Posting the 5-day advisory and models here..so they will auto-refresh and no need to repost them over and over.

wow

 

this is absurd

how many of these craps are we gonna have this year.....jeez

Ridiculous. This is almost a joke.

So far, this is not an overly active year, it falls under 'average' as far as the number of storms thus far (10.) You just notice them more this year since Florida has had to keep an eye on a number of them in a row. By the time the season is over (at the end of November,) there will probably be 12 - 15 named storms (just slightly above normal.)

 

The NHC updated outlook (NHC Updated Outlook) says there is a 45% chance of a 'near normal' season, and 45% chance of an 'above normal' season.

sounds like Lisa is almost as close as forming as Karl :thumbup Those last few waves off Africa's coast weren't too "great"

Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on September 16, 2004

 

 

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane

Ivan...located about 65 miles west-southwest of Montgomery

Alabama...and on Hurricane Jeanne...located 80 miles east-northeast

of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic.

Satellite images and ship reports indicate that a tropical

depression is forming about about 525 miles southwest of the Cape

Verde Islands. Advisories will likely be initiated this afternoon

on this system.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through Friday.

Forecaster Franklin

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

5 PM AST THU SEP 16 2004

 

...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

 

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE DISTURBANCE IN

THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

 

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 32.8 WEST OR ABOUT

670 MILES...1080 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

 

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH

...26 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A

DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN

THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

 

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

 

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...11.4 N... 32.8 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

 

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST.

Hope and pray he stays a fish..

fish?

fish?

561251[/snapback]

Gonna go out to sea prob

000

WTNT42 KNHC 162042

TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

5 PM EDT THU SEP 16 2004

 

DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS...T2.0 FROM SAB AND T2.5 FROM TAFB...ALONG

WITH SHIP REPORTS SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION...SUPPORT

INITIATING ADVISORIES ON THE DISTURBANCE IN THE FAR EASTERN

TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THE DEPRESSION HAS GOOD BANDING TO THE NORTH OF

THE CENTER AND A STRONGLY DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. STRENGTHENING IS

FORECAST IN ACCORD WITH BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.

 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/14. STEERING FOR THE DEPRESSION IS

CURRENTLY BEING PROVIDED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.

HOWEVER...THE GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS ALL SHOW A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED

TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS THAT

SHOULD DEFLECT THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD. THE BAMS...GFS... AND GFDL

ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS

CONSENSUS.

 

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

So Karl should not affect the US

So Karl should not affect the US

561984[/snapback]

Correct. Karl shouldn't affect any land.

Karl is a problem for shipping lanes, cruise lines, and other mariners at the moment, but keep an eye on it if it concerns you so.

Don't let your guard down, seems a trough or something may be building in, and they planned the same for Frances but Frances refused..as wacky as this hurricane tracking season has gone: never rule it out til it's gone.

Karl is a problem for shipping lanes, cruise lines, and other mariners at the moment, but keep an eye on it if it concerns you so.

562147[/snapback]

:thumbup

 

 

 

Karl is going to be a bother for that if anything. And maybe the Azores.

Karl is a problem for shipping lanes, cruise lines, and other mariners at the moment, but keep an eye on it if it concerns you so.

562147[/snapback]

:thumbup

 

 

 

Karl is going to be a bother for that if anything. And maybe the Azores.

562241[/snapback]

Any historical evidence of a hurricane turning back to the US after such a sharp turn northward?

Karl is a problem for shipping lanes, cruise lines, and other mariners at the moment, but keep an eye on it if it concerns you so.

562147[/snapback]

:thumbup

 

 

 

Karl is going to be a bother for that if anything. And maybe the Azores.

562241[/snapback]

Any historical evidence of a hurricane turning back to the US after such a sharp turn northward?

562257[/snapback]

From that far out at this time of the year? No.

i so knew we were going to have a lot of hurricanes this summer

 

you could tell from the crazy winter we had: hot ass balls one day, cold as a witch's titty the next, pouring rain one week, dry the next

 

plus not much rain in may or april

000

WTNT32 KNHC 182013

TCPAT2

BULLETIN

HURRICANE KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 9

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

5 PM AST SAT SEP 18 2004

 

...NO THREAT TO LAND...

