THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/09. KARL IS MOVING SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL

RIDGE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS

WITH THE APPROACH OF A LARGE AND POWERFUL MID-LATITUDE COLD LOW.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING A TRACK AROUND

THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FOLLOWED BY ACCELERATION IN FORWARD

SPEED ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE COLD LOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS

SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A

CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.

 

THE EYE IS WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING AND IS

EMBEDDED IN A PERSISTENT COLD CDO FEATURE. DVORAK INTENSITY

ESTIMATES ARE 115/102/102 KT FROM TAFB/SAB/KGWC AND THE INITIAL

WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 110 KT. THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES 15 KT

OF ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING AND THE GFDL MODEL SHOWS 10 KT UNDER

LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE OFFICIAL

FORECAST IS FOR 10 MORE KT...BUT THE WIND SPEED COULD CERTAINLY GO

HIGHER.

 

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

Cat 4 now..still oving WNW though

000

WTNT32 KNHC 192036

TCPAT2

BULLETIN

HURRICANE KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 13

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

5 PM AST SUN SEP 19 2004

 

...KARL BECOMES THE 4TH CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...

 

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR

LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1155

MILES...1855 KM... EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

 

KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...

AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215

KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS

FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

 

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...

FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP

TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

 

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE

DATA IS 944 MB...27.88 INCHES.

 

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...17.0 N... 44.0 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 944 MB.

 

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST.

 

FORECASTER BLAKE/LAWRENCE

 

 

$$

KARL HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGES

SHOW A CLASSICAL CAPE VERDE HURRICANE WITH PROMINENT BANDING

FEATURES...EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND A WELL-DEFINED EYE. THREE-HOUR

AVERAGE ODT'S ARE NEAR T6.3...120 KT...AGREEING WELL WITH TAFB'S

SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION OF T6.0. IN ADDITION... A 1707 UTC

CIMSS/NESDIS AMSU PRESSURE ALGORITHM ESTIMATED A CENTRAL PRESSURE

OF 941 MB. THE ESTIMATED WINDS ARE RAISED TO 115 KT AND THE

PRESSURE IS SET TO 944 MB IN BETWEEN THE AMSU AND DVORAK ESTIMATES.

 

THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED.. 290/9. WATER VAPOR

IMAGES SHOW A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KARL WHICH IS

EXPECTED TO REMAIN FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD... A

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG 57W IS FORECAST TO

ERODE THE RIDGE AND PULL THE HURRICANE NORTHWARD ON A RATHER SHARP

RECURVATURE EAST OF 50W. MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL

CONSENSUS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AT LONGER RANGES WHETHER KARL

WILL BE ABSORBED BY A MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL

ATLANTIC OR REMAINS A SEPARATE ENTITY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST

REFLECTS THE LATTER POSSIBILITY WITH A MORE WESTWARD TRACK POSSIBLE

AT LONG RANGES IF THE ABSORPTION SCENARIO OCCURS.

 

KARL IS ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE WITH LITTLE

SHEAR. THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE HURRICANE HAS ABOUT 48

HOURS TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES. THE

INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH HAS PERFORMED WELL

FOR THE CYCLONE. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT KARL WILL BE MOVING

OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATER NEAR ITS RECURVATURE POINT AND THE WIND

SPEED FORECAST COULD BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE.

 

FORECASTER BLAKE/LAWRENCE

000

WTNT32 KNHC 201451

TCPAT2

BULLETIN

HURRICANE KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 16

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11 AM AST MON SEP 20 2004

 

...POWERFUL KARL NO THREAT TO LAND....

 

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR

LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1010

MILES...1620 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

 

KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR.

A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO NEAR 120 MPH...195

KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KARL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON

THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...BUT COULD RESTRENGTHEN TO A CATEGORY

FOUR HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

 

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...

FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP

TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

 

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.

 

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...17.9 N... 46.3 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 955 MB.

 

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST.

 

FORECASTER BLAKE/LAWRENCE

 

 

$$

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT KARL IS NOT AS CIRCULAR AS YESTERDAY

WITH THE CLOUD SHIELD SHOWING ASYMMETRIES IN THE EASTERN AND

NORTHERN SEMICIRCLES. THIS PATTERN SUGGESTS SOME SHEAR IS

PRESENT...CONFIRMED BY THE GFS AND CIMSS ANALYSES SHOWING ABOUT

10-15 KT OF SHEAR FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE CLOUD PATTERN NEAR THE

INNER CORE REMAINS RAGGED AND T-NUMBERS ARE FALLING. HOWEVER A

RECENT SSMI OVERPASS SHOWED NO EVIDENCE OF THE INNER EYEWALL SEEN

ON EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGES. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE PREVIOUS

EYEWALL CYCLE IS COMPLETE. ON THE OTHER HAND THE EYE WAS ALSO OPEN

ON THE SOUTH SIDE. GIVEN THE ABOVE FACTORS...THE INTENSITY IS

DECREASED A BIT TO 105 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

 

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 54W IS APPROACHING THE CYCLONE.

THE GFS INDICATES THAT SHEAR WILL REMAIN NEAR CURRENT LEVELS UNTIL

AFTER 24 HOURS WHEN THE TROUGH RETROGRADES AWAY FROM KARL. THIS

SCENARIO SHOULD PROVIDE A PERIOD OF VERY LOW SHEAR OVER WARM WATER

NEAR THE CYCLONE'S RECURVATURE POINT... ALL INGREDIENTS FOR

INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN 24-48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A

COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST. WIND

RADII HAVE BEEN INCREASED BASED ON A 0900 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS AND THIS

LARGE SIZE IS HELD CONSTANT THOUGH THE PERIOD.

 

KARL IS STILL MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST 6-12 HOURS BUT

RECENT SATELLITE PICTURES SUGGEST THAT A MORE NORTHWESTERLY MOTION

MAY HAVE BEGUN. THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK

FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. A DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE

WESTERN ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD AND BECOME ANCHORED

ALONG 55W. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS

ADVISORY AND IS IN BETWEEN CONU AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE

FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A BIT OF A BEND TO THE LEFT BEYOND 3 DAYS TO

REFLECT A DEEP MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE CAPTURING KARL RATHER THAN THE

TROPICAL CYCLONE STAYING A SEPARATE ENTITY.

 

FORECASTER BLAKE/LAWRENCE

000

WTNT32 KNHC 241434

TCPAT2

BULLETIN

HURRICANE KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 32

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11 AM AST FRI SEP 24 2004

 

...KARL RACING NORTHWARD...

 

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR

LATITUDE 44.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 40.2 WEST OR ABOUT 815

MILES...1310 KM... NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

 

KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 40 MPH ...65 KM/HR. A TURN TO

THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER

THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS

KARL CONTINUES TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

 

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...

FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP

TO 405 MILES...650 KM.

 

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

 

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...44.4 N... 40.2 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 40 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 970 MB.

 

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST.

 

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

 

 

$$

I think this can be closed..Karls gone