Richard L. from Toronto asks:

Jason Stokes seems to have fallen off the charts a bit after being such a highly touted prospect in the Marlins' organization. I recall not too long ago fantasy book prognosticators projected him with 50 + homer potential. It looks to me like his all-or-nothing swing is hurting his average and that he could whiff an awful lot at the big league level. What do you make of him?

 

 

Stokes was a hot prospect after he hit .341 with 27 homers in just 97 games for Class A Kane County in 2002, showing good plate discipline in addition to his enormous raw power. But the last two seasons have not gone as well. He hit just .258 with 17 homers for Class A Jupiter in 2003. He improved a bit in 2004, hitting .272 with 23 homers in 106 games for Double-A Carolina. But the drops in his batting average and OBP are quite strong from what he did in '02. Basically, I agree with your assessment of his problems.

 

 

It seems that Stokes has become overly power-conscious and tries too hard to pull the ball. Scouts felt he had a good chance to become a complete hitter following his '02 season, able to contribute a high batting average and OBP in addition to his home run power. But his overall hitting skills have regressed. The power is still there, but he's a lot more "pitchable," in the sense that he's opened up too many holes in his swing, leading to excessive strikeouts. He's still dangerous, but containable with good pitching. Stokes has also been bothered by nagging wrist injuries, forcing him to rely more on a brute strength approach rather than bat quickness.

 

 

At age 23, he still has development time ahead of him and can improve. But he reminds me more and more of Ron Wright, a big power prospect for the Braves and Pirates back in the mid-to-late 1990s. Wright, like Stokes, looked like a potential complete hitter at one point, but injuries and problems with contact sapped his "overall" hitting skills, and he ended up as a Triple-A slugger. Scouts say that Stokes has more pure talent than Wright had, and I agree. But Jason needs to tighten up the strike zone again to reach his full potential.

Hopefully he makes great progress this year and leaps into the majors sometime soon.

Good motivation for him to prove them wrong.

I hope he can regain his composure. The marlins really need another good player to come out of their farm so they can have a good player for the league minimum. I think that right now the marlins farm is not all that bad. It's not as stacked as past years, but it's in pretty good shape. I can't wait for an outfield of Miggy, Reed, and Hermida.

I hope he can regain his composure. The marlins really need another good player to come out of their farm so they can have a good player for the league minimum. I think that right now the marlins farm is not all that bad. It's not as stacked as past years, but it's in pretty good shape. I can't wait for an outfield of Miggy, Reed, and Hermida.

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I'd rather keep JP as long as possible. He's only 27, so he's got at least five more good years left in him.

 

In any case, we will really start to build up our farm system this coming summer, with 5-6 picks in the first two rounds of the draft. We've always been able to devleop players... and so did the Montreal Expos when they were managed by our guys. They consistently put good teams on the field despite low revenues because people like Beinfest and people in player development knew what they were doing with the farm system. Even if we keep a low payroll team (no more than 60 million per year, say), I think we'll be very competitive every single year.