 

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR

LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.2 WEST OR ABOUT 1075

MILES...1730 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

 

KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...

AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

 

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...

FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP

TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

 

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.

 

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...15.9 N... 40.2 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 965 MB.

 

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST.

 

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

 

 

$$

THE FORECAST REASONING IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE

RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KARL IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BE ERODED BY AN

APPROACHING AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES. THIS

WILL ALLOW KARL TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ERODED

RIDGE AND THEN MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 4 OR 5. ONLY THE

GFS IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS. THE

OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.

 

DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 102/90/90 KT FROM TAFB/SAB/KGWC. THE

INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 95 KT. KARL CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD ON

SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A SMALL WELL-DEFINED EYE...BANDING FEATURES

AND OUTFLOW. THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER IS STABLE...BUT

THE OUTER BANDING DEEP CONVECTION COMES AND GOES. THE OFFICIAL

FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL AND INCREASES THE WIND SPEED TO

115 KT IN 36 HOURS FOLLOWED BY INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND

WEAKENING AFTER 72 HOURS.

 

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

000

WTNT32 KNHC 190235

TCPAT2

BULLETIN

HURRICANE KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 10

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11 PM AST SAT SEP 18 2004

 

...KARL BECOMES THE FIFTH MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2004 SEASON...

 

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR

LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 41.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1150

MILES...1850 KM... WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

 

KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH ...19 KM/HR...

AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. INFRA-RED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT KARL

IS JUST COMPLETING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND A DECREASE IN

WIND SPEED IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS IS FORECAST FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE

BACK TO MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH.

 

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...

FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP

TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

 

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.

 

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...16.2 N... 41.3 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 960 MB.

 

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST.

 

FORECASTER JARVINEN

 

 

$$

KARL HAS WOBBLED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK

DIRECTION AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING AT 290/10. THE FORECAST REASONING

IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF

KARL IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BE ERODED BY AN APPROACHING

AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES. THIS WILL ALLOW

KARL TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ERODED RIDGE AND

THEN MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 4 OR 5. THE OFFICIAL TRACK

FORECAST FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.

 

DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 102/102/90 KT FROM TAFB/SAB/KGWC.

THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 100 KT. THIS MAKES KARL THE FIFTH

MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2004 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. INFRARED

SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN THAT THE EYE DIAMETER HAS GOTTEN

SMALLER DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS...SUGGESTING THAT THE STORM IS

STRENGTHENING...WHICH THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ABOVE CONFIRM. A

2357Z MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE ALSO GAVE SUPPORTING EVIDENCE FOR

THIS...SHOWING A DOUBLE EYEWALL WITH THE INNER EYE JUST ABOUT TO

COLLAPSE AND DISAPPEAR. THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE SCENARIO

REQUIRES THE WIND SPEED TO DECREASE AS THE OUTER EYE BECOMES

DOMINANT AND REPLACES THE DISAPPEARING INNER ONE. THIS IS

REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST AT THE 12 HOUR TIME FRAME.

SURPRISINGLY THE GFDL INTENSITY GUIDANCE DOES HAVE THIS

SCENARIO...WHICH THE SHIPS DOES NOT. BOTH THE GFDL AND SHIPS HAVE

KARL BACK TO MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY AT THE 12 TO 24 HOUR TIME

FRAME. ADDITIONAL EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES ARE POSSIBLE.

 

FORECASTER JARVINEN

000

WTNT32 KNHC 191415

TCPAT2

BULLETIN

HURRICANE KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 12

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11 AM AST SUN SEP 19 2004

 

...KARL STRENGTHENS...NO THREAT TO LAND...

 

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR

LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.9 WEST OR ABOUT 1225

MILES...1970 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

 

KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17

KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24

HOURS.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125

MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING

IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

 

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...

FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP

TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

 

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.

 

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...16.4 N... 42.9 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 955 MB.

 

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST.

 

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

 

 

$$