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http://money.cnn.com/2005/02/16/news/econo...dex.htm?cnn=yes

 

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said Wednesday the economy is in good shape but warned that Americans urgently needed to save more -- and he endorsed the idea of private accounts as part of Social Security reform.

 

But while Greenspan waded into one of the more contentious issues facing Congress by coming out in favor of fundamental changes in the Social Security system, he urged caution. The Fed chief said the move toward private accounts should be gradual to limit borrowing needed to keep benefit payments while payroll taxes are diverted into the new accounts.

 

And under questioning by Democrats, he conceded that private accounts by themselves would not boost the nation's saving rate. But he said that not making changes to Social Security was risky and not sustainable.

 

He urged action before 2008 to prepare Social Security for the coming wave of retiring "baby boomers," and said it was "imperative to restore fiscal discipline" in the United States to help narrow the nation's huge trade deficit.

 

"If you're going to move to private accounts, which I approve of, (you) have to do it in a cautious, gradual way," he said in response to the first question he received from Committee Chairman Richard Shelby, an Alabama Republican.

 

In response to another question from the ranking Democrat on the committee, Paul Sarbanes of Maryland, Greenspan said he would back some borrowing for the transition to private accounts, but not more than $1 trillion. Some experts say $2 trillion or more might have to be borrowed to pay for the move to the accounts.

 

Greenspan said the current system of paying promised benefits to retirees cannot be sustained as the Baby Boomers start retiring.

 

"There are basically two models we're confronting, one a pay-as-you-go model, if we can fully fund, will work, and the other is the forced savings model. I've always supported a move to private accounts. The issue with respect to the financing is difficult to answer. But because the pay-as-you-go system will be very difficult to manage, we need an alternative," he said.

 

"Real progress on these issues will unavoidably entail many difficult choices," he said in his opening comments. "But the demographics are inexorable, and call for action before the leading edge of baby boomer retirement becomes evident in 2008."

Bullish on economy

 

On the economy, Greenspan said the central bank's recent policy of gradually raising interest rates to end an era of cheap money has worked well in keeping the economy growing while keeping inflation in check.

 

But he tempered his optimism by warning that the relatively tranquil economic conditions of recent decades must not be taken for granted.

 

"History cautions that people experiencing long periods of relative stability are prone to excess," he said in his remarks to the Senate Banking Committee. "We must thus remain vigilant against complacency, especially since several important economic challenges confront policymakers in the years ahead."

 

Greenspan was relatively bullish on economy, even as he acknowledged problems including the nation's low savings rate and ongoing sluggish hiring by employers.

 

"All told, the economy seems to have entered 2005 expanding at a reasonably good pace, with inflation and inflation expectations well anchored," he said. "On the whole, financial markets appear to share this view."

 

Before Greenspan began testifying, Sarbanes and Jim Bunning, a Republican from Kentucky and frequent Greenspan critic, urged the Fed to pause on its path of measured rate hikes.

 

"If you don't see any evidence of inflation, I would hope you take that into consideration at the next meeting," Bunning said. "You don't have to raise rates just because many expect you to do so. Low interest rates are not necessarily a bad thing."

 

But economists said Greenspan's comments are a sure sign the Fed will keep to the path of measured rate hikes.

 

"Yes, Greenspan does admit the obvious, that the real federal funds rate has risen considerably, but he quickly concludes that the rate 'remains fairly low'," said Anthony Chan, senior economist with JPMorgan Fleming Asset Management. "This is Fed-speak for the notion that the Fed will continue to raise rates by a quarter percentage point ... as far as the eye can see."

 

Greenspan acknowledged that business spending has lagged behind corporate profits, adding that caution has depressed hiring compared to other post-war recoveries.

 

"In contrast to the typical pattern early in previous business-cycle recoveries, firms have appeared reluctant to take on new workers and have remained focused on cost containment," he said.

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Bush is apparently going to raise taxes for social security.

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Thats not entirely true. The Bush administration are exploring the idea of raising the money "cap". As of right now I believe they only tax up to $90,000, anything over does not get taxed for Social Security. They are contemplating raising that figure.

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If nothing is done with Social Security, two things could happen. Either it will go broke and people won't ever get it, or if we wait too long to fix, the burden on society with taking care of Social Security obligations will lower income and lower American's ability to take care of their children to a degree that would be horribly wrong and unfair to the future prospects of the country.

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