacement level. So even if Lo Duca does suffer through one of his patented stretch-drive declines, chances are he'll be a win or two better than his predecessors. Like it or not, there wasn't a team in baseball that needed to upgrade at catcher more than the Marlins at the deadline, and they addressed the problem by acquiring a player who's currently the fourth-best backstop in the league.

 

As for Mota, he immediately steps in for the injured Armando Benitez as closer--the only significant positive in the Marlin bullpen this season--taking appearances that would have gone to Josias Manzanillo or Billy Koch instead. The Fish ranked 10th in the National League in Adjusted Runs Prevented leading into the trading deadline; by adding the sixth-best reliever in the league to their pen, the Marlins just didn't give themself another option, they avoided handing one- and two-run leads to a group that would rank 24th in the league in ARP without Benitez's help.

 

Of course, all of this is ignoring the hole created by the loss of Choi, which will be indirectly filled by Encarnacion--a difference that more than negates the gains Lo Duca makes behind the plate. Factor in the loss of Penny from the rotation, and thus the increased reliance on a healing A.J. Burnett and a blistered Josh Beckett, and you begin to see limits of sugar-coating this deal from a Florida perspective. It's a loss, even in the short term, and there's really no other way to spin it, unless you believe Lo Duca's experience catching a bunch of 83-win Dodger squads will help the defending champions wade through the dog days of summer.

Pretty much sums up my thoughts.

is that supposed to bring a tear to my eye?

that's pretty much the consensus opinion of every number-savvy baseball expert.

 

what surprises me is how none of the guys on espn can grasp:

Of course, all of this is ignoring the hole created by the loss of Choi, which will be indirectly filled by Encarnacion--a difference that more than negates the gains Lo Duca makes behind the plate.

 

Factor in the loss of Penny from the rotation, and thus the increased reliance on a healing A.J. Burnett and a blistered Josh Beckett, and you begin to see limits of sugar-coating this deal from a Florida perspective. It's a loss, even in the short term, and there's really no other way to spin it, unless you believe Lo Duca's experience catching a bunch of 83-win Dodger squads will help the defending champions wade through the dog days of summer.

The so-called ESPN experts are John Kruk, Jeff Brantley, and Harold Reynolds. Man those guys are smart. They should get the next GM job that opens up.

I haven't found one person in the media that thinks either Choi or Penny are good players, but most think Enc is.

clue, BBTN crew has been more wrong than right for as far as I can remember.

Please....we addressed every need we could. Another OF who is great at D, stronger pen, and catcher. LoDuca, Juan E, and Mota will do great. We are easily improved. Beinfest definately knows what he's doing as proved before. Its up to the rest of our team to start playing better baseball and beating these s***ty teams.

The guy who wrote that is a moron

Please....we addressed every need we could. Another OF who is great at D, stronger pen, and catcher. LoDuca, Juan E, and Mota will do great. We are easily improved. Beinfest definately knows what he's doing as proved before. Its up to the rest of our team to start playing better baseball and beating these s***ty teams.

495048[/snapback]

 

Let the final record/result to the talking and we shall see who is right