Dems fear Fla. may be out of reach

Excerpted from The Hill; September 2, 2004

 

Democratic strategists are worried that Mel Martinez's Senate primary victory this week will have a galvanizing effect on Cuban-American turnout in November, possibly putting Florida's 27 electoral votes out of reach for Sen. John Kerry.

 

That view was shared by the White House and Florida's convention delegation here in New York, where key GOP operatives and elected officials were privately relieved that Martinez bested his main Republican challenger, former Rep. Bill McCollum (R-Fla.).

 

Martinez will face former Education Commissioner Betty Castor in November. He will address the convention tonight, an offer that had been conditional upon his primary victory...

 

..."It's a big victory for [bush adviser] Karl Rove and the White House, and it does exactly what Republicans need, which is to bring Cuban-Americans into this election," said Joe Garcia, a prominent Democratic strategist. Garcia today joined the New Democrat Network, an organization that has underwritten a more expansive and expensive Hispanic outreach program than both the Democratic National Committee and the Kerry campaign, to head the network's operation in south Florida.

 

Underscoring the significance of the Cuban demographic in south Florida, Garcia said, "Remember, if just half of 1 percent of Cuban's did not vote in the last election, we'd be talking about Al Gore's reelection campaign right now."

 

Garcia offered a stern warning for his fellow Democratic strategists in the Kerry campaign. "They better understand it. There's no question about the significance of this."

 

He added: "If anyone doubted the genius of Karl Rove, this proved it."...

 

...With Martinez's primary victory, top Republican strategists were confident that the high Cuban turnout would deliver Florida for Bush. In addition to his Cuban heritage, Martinez is also a political refugee with a compelling personal story ? one that should resonate with Florida's wider, and not exclusively Cuban, Hispanic community.

 

Although Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie disputed the notion that Bush would be bolstered by Martinez's reverse coattails, he allowed that the statewide Senate and presidential campaigns would have a "symbiotic relationship" and would "work together to deliver Florida for Republicans."

 

Gillespie insisted that "the president is at the top of the ballot." However, he conceded that Martinez "will make it a little more easy to reach out to the Hispanic community."

 

Matt Schlapp, director of political affairs at the White House, emphasized that Martinez performed unbelievably well in vote-rich Miami-Dade County ? the site of much of the election-night controversy in 2000.

 

In Miami-Dade, Schlapp noted that Martinez beat McCollum 79 to 8 percent, with a higher-than-expected turnout, while he won statewide, 45-31.

 

Toni Jennings, Florida's lieutenant governor and delegation leader, said the party was glad finally to have a nominee and was enthusiastic about Martinez's cross-cultural appeal. "There's no doubt that the Cuban-American and the Hispanic-American community will identify with his story. He's a dynamic campaigner."...

Interesting article, i dont know if the cuban vote will be enough to carry florida but defintely a good thing for bush. Before anyone mentions the travels to cuba to negate the cuban support for bush, remember that most cubans against bush's new travel to cuba law are newer cubans most of whom are not citizens, but the stronger and larger cuban voting block is still pro-republican. (Lets see how long before someone tries to devalue the source of this article)

Um, it quotes a dem operative which gives the argument credibility. If it blindly quoted Republicans why would we care? Would you give credence to a DNC article?

 

btw this isnt the first time Ive seen this. In fact I mentioned in an earlier post that the Martinez's success would help Bush. But I also think the trouble with medicare will hurt Bush with the eldrely in teh state.

Um, it quotes a dem operative which gives the argument credibility. If it blindly quoted Republicans why would we care? Would you give credence to a DNC article?

 

btw this isnt the first time Ive seen this. In fact I mentioned in an earlier post that the Martinez's success would help Bush. But I also think the trouble with medicare will hurt Bush with the eldrely in teh state.

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The problem is many of the elderly from fla barely receive any medicare benfits anyway. What helps kerry in fla is west palm and broward, the jewish vote and the young minority people. The truth is north of palm beach its almost entirely bush country b/c its 'the south'. Then miami-dade will most likely be dominated by the cuban and nicaraguan communities and people who own businesses, which are strong republican voters for the most part. Kerry will not win fla b/c of the elderly's 'trouble with medicare'

In Miami-Dade, Schlapp noted that Martinez beat McCollum 79 to 8 percent, with a higher-than-expected turnout, while he won statewide, 45-31.

 

HOLY CRAP

In Miami-Dade, Schlapp noted that Martinez beat McCollum 79 to 8 percent, with a higher-than-expected turnout, while he won statewide, 45-31.

 

HOLY CRAP

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It was actually higher before

 

At one point in the night Martinez had 86%

Kerry will easily take Gainesville and Tallahasee.

The rest of the state, on the other hand, has swung pretty conservative past couple of years.

Central Florida is pretty split. Bush won Seminole but Gore won Orange. Gore also won other central Florida ones like Alachua and Volusia but Bush won my county, Brevard. Like I said, from what Ive been able to tell, its pretty split up here. Gore won Dade and Palm Beach. He also won Pinellas, ie Tampa.

 

I think the whole state is relativley split into bits and parts. Here is a county by county analysis.

 

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2000/results/F...et.exclude.html

When did the Flordia state legislature make the switch though? I think it was in 2002.