I dont think we will see a massive swing in the polls but I think the effect was to get Kerry off the ropes and make this a defenite tight race again. The democrats who were ready to jump ship are probably back on board and confident again as they were around the DNC convention. Charlie Cook puts it well:

 

Perhaps the most important outcome of this first debate is a shift in the conventional wisdom. The conventional wisdom, even among Democrats, that Bush was running away with the race was so great that if it had continued, it is very likely that despondency would have set into the Democratic ranks.?? And, if that had occurred, it would have probably caused a decline in Democratic turnout.?? That in turn would have widened the presidential vote gap and started to hurt Democratic candidates down the ballot. Kerry's debate "win" ends that...

 

http://www.cookpolitical.com/races/presidential/updates.php

Good points. Unfortunately the debate win didnt swing the poll numbers (yet!) but the the dynamic is changed.

So youll be giving an extra vote for Kerry right Sham? :whistle

undecided. :\

Without pressuring you, can I ask what drags you away from Kerry? Ill admit, for me the threat of another 4 years of Bush is just too much.

Here is my very unsubstantiated reason for the left to vote for Kerry. BTW, this has come from a very leftist friend of mine:

 

If Kerry wins, there will be a divide in the Republican party. The neocons will take it up the ass from traditional conservatives for Iraq since it was their idea. In addition, the current alliance between moderate Republicans and the far right is weak and a loss could cause a schizm wheras a Bush win would allow the tenuous alliance to continue. People here talk about Rudy or Arnold in 08. I dont think the religious right will allow that to happen. They will get their anti abortion anti gay candidate no matter what.

 

Now if that break happens, that kills the moderate democrats argument that the left needs to be united lest they give the house away. That allows the Nader left to assert more power of the DNC and stuff. Deans run was the best example. If it wasnt about beating Bush, Dean would have won the primaries. That shows the Democratic left really can take on teh DNC. Nader thinks thats impossible. I dont.

 

Again, I have no evidence for this. Just a theory. I wont argue that you are foolish for anyone you vote for. Its your vote. :thumbup

Ill give an answer after the Gator game.

Without pressuring you, can I ask what drags you away from Kerry? Ill admit, for me the threat of another 4 years of Bush is just too much.

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The game is safely in hand now. The Chris Leak era begins!!!

 

 

I have nothing against JFK because I knnow hes farther left than hes posturing so far. He needs the moderate vote. In order to keep the Democratic Party progressive you need people like Nader recieving a ton of support, however if it all comes down to Florida again I'll probably vote Kerry. I campaign for both in Alachua County.

however if it all comes down to Florida again I'll probably vote Kerry.

 

:thumbup

 

You mean if Florida is close right? Because we probably wont know if it comes down to Florida till it is too late.

 

I think a lot more Nader supporters will do that on election day than wht the polls suggest.

however if it all comes down to Florida again I'll probably vote Kerry.

 

:thumbup

 

You mean if Florida is close right? Because we probably wont know if it comes down to Florida till it is too late.

 

I think a lot more Nader supporters will do that on election day than wht the polls suggest.

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Yep.

I have nothing against JFK because I knnow hes farther left than hes posturing so far.?

 

 

This is his Achilles heal.

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Not really. Hes already moved enough to center to get most of the moderate Dems. The only people left are the true independents.

saw a poll that said more people think Bush is more conservative than Kerry is liberal.

saw a poll that said more people think Bush is more conservative than Kerry is liberal.

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Well Bush wants prayer in school, wants to ban gay marriage and ban abortion